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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 09-06-2016, 09:16 PM   #1
westwd
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TPTK vs an all in from a smallish stack

This was a weird spot for me. I really didn't know what to do.

1/2 live, the villain just sat down with 100 and I had never played with him before so no read. Hero stack is 800.

I'm in the Hijack with Ad9d. There were 3 limpers to me so I also limped. The button limps, SB limps, and the BB raises to 6. Everyone calls.

Flop comes 973, 2 clubs, no diamonds, everyone checked to me and I bet 20. The button raises all in for 88 total. Everyone folds to me.

So the pot is roughly 130 and I have to call 68. I think he either has a set or a flush draw. His stack size was just the right amount that I think he shoves with either of those hands. With no reads I didn't know whether to lean one way or the other. I ended up calling but the more I thought about it I think it was a bad call. At the time my thought process was this:

If he has a set I win 10% of the time(discounting the idea of him having 99). If he has a flush draw I win 65% of the time. So if those hands are 50/50 my EV is (.1*130 + .65*130 =~85) minus the 68 to call =17

Since I couldn't find a reason to lean one way or the other I put it on 50/50 but there really isn't reasoning behind it.

What should have been my thought process here?



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Old 09-06-2016, 09:26 PM   #2
iraisetoomuch
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Re: TPTK vs an all in from a smallish stack

there are 7 combos of sets.

There are at least 13 combos of reasonable flush draws.

So maybe 35% of the time we have 10% equity, and 65% of the time we have 65% equity.
For about 45% equity. So call.
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Old 09-06-2016, 09:30 PM   #3
MIB211
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Re: TPTK vs an all in from a smallish stack

Call. IRTM did the math above but a couple of other thoughts:

Think your range for V is too narrow given no reads. Why can't he have 97? Can have T8 or 86 too, as well as worse 9x and A9 for a chop.

Also you're about 2% against a set.
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Old 09-06-2016, 09:41 PM   #4
westwd
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Re: TPTK vs an all in from a smallish stack

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Call. IRTM did the math above but a couple of other thoughts:

Think your range for V is too narrow given no reads. Why can't he have 97? Can have T8 or 86 too, as well as worse 9x and A9 for a chop.

Also you're about 2% against a set.
Good call on the 2% lol

I thought he had enough chips that he wouldn't shove with one of those hands. Maybe I should have put some weight on those types of hands also.

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Old 09-06-2016, 10:20 PM   #5
Dizzyqtp
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Re: TPTK vs an all in from a smallish stack

Calling for sure.

So the pot is: $30 (preflop) + $20 (your bet) + 88 (his bet) - rake $6 = $132 like you said
We need to call $68 to win $132, so we need 68/(132+68) = 34% equity to call.

We are only reasonably behind 97 and sets - there are tons of worse 9x and draws that can be shoving to give you much more than 34% equity.
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