Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I always find preflop pretty difficult at this table with AQo in EP, but in the end we managed to get this 3ways, position on one of the opponents, and a nice SPR around 12ish which gives us some wiggle room postflop.
I'd also bet large on this flop.
I'm a little undecided on the turn. One of the main draws got there (JT), although obviously the flush draw hasn't. Are we comfortable stacking off if he check/raises? He could have some junky two pair in his range, so perhaps we should be? But in general, for getting in just 2.5% of our stack preflop, I'm not comfortable stacking off against most players even with top two. We also have a draw to a nuttish hand that we'd hate to get blown off of (i.e. if we're thinking of folding to a check/raise). And checking back will show a lot of weakness and might get a busted flush draw to bluff the river (noting a flush draw will bust 1 in 5 times, giving him far more opportunities to bluff than to value bet). Course, pot is huge and giving a free card with a hand so good is kinda meh; it's debatable at the very least (imo).
I'm probably calling the river given the odds. It's possible he's made a junky two pair (possibly on the turn) and yet realizes he shouldn't be going to war with it against our EP raising range on this board. He did call an almost PSB on the turn, although I guess he could have a gutshot to go with his flush draw.
ETA: I'm not convinced Villain had nut flush having shown the As, cuz that would mean he simply check/called TP + nut flush draw on the flop (which is the proper play, imo, although most opponents incorrectly overplay this hand by raising).
Glotsofdifferentoptionsinthishand,imoG
I like betting the turn because this villain is known to be loose, we are very often ahead with top two, and I don't think we are getting raised that often on the turn. We will sometimes get raised and get put in a tough spot, but I think this hand is just too strong to not go for value with given how many hands we beat and how many draws he can have. Sure he can have JT or slowplayed 99 but he also has a ton of two pair combos, draws and some stubborn aces.
River I feel good about but I could easily be wrong. My decision was based on population tendencies and I think he rarely has a bluff since most of his bluffs got there, I've shown a ton of strength, and I think he's rarely if ever bluffing here without the As.