2/5 game, effective stack 2000+, hero opens to 20 in MP with AKo, button calls, BB calls. Pot is 60.

Flop is Kh Jh 7x, we don't have a heart. BB checks, hero bets 40, button raises to 100, BB folds, hero calls. Pot is 260.

Turn is a brick. Off-suit 5 I think? Hero checks, button bets 200.

Hands we beat that might play this way: 7hXh, AhXh, QThh, and maybe Q9hh, T9hh, T8hh, 98hh.

Hands that beat us that might play this way: KJ, 77, and maybe K7s and J7s if button is calling super wide on the button - very possible for the generic LLSNL population, no idea for this particular player, first time playing with him.

There is surely a river bet coming regardless of what the river card is - this level of aggression so far suggests that a missed draw will keep bluffing, and a made hand would go for more value. I would be bluffcatching 2 streets against hands combo draws that have decent equity against us. And the made value hands have us crushed. So I elected to fold.

Thoughts?

I'm not so sure that V always fires the 3rd bullet. It's a close spot, but I really lean to calling turn and seeing if he gives up river. There are a lot of combo draws in range that V could have. 2p that make sense are just KJ and 77 for sets as JJ+ should be 3b pre. Even if we do give him K7 and J7s, that's only 12 combos. We can easily find enough draws to push our equity above 30%.

Seems like we have no reads, but in a close spot like this, you can size someone up based on their appearance... like a sliding scale between young kid in a hoodie and a centenarian with an oxygen tank. The more rec they look, the more I'd consider folding.

Hm, yea you're probably right, villain wouldn't fire the 3rd bullet 100% of the time. Definitely a decently high % though.

This guy was a middle aged Asian guy, pretty sharply dressed, and spoke confidently/articulately even with an accent. I didn't read him as a chump. Rest of the night he played a fairly TAG style and was up to around 4K by the time I left.

Why do you say the more recreational they look, the more you lean towards folding? Because rec players tend to underbluff?

"Why do you say the more recreational they look, the more you lean towards folding? Because rec players tend to underbluff?"

Absolutely true. I would get the feeling I was up against KJ and KJ probably won't like this runout at all.

Just fold flop unless BTN does dumb things like raise TP here for info, most people arent gonna mess around on this board when you cbet multiway and dont raise light enough

+1

Ive said it a million times. If you fold to the flop raise every single time in a spot like this, you will saving a hell of a lot of money. Hardly anyone will raise that flop without having you beat. Most everyone else who doesnt have you beat has a serious amount of equity and has position. Don't call the flop raise just to fold the turn. A big turn bet is coming almost every single time. You don't need it to see it to fold. Just anticipate it and fold the flop.

Unless Ive personally seen the particular player raise with this flop with AQ or worse, its an easy fold.

I think you gotta call the 60 on the flop and play a turn. It's a small raise...
Should note most of my play is online where this is never a fold on the flop EVER vs almost anyone.
Live I geuss plays different in spots like this?

I agree 100% with what MikeStarr is saying. 90% or so flop raises that I see are 2 pair or better. Unless you 1) start seeing V raise a lot of flops or see V raise with a draw, or 2) V raises and then shuts it down on the turn.......you should just fold on the flop.

As played, fold the turn. You have to expect V to bet $500 or so on the river.

Should probably just start c/c tptk if you're gonna fold vs a small raise otf on a draw heavy board.

If it's this easy to get people to lay down strong hands like this live I am gonna raise cbets a lot


What hands are we continuing with here? Sets and draws only? We folding aces too?

Minatorr- No way you are ever mucking this on bovada right? I know you aren't so Idk why I am even asking
And if for some reason you are it's a MASSIVE leak

When live players start raising Cbets with less than 2 pair, we will have to adjust. Live players are so passive it boggles the mind.

As an old 10/20 limit player, I feel like I’ve seen this semi bluff plenty of times right out of the Sklansky book. V would 3b his JJ and KK pre. He’s floating I think.

H levels himself with b/call and x/c. V has all the initiative now although I believe he’s still drawing. He’s using his positional advantage very well. I’d rather 3b flop and fold to jam than flat 200 turn leveling myself the whole way and ceding control of the hand to this V.

AP: At 1/2 or 1/3 I could find a fold. I don’t play a ton of 2/5, but I think trickier, better players are fully capable of this kind of play. I’m not folding putting this guy on 77 precisely or the KJ which we block. I’m calling and leading brick rivers.

I specialize in online too, and even in very aggro games, calling here is probably breakeven at best. At micros it’s a snap fold unless V is a donk. Live low stakes, it’s a huge leak in a vacuum unless V proves otherwise.

I am happy I came to this forum for advice instead of spewing my face off and calling people with weak holdings.

Thanks

Looks like I am gonna have to be doing more folding than I am used to.

Folding this flop to a 2.5x raise seems absolutely bonkers vs an unknown. I see people bluff flops/overvalue TP so often at 5/5, especially for such puny sizing.