Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
LLSNL Vs are notorious unbelievers on paired boards, especially when the pair and the odd are all low cards. They know you didn't hit a 224 board, and for some reason they discount overpairs that they would usually have in you range on a ragged flop. I've pretty much given up c-betting paired flops with air entirely. Instead, I'll usually go for a delayed c-bet OTT.
AP, agree that turn is a good barrel card, but once he calls it, I'm done. Even if he has 55-JJ (which I agree dominate his holdings, though he has A4s, 44, etc. in there too), if he called with it twice, I don't think the Tc is the card that will make him unwilling to call a third time.
If I did barrel, I wouldn't make it that big. $100 probably gets just about as many folds as $150 here.
A c-bet is not trying to fold any pairs, though. IME, most villains have a high fold rate on these boards because they have so many weak, unpaired hands that won't/can't continue.
c-betting $10 with our entire range and playing poker on the turn accomplishes a lot here. Most of the hands in your range benefit from a bet either as value, a bluff or protecting equity. A 1/3 PSB only has to work 25% of the time to auto-profit, and it's very hard for villain to defend 75% of his range even against a bet so small (try to do it for him and see what types of hands he has to continue with). With AK specifically he will tend to fold hands that have decent equity like QJ/QT/JT etc, call with some Ax that you dominate, and call with PPs which you have decent equity against.
You can make a case for sizing up with your value hands this deep since a lot of villain's continuing range (PPs, mostly) is insensitive to price up to around pot.
I'm not sure I like barreling both the turn and river. If his range on the turn is mostly 55-JJ, I'm not sure he'll fold much to a second barrel. If he is folding those hands a lot he's left with a lot of hands he's unwilling to fold by the river. If he's folding those hands at some appropriate middling frequency on the turn triple barreling could be good and this is a good hand to do it with as we have two overs on the turn and block his calling range on the river (A
4
, AA/KK/AQ)
Villain is uncapped on this board, so I'm not sure I want to overbet river as a bluff and wouldn't do it for value either. I think your $150 sizing gets a fold from the hands we're targeting.