Im at an action table. Lots of big pots. Almost insane action actually.
2 limpers to me and I raise to $25 with AhQh OTB. BB and both limpers call.
BB ($400). Terrible player in many ways. Earlier called a raise with KJ and then led out with a double pot sized bet on a AQT flop because "when I have it, Im taking it down".
EP ($400). No real reads. Has played tight so far.
HJ ($600) limper...unimportant
Hero ($550)
Flop ($100) Qc 9h 4d. BB checks, EP leads out for $45. HJ folds.
In my experience, when someone leads into the raiser they almost always have a medium strength hand. If I ever see someone do it with a set I make a note of it because its pretty rare. There are no draws so I call. BB also calls.
Turn ($235) 8s. BB checks, EP bets $125. What do you do here?
On flop, JT is a pretty clear draw here. With 2 more players still in it I probably raise to $115 or so. If you were head's up I'd flat, and I don't hate it multi-way either.
As played, once you call flop I think you should call turn and look to gii on river. Let Villain keep leading at you. JT did just get there but think we're committed.
Turn comes down to 'are we prepared to call off 80bb with TPTK?'. Without reads beyond seems tight and given table is all action, I say 'yes'. So I call turn and call river. If BB x/raises turn, I fold.
Mostly I'm trying to get into EPs head here (I'll worry about BB when and if I have to). So we think EP's tight - and here he is donk-barrelling us.
Generally I agree that a smallish donk lead indicates a marginal hand... and calling is correct, IMO. But when he leads the turn - I think sizing becomes paramount. If his sizing, relative to the pot, decreases OTT - then it supports the marginal hand that doesn't really know where it is. If the bet increases - it typically means that he feels the hook is sunk and now it's time to reel it in.
In this case, V goes from a 45% sizing to a 53%.... hmmmm. I'd think he'd bet set's/2p more.. but a straight could act like this... or AQ/KQ... possible QJ. SO I think I'm calling (I don't really mind BB coming in) and looking again at the sizing on the river.
In this case, V goes from a 45% sizing to a 53%.... hmmmm. I'd think he'd bet set's/2p more.. but a straight could act like this... or AQ/KQ... possible QJ. SO I think I'm calling (I don't really mind BB coming in) and looking again at the sizing on the river.
We're making our commitment decision on the turn. We can't call turn, get half of effective stacks in with TPTK, and then fold river.
We're making our commitment decision on the turn. We can't call turn, get half of effective stacks in with TPTK, and then fold river.
FWIW this is my view as well. We are deciding now whether to call it all off or give up.
I prefer a call but I don't think folding is terrible. If we were committing a larger stack or had more info on villain therefore narrowing his range, I lean to a fold.
The thing that makes me nervous is this guy barrelling into 2 players, now he probably knows BB is a tard but ranges tighten in MW pots. Still, for 80bb, I'm calling.
Okay... that would seem to eliminate made straights or any 9's. It really feels to me that we are in the lead (or at least chopping). So I want some value.
Given my prev assumed range (and taking out the straight) I've got him on an AQ or KQ (smaller chance of a QJ). So how do we target that range? I guess about $175 (trying to keep in the bottom of his range). But a shove wouldn't be wrong either.
@MIB - OTT I wasn't really suggesting we likely fold river - but I'm still going to wait to see the river, the bet size and V's demeanor. Maybe it's my limit background - but I rarely feel 100% committed until im putting the final chips in.
huh... wouldn't have put him on that... I imagine if he bet the turn harder he could have got you off the hand.
I certainly didnt put him on that either, but I doubt I wouldve folded if he bet more. I read his flop bet as a weak Q. If he hits a 3 outter on the turn with a safe looking card, good for him. If it was head up, I probably wouldve raised the turn.
I certainly didnt put him on that either, but I doubt I wouldve folded if he bet more. I read his flop bet as a weak Q. If he hits a 3 outter on the turn with a safe looking card, good for him. If it was head up, I probably wouldve raised the turn.
Well you definitely had a good read OTF... I've seen people donk with draws many times - so a big get OTT might have convinced me that he'd led with JT.
In this case, V goes from a 45% sizing to a 53%...
Never mind those percentages, he goes from 45 bucks to 125. This will definitely be seen as a big bet at any live tabel imo. That's why I would pobably fold the turn.
Well you definitely had a good read OTF... I've seen people donk with draws many times - so a big get OTT might have convinced me that he'd led with JT.
I honestly didnt even see that JT got there until I posted the HH
