Not really many interesting hands tonight but I thought this one was pretty similar to the "donk leads" post that has 55 replies on the front page right now.

(300)H = TAG reg
(300+)UTG2 = between loose passive and loose aggressive, playing about 30% of hands pre. Biggest fish at the table.
(300+)LJ = Plays about 30% of hands. Calling station, usually bets when he has it. Can bet big with big draws.
(250)CO = TAG reg. Solid winning player.

1/3

UTG2 open limps
LJ limps
CO limps
H btn has AK, makes it 35
3 callers

(140) K 9 8
x,x, CO bets out 70
H ?

Hmm, interesting.

Board: Ks 9d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.359% 53.35% 00.01% 11619 2.50 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 46.641% 46.63% 00.01% 10156 2.50 { 8d8s, 8h8s, K9s, JcTc, JdTd, 98s, 7c6c, 7d6d, 7s6s, JTo }

I'm not sure how realistic this range is, but let's go with it. I don't really expect a TAG reg to overlimp 88, let alone 99, but for good measure I put in two sets. I only put in half of the JTs combos, because he could also raise that pre, but I do think every JTo is possible, which he first overlimps and then calls closing the action.

So you should be ahead even without some random KJo/KTo weirdness. I would call and see what happens.

On one hand, a “solid TAG winning player” leading out here should be fairly strong. On the other hand, wtf is he saying he has? There’s only one combo of K9s (Kh9h), two of K8s, two of 98s. A “solid winning player” raises the pocket pairs that make sets on this board.

So besides those you’re ahead. Given stacks I don’t think you have much choice but to shove. 4 way with stack to pot of 1.5, you flop TPTK on rainbow board with no straight possible (but tons of straight draws). If this guy somehow outflopped you, or one of the fish bingo’d their 98o, try to get there, else reload.


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I think its an in between spot for CO to be raising 88/99 here. If you flop a set vs the fishes TP hes going to stack off regardless if you raised it pre or not. CO is not a heavy iso raiser, Id say the bottom(ish) of his range to raise the limpers here would be AJo+, 99+ and I think he would call with suited connector type hands and a lot of PP's, KTs/ATs type stuff to keep the fish in the hand who is not 100% calling every raise pre.

I am going to guess his bet means that he didn't want it checked around and give everyone else a free card but hes tricky enough to be doing this with really good hands too. He knows I am going to check flop if I missed.

Ha, love our 12x preflop sizing versus these players with these stacks, and lol at results. We must play in the same game.

I would probably lean to making an extremely nitty fold on the flop.

The CO is a solid winning player. Is this how he plays KQ, really? He's going to donk his OESD JTs as a semi-bluff with little FE against this field and possibly risk getting raised for stacks, really? He can easily be overlimping 99/88 at a very loose payoffy table and just setmining / making sure he doesn't get blown out of the hand preflop facing a 3bet. Yeah, the board isn't that drawy and he could check to the preflop raiser, but the preflop raiser checks behind so many hands here and he mostly just wants to start getting chips in against the morans ASAP while they are willing to do so.

He's also putting in a solid percentage of his stack which will leave just a 1/2 PSB behind; can we really fold getting 3:1 if we continue? So we're facing our commitment decision here (not that we have to get in all our chips at this point, but we pass the point of no return by calling, imo).

ETA: Really disagree that a solid player has to be raising 99/88 here preflop. He's only got a $250 stack at a very loose table (I mean, a fricken 12x raise just went lol 4ways); doesn't really make much sense to put in a huge percentage of stacks with 99/88 preflop when he's going to hate most flops, and instead he can just overlimp morans in position and no doubt capitalize huge postflop (possibly even for stacks depending on how bad these morans are) when he hits.

GcluelessNLnoobG