table: 2/2 NLHEM
villain: reg, can adjust, bluffs a bit too often, but knows how to extract the maximum out of situations. He is used to playing big pots, likes a big stack and usually has it. Overal good player.
me: villain most likely knows me as a bit of a nit. Today i have been reraising him a few times in position with good hands, I've called down a 3 barrel bluf today, he started playing a lot more safe today, I liked it.
We are the two table captains, with a 700+ € effective stack.

preflop: villain raises 18€ on a few limpers. Standard, villain does this too often.
I have AQo and raise to 64, everyone folds, villain calls pretty smooth (he did that before with QTo, but got a bit more cautious afterwards).

flop: Ad7d2h, villain checks, I bet 60, villain calls very fast, smooth, does not put any thought into it, makes me think his range is JT...KQ flushdraw, A9-AK. There could potentially be some big pocket pairs in his hand, as villain does not 4-bet often preflop. Can't think of too many hands he would call so easily.

turn: Qc (Bingo!) Villain checks. With the pot being +/- 260, and villain having flushdraws in his range I decide to make him pay for more cards. I bet 180.
This is where the **** hits the fan. Villains voice creeks an all in, hands are shaking so badly he needs help to put the chips forward. No faking it, this was legit. For a seasoned reg villain used to play big pots ... My guts sais I'm somehow beat.

I go into the tank for 3-4 minutes (sorry table), trying to find a fold really. I can't see how I can fold this. If he didn't shake like that, I would have thought for 3 seconds considering the 77, and easily call as the odds are in my favour. This is where you guys tell me what you would do (think this through before reading on).

My reasoning: flushdraws are off the table. The hand is made in my opinion. I consider all of the hands that fit the profile and can find 4 - 5 hands.
77: can't 4-bet preflop, could potentially call imo. Can slowplay 2 streets and makes complete sense to shake for a pot worth more than 2 weeks of dayjob income. 3 ways to have this hand
AQ: well there's some out there, this hand completely fits the story. 3 ways to make this hand.
AA: slowplayed like crazy. shove to make my flushdraw pay. 1 way to make this hand.
QQ: O this hand makes sense. Crying call on the flop, this player is very capable of floating out of position. 3 ways to make this hand.
A7: well ... I try to rule this one out as I believe he would smoothcall rather than shake-shove.

3 out of 10 hands i split, 7 out of 10 I lose. I find the discipline to fold face up . Regardless I was proud of my reasoning and in my head I was saving 400+ € still behind. Villain shows AhQh, what would recover me my 300 € invested at that point. Personally I still believe I acted right, but am very curious to different opinions.

Thanks heaps,
B

bah, weird spot, 400 to call into 1400 I probably just click it in. if we really wanted to mix I guess we can fold the AxQd combos in our range, there's probably not a ton of money to be made here calling when vil shoves the remainder of a 350BB stack, so for variance sake I guess I don't mind folds either. just do whatever, go crazy.

two things...
1 if you're not comfortable making calls like this then it's ok to rewind to preflop and not 3bet this hand
2 in the bottom section where you are counting combos there are 4 combos left of AQ

Snap call

Strange situation. I wouldn't expect 77 or A7 to have the shaky hands on the turn. They didn't have it on the flop and the turn didn't help those hands. Unless villain has a history of breaking up when moving in those hands don't make sense. Given the situation the only hand I would expect an honest shaky hand reaction is improving to a set of queens on the turn. I have also known a few that could fake it, but that sort of angle shooter quickly gets a reputation and you should know about it if a regular could do that.

That said, there are some villains I would fold this to because they are just that transparently readable. There are more I would likely sigh call depending on the exact amount in the pot.

You got to call here. Anything else is just bad and this isn’t even close. I’m sorry to be blunt but it’s true.

-you beat some plausible valuecombos V can have and split with others

-you’re beat only by 5combos and some of those might play differently pre/otf

-however unlikely it might be, villain is still allowed to bluff here and if he is any good he will some % of the time. Esp since hero is folding top two face up. I mean why would you ever do that?

-odds

-fysical tells only affect decicions when the situation is close or the tell is really obvious. Here it isn’t. Since shaking hands usually are a signal of stressful situations more so than hand strenght, villains hands could just as easily be shaking when he is holding AQhh, KTdd or AA.

Just wanted to add that folding AQ w/ d is prob fine or at least much closer decision.

Grunch: Folding face up is awful. Folding or calling is iffy, given tell, and without tell it's a snap call.

easy call