Playing 2-5 at Belagio against reg, no read eff $500.

V raises to 20 UTG+3, tight ABC pro to right calls I flat AQo, Blind calls. QJ4r Villian fires 60, tight folds I Flat blind folds. 7 V fires $125. I had the sickest feeling that I was way behind so I made a tough fold that burns because it feels soooo nitty. I felt completely confident he is jamming river with everything in range.

Tough. Looks like V has KQ, QJ, AK or (less of the time) 44. With no reads I would fold once and feel out the table some more. He could be super loose with like Q4, J4, Q7, J7, and you dont know how often he is playing that garbage. Maybe I am too nitty, not very familiar with 2/5 also..

If I'm calling the flop bet, I'm pretty sure I'm calling the turn here...better yet, I might even raise this turn...but I'm just a donkey

This is exactly what my thought process was(I asked him and he told me very convincingly that he had 44). The part of me that is so doubtful I that I played the hand very passively by flatting pre and check flatting flop so its very possible that he puts me on a J and thinks he can buy a fold which is why is sizing is so large on turn.

V bet $60 into a flop pot of ~$60?

And $125 into a turn pot of ~$180?

Flop:$60(82-4)
Turn:$125(198)

A reg villain is rarely bluffing when fires flop into 4 people and then double barrels turn on a card that should change nothing (if he thinks of you as a reg as well). I'd imagine his value range is something like:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.267% 26.69% 09.57% 3312 1188.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 63.733% 54.16% 09.57% 6720 1188.00 { JJ+, 44, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }

so I'd call if this were the river but considering it's the turn and you're still likely to face a river jam, folding seems prudent unless he's particularly aggro with an above average number of bluffs in his range. It's admittedly very exploitable but that's not a huge deal in this spot imo

I think it's fine to go with your read. Judging by Vs bet sizing (if he is a good player) he is set setting up a river jam so if you don't feel comfortable calling the river it ok to fold the turn. In game idk if I could find a fold though.

wp

pot is $200 on turn. after he bets its $325. 125 to win 325 is a call if neverscurred ranges are right isn't it? and sometimes villain has AK or KT.

Thanks for this. Can you ELI5 how its exploitable? What software you use for range? Much Love

It's exploitable because AQ is near the top of your range on the turn (heck, if you're the type to raise 2p+ on this flop then AQ is the best hand you can have) so villain could theoretically just double barrel his entire range and print money against you. But you're not showing the fold and I doubt this particular spot will come up often enough in lol live sample sizes for that kind of exploitability to matter much; I'd just focus on making the most +EV play. And I used pokerstove for that equity calc

not a donkey, just probably putting him on a wishful range, instead of what is likely...AA+

just cause its $125 doesnt necessarily mean its a call...he is likely jamming the rvr, and calling down three streets with this hand vs the range we are against is absolutely absurd...the turn is our decision point to raise or fold...well, as played on the flop...

Raise to $75 pre.
AP: Call turn.

I think 3betting would be a mistake, especially if we have the button and can get a fish in the blinds to make a loose call with a dominated hand

3-betting isolates us with only hands that beat us post flop (QQ+ AK) and also folds out all of PFRs dominated hands that we can win a big pot against (AJ, AT, KQ, QJ). This is assuming the reg has a reasonable 3b calling range.

CALL for the love of jeebus, the board is so hard to have a strong hand and you've unrepped your TPTK

What are we beating though?

I think we only beat KQ and of course chop with AQ.

But QJ, KK, AA, QQ, JJ all beat us. I don't think a reg is going to fire two bullets on this board after we just called flop in a multiway pot. I don't think he'd even cbet this board multi way

It is essentially impossible to give you decent guidance without reads. However, here are just of few of the reads that you have as you sit down at the game that would help.

