$1-$2 No Limit Cash Game

UTG ($470) Very Passive. Will check-call down with TPTK. If he ever bets, he has you beat.

MP ($350) Maniac. The reason we are at the table. He raises preflop with almost anything. He continuation bets always. He will call down with the worst of it.

Hero BB ($570) Tight-Aggressive

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Preflop:
UTG limps, MP raises to $12, Three calls,
Hero BB has A8 and calls.
UTG calls $12.
6 players.
Pot = $72

Flop: 854
Checked to MP. MP bets $25. Folded to Hero. Hero Raises to $100. UTG raises all-in for $458. MP calls all-in for $338.
Hero ???

Pot = $868
To call = $356

UTG does not make this push with anything less than a set.
MP can make this call with as little as an overpair.

I am obviously way behind and am drawing only to my Flush outs.
Even if I hit, I may need to dodge a paired board.
Do I have the odds to call this?

Please advise.

--CM

Easiest call of your life, you have the best possible draw (ace high), youre also drawing to the nuts and you have top pair with two pair and trip outs and youre blocking top set.

Pot odds wise, im pretty sure its a easy +ev get it in situation.

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CM, get yourself an equity calculator and you can do it all on your own. That way, you'll have more common scenarios down for when you're at the table.

If UTG has a set or straight, you still have ~35% equity, which is enough to make the call. I also think your numbers are off somewhere. Pot should be $968. If UTG and MP are stacking off, the final pot should be ~$1321 if there's a $5 rake and $36 from the three other pf callers. (470*2+350+12*3)-5 = 1321... and 358/1321=.271, so yes... go ahead and call.

EDIT: You also have a runner-runner draw to a FH.

You need ~29.2% equity to break even on a call.

I think even in a bad case scenario, you have it:

Also, he may be passive, but you never know when he just decides to get it in with a hand like 54s, and you're mega live.

Edit: I thought this sounded bad, but you forgot your own $100 in the middle. The pot size is $968, so you're actually getting 2.7:1 on a call. Now we just need 27%, which you for sure have.

Yes, you are drawing to nut flush but if you could be absolutely sure 100% villain has a set (I don't know how sure could you be about this ?), If he's got a set has got to be the middle or bottom set because you're blocking top-set. But if he's got that goddamned set you got only 7 clean outs to flush. Two of the flush cards will pair the board.

Anyway, it's a very big draw to the nuts plus a pair. I will not fold. I'm drawing and if I lose, ... well .., wtf? I lose and stay all night and grind my way back because I have nothing better to do at home anyway. So, here I am at The V where my office is. (LOL)

If I had two pair I would toss it in the muck.

Calling it off is standard.

In this particular spot, although it's unlikely, it's possible one has a set and one has two pair, so they block each other. Plus you have the eight to block. So calling it off is probably the most popular play, by a good bit. It's up to you.

No. Worst possible is 20.20%.

horrible play raising a hand with a lot of equity. now you have to throw it out. calling is definitely -EV. and who says villain can't have top set? unless you see 3 8's he can have top set. incorrect understanding of what blocking cards means.

As played call i actually think flatting first bet is best cause completing your flush actually allows you to stack all lower flushes later and a8 can have strong showdown value.

Maybe you can show your math. Even if we range both villains to just sets and straights, we have the equity required. I think someone even posted the results. We only need to win this over 27% to show a profit. Also if we have a lot of equity, why not raise?

Pile the money in.

And the wheel

I don't love it but I'm shoveling it in assuming I'm behind but getting the right price. Would prefer UTG has the set. 6d7d would have you in a bad spot, but if that's what he has, then he has it. shouldn't have limp called 6d7d from UTG. Not really concerned at all w/ maniac. Ideally he's on a combo draw at best and in a horrible spot to your hand. UTG most likely has set, but I'm shoveling anyways.

That's why we use ranges

A range can not be proven nor disproven; it's an opinion. I sometimes play "outside" my range.

He still has 9 flush outs on the flop. He will not have dirty flush cards until the turn in this scenario.

Regardless, based on the size of the pot this is usually an easy call based on odds and equity especially with all of the action being dead. If there was more action possible on the turn, you could make a case for folding depending on the amount of action left.

UTG has 78 here. always. you are getting 2.5:1. the only real question is, how many diamonds are left in the deck? if both V's have diamonds, you have to muck it. If they both don't, you have to call. If just the maniac has diamonds, meh.

with the table dynamics, I would call. In a more passive game, I would problably fold.