1-3 NL $500 buy in during WSOP month in Vegas.

Villian is young college kid in Vegas from Buffalo for the summer trying to play well, has been playing for about an hour with nothing remarkable or out of line, and I don't remember a prior notable hand he was in. Bought in for $300 and now has about $370.

Hero is older, solid but not quite TAG, $670 in CO.

V raises to $15 pre from HJ, and Hero calls with AcQd, Button calls.

Flop: ($49), Ad 5c 4s. V leads for $40, Hero calls, button folds.

Turn: ($129) As. V leads for $85, Hero calls. At this point V has led into an Ace flop 2x, and Hero is thinking, "Oh wonderful, AK vs AQ.

River: ($299) Tc. Villian bets $200, so now I am getting 2.5 to 1 to call an initial raiser who led all three streets. I am losing to AK, ATs, A5s, A4s, 55, 44, and the unlikely 32s. It is very doubtful AJ would bet all streets, and I push AQ. The only valid draw is 76, especially 76s which picked up a big draw on the turn. If he is thinking at all, he should put me on an A, set, or 76s.

My river action?

Comments on all three streets?

Mandatory threebet pre.

Fold the river. The kid shouldn't really be betting AJ here, but he might anyway. Even if he does though, giving him { AT+, 55, 44, A5s, A4s } which all seems reasonable from the HJ, we don't have enough equity to call.

I don't think there's any way he runs a bluff here. There aren't many bluffs he could have anyway, but after you don't fold the turn, it's obvious you have an ace or better. You're also uncapped and could easily have any of the available boats.

My guess is that this guy is likely opening fairly wide in this spot so I'd probably lean to a 3bet with AQo; if we had AQs I might lean towards a flat since it plays better multiway and thus we don't hate if others come along (whereas with AQo I think we'd rather take it down now / get this HU).

I also call the flop but it might bet the last money I put in the pot. The board ain't that drawy and he's betting large into 2 opponents. If he doesn't slow down on the turn, it's very likely our hand isn't best.

I probably hero fold the turn. What, we really think this guy is barrelling air or AJ? It's more likely he's praying we have an Ace, imo.

I would also fold the river. I just don't think most opponents show up / play a busted draw like this enough, but it's possible my player pool is different.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Both ChrisV and GG agreed: (1) 3 bet pre and (2) fold the river in spite of trip A's with a Q, as what hands can I realistically beat when someone leads 3x into an Ace paired board, and there are very few possible draws.

While understanding V's range, I tanked for a minute then called the river, perhaps because I had been pushed off a hand earlier in the session. Amazingly, he shows 76s, and barreled/bluffed 3x with the one possible draw on this board. He played this hand even worse than I did; a hand that would have played quite differently if I had 3 bet pre.

Bluff is fine if he thinks you can fold an ace, but that's a dubious assumption vs like 95% of LLSNLers. Sometimes when you try to exploit the meta, you get counter-exploited.

Don’t fold the river when he could be value betting Worse. Do value bet AJ in villains position.

Villain did not play the hand worse than you. Both hands are pretty well played. Villains bluff is not trying to get you to fold a good ace.

Lol this river is a super easy call, folding is fps

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When we call preflop/flop/turn on this fairly drawless board, most opponents are putting us on an Ace. *If* they are value betting something weakish like AJ (which most opponents don't, imo), then they're betting smallish as a blocking bet fearing they are up against AK/AQ, not huge and likely value towning themselves.

As for the results, basically congrats on running into one of the few players who is capable of triple barrelling and running into like one of the only busted draws he can have. Overall against the majority of the pool you're likely up against, I doubt you're going to be good enough of the time here.

ETA: I was in a somewhat similar situation a couple of sessions ago. I limp in AKo to reraise, only one other limper, and then a raise out of the blinds. We're about $300 effective, and I decide to flat (villain is unknown, but I'm facing a raise out-of-the-blinds, and I'm cool inviting a dominated Ace along and playing in position, meh?). Anyhoo, A93rAr2r runout, and I've called down to the river where he bets $100 into like $220 leaving about $120 behind. In the moment I convince myself this is a blocking bet with AQ enough of the time and shove, and get snap called by 99. Players at this level are super MUBSy; they are always seeing the worst and convinced we've flopped a set or have AK when they have AQ, etc. In general, they are not 4barrelling these types of boards with worse A's enough, imo.

GimoG

I don’t see how you fold this river unless you know villain is a huge nit. Your hand is underrepped given how passive you’ve played it and villain is def making this bet with AQ/AJ imo and will sometimes show up here with 67s, 78/QK/JK/JQ spades bluffs (though people do typically underbluff at this level).

Even if we give him no bluffs in his range though, calling is pretty good. There’s only 4 combos of AK, 3 combos of AT, 1 combo of A5s, 1 combo of A4s and 3 combos of 55 and 44 for 15 combos that beat us. Compare this to 4 combos of AJ and 3 combos of AQ (count 1.5 as a chop) and you’ve got 5.5 combos you beat against 15 combos that beat you for very close to 2.5 to 1 odds and that’s with ZERO bluffs!

Start mixing in a couple bluffs and calling becomes very profitable. Turn card bringing flush draw and pairing TP should really embolden some c-bets that pick up the flush draw to keep barreling and makes it less likely you have TP.

Obviously the big question is can he play AJ like this. I honestly don’t see why not. He should be opening a lot of Ax from the HJ and you showed no aggression to indicate AK or AQ anywhere in the hand. With flush and straight draws on the turn, wouldn’t he think you’d play faster if you had a big ace? I don’t see why he can’t be trying to put you in a tough spot if you have AJ/A2s+. You have many more combos of those hands that don’t beat him than you have AK/AQ, especially considering the passive action you’ve displayed. I really think this is a must call and if you ran into AK/boat, it’s just a cooler.