1. Male/Female
2. Age
3. How are they dressed
4. Are the chips stacked neatly
5. When he made the bets, did he cut out his chip neatly or have to count them
6. Time and Date

For example, if it is 1:30 in the afternoon on Monday, the villain is in his sixties, and drinking coffee, I'd fold pf. If it is Saturday morning at 3:30, the player is in his 20s to 30s, drunk off his ass while chatting to anyone who would listen and having a great time, I'm calling it down.

The problem was the call preflop. Who likes the call preflop? Is it better to raise or fold here?

Pre is fine. Why would we raise and Iso ourselves against a strong range? Why would we fold when we're ahead of a regs opening range?

Reads? What's your image?

The way I snipe it, assuming V1 bets JJ+, QT+ on the turn, at that point you should have 33% equity. So on the flop, you're indifferent. Call or not, money's about the same. If you think he might cbet TT or 88, so much the better.

If V1 is a tight, nitty player -- meaning he's unlikely to continue to put money in the pot unless he's nutted or nearly so -- I think the flop is a good call. Look for a check on the turn, bet a scare card if he does. Definitely fold when he bombs the turn.

If he's an aggressive TAGish player, I still call the flop. Then the question becomes, how often does he barrel the turn, and for how much. I still think the turn is a fold based on the bet sizing and the board. This is not a great board to try to push someone off overpair or TP/TK. I would think that with this board, and this bet, TAG probably has the goods.

If he's an insane lunatic, and he thinks you're the biggest nit in the world, I call all the way to the end.

Without reads, I would assume a 2/5 reg at Bellagio knows how to cbet but is unlikely to make a reckless bet ott, so I would favor call flop, fold turn.

Oops I showed the fold. Now how would the Meta change in your estimation?

I've been reading http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker...ine&id=2817110 about G-Bucks and Galfond says:
"I'm trying to get you to recognize how many hand combos make up a certain hand. For instance, when you think someone has a set, there are only three possible combos of each set, whereas there are 12 hand combos of top pair-top kicker. So if someone takes a line in which he has to have a set or a bluff, realize how unlikely it is that he has a set."

He told me after the hand he had 44 and reading this statement makes me realize I probably folded a winner although he still has lots of two pairs in his range, I just doubt he would lie about having a set if he had two pair which means a bluff is most likely.

In the article Galfond also talks about calculators:"There are programs available online where you can input a range of hands and see how your hand does against that range, and it accounts for hand combinations" writing this I assumed pokerstove wasnt one of these because I didn't think about hand combinations being accounted for but on 2nd thought it makes sense that they are. Is this correct?

I don't like to show folds (or anything you don't have to show, really) because now you're going to assume that he'll be barreling you lighter (which is the correct adjustment if you're folding AQ here), meaning you should call lighter, but there's a good chance he doesn't adjust at all and you just end up leveling yourself into some bad calls. You've put yourself in an unnecessarily tricky spot.

Villain's value range (at least how I estimated it) is actually pretty wide here so he'd still need a decent number of bluffs in his range for them to move the needle much combinotorically. But yeah, you should always be keeping combos in mind. For example, it's interesting to note that are almost as many KQ combos (8) as sets (9).

You're playing against a range of hands, so villain's actual holding is irrelevant. Even if he showed a bluff, all you can deduce is that there are at least some bluffs in his range (which we already know; we just don't know how many -- i suspect very few).

Yes, pokerstove takes combinations into account

fmp

Metagame-wise, by showing you folded top pair, you are establishing a reputation as a nit. An observant, aggressive player will therefore be inclined to bet scare cards on the turn or river. I agree with neverscurred that it may not hurt anything as long as you don't make a habit of it, but if someone starts crawling up your rectum you may have to adjust by making a hero call with top pair, assuming your hand-reading skills are up to it. Or switch tables, if it isn't.

I only show if a previously happy fish is starting to get frustrated because I'm running all over him, sometimes I will apologetically show a monster hand if I think it will make him happy, and render the impression that I'm on a heater.