V is a white male in his late fifties. I just sat at this table and he's been checking his emails or something the entire time. Hasn't played a hand in the 6-7 hands I've been here.
2/5
EP limps, hero raises to 25 (600) AcAd
V calls from SB and EP calls.
Flop (75) KhJd9h V leads fo 50 EP folds and hero calls.
Turn (175) Kc V bets 140. Hero?
QT is 16 combos, KJ is 9. JJ and 99 are 6. J9s is 3. The possibility of the large # of flopped straight combos is what makes the flop a possibly very tight fold. Further, this texture is terrible for you. You have no real backdoor equity. You will almost never see a run-out you like. K, Q, J, T, hearts are pretty bad. That's ~20 cards. Villain's flop bet sizing is very good / doesn't suggest weakness. Him betting this flop texture (hits ranges hard, very wet, very dynamic) is strong, and I expect a turn bet very often, yet I don't think I can keep calling down on the vast majority of run-outs. We can't play a large pot here. Even regardless of run-out, we already lose to so many credible combos. Finally, people put you on AK; the 2/3 PSB donk on a K-high board is especially strong.
The turn K is certainly one such run-out. Turn looks like a very clear fold.
I mean, it can't be bad to peel one flop bet here. He certainly could have and bet AK, KQ, KT; perhaps even pair + draws like QJ and JT, and he may check the turn with some frequency when he has those or otherwise expose his strength through bet sizing. And we do have position.
But I think I would make a fairly tight flop fold.
There's just enough of a chance of TP betting out on the flop to keep me in with AA. However with that disappearing and the villain still pounding the pot on the turn, it is time to go.
F (80): SPR is 7 (assumes Vs have 575 as well). I normally raise donk bets like this, probably because I usually assume they are weak made hands or a draw. Here I'd raise for value to something like $160.
T (180): As played, I'm folding. We don't beat too many hands that this V would call our PF raise out of the SB and donk barrell; about the only hand that might do this is AhJh, knowing he can rep trips on the turn.
I like how you played it.
Fold turn...it always sucks to fold AA but that's how you stay profitable and don't have to tell your friends how you aces got cracked
QT is 16 combos, KJ is 9. JJ and 99 are 6. J9s is 3. The possibility of the large # of flopped straight combos is what makes the flop a possibly very tight fold. Further, this texture is terrible for you. You have no real backdoor equity. You will almost never see a run-out you like. K, Q, J, T, hearts are pretty bad. That's ~20 cards. Villain's flop bet sizing is very good / doesn't suggest weakness. Him betting this flop texture (hits ranges hard, very wet, very dynamic) is strong, and I expect a turn bet very often, yet I don't think I can keep calling down on the vast majority of run-outs. We can't play a large pot here. Even regardless of run-out, we already lose to so many credible combos. Finally, people put you on AK; the 2/3 PSB donk on a K-high board is especially strong.
The turn K is certainly one such run-out. Turn looks like a very clear fold.
I mean, it can't be bad to peel one flop bet here. He certainly could have and bet AK, KQ, KT; perhaps even pair + draws like QJ and JT, and he may check the turn with some frequency when he has those or otherwise expose his strength through bet sizing. And we do have position.
But I think I would make a fairly tight flop fold.
I probably call this flop but I think Willyman is right and a fold is better because most villains with AK are not donking into hero. Turn is obvious fold since it's easy for you to have AK here. Villain is representing AK or better pretty strongly and if he has it you don't have many outs.
Villain's line looks super strong. I think that a made str8 would likely check/raise or check/call flop but a set/2 pair would certainly donk lead and lead the turn (with the FH) as well.
I think the flop is a call but the turn is a clear fold.
I normally raise donk bets like this, probably because I usually assume they are weak made hands or a draw.
This is a fairly big leak in my opinion. Obviously depends upon the player, but a lot of donk bets are disproportionately strong rather than weak. Also decent players that notice this tendency will be able to exploit it fairly easily.
I wouldn't call. Raising otf and folding are both okay considerations to me, leaning towards raising, it makes the rest of the hand play way easier and gets value. Folding 6 hands doesn't make him a nit, it's 6 hands, he can have plenty of worse hands.
This is a fairly big leak in my opinion. Obviously depends upon the player, but a lot of donk bets are disproportionately strong rather than weak. Also decent players that notice this tendency will be able to exploit it fairly easily.
Yup. I am donk leading hard a ton when I hit a set. Of course it is Villain dependent but this has been common play for years in live games.
Check/raise screams strength while a donk lead takes them out of their comfort zone and confuses them to death (or getting felted with near zero equity)
A donk bet on a wet board is often a strong hand motivated by fear of giving a free card if the flop checks through. For some players, this describes the entirety of their donking range, while other players are capable of betting draws or making "see where you're at" bets.
Against some players, the correct play is to call their flop bet with the intention of folding to most turn bets. If they check the the turn, you're probably good and can either bet or check behind, depending on how you predict the river action will go. If they bet the turn, it sometimes becomes obvious that they probably put on an top pair or an overpair and are still willing to bet into you. If it were me playing this hand against my usual regs, they often have AK beat because that's what they put me on. If I called again, they might check-call a straight or 99 because my not folding looks pretty strong. You probably don't have my image or player pool, so the hand ranges involved are going to be different in your case.
This is a fairly big leak in my opinion. Obviously depends upon the player, but a lot of donk bets are disproportionately strong rather than weak. Also decent players that notice this tendency will be able to exploit it fairly easily.
Hmmmm....always great to hear other opinions. Thanks for sharing. In my experience, they are usually weak.
