UTG has been limp calling a ton of hands preflop. Seems at least semi competent postflop compared to preflop and able to fold top pairs postflop.
UTG has been playing his draws very passively. Have only seen him play 2 pair aggressively so far.
Few hands ago Hero barreled a Ace high flop with Q high and won against UTGs missed draw which he didn't seem happy about

UTG limps, 1 other limper, Hero makes it $20 with AQ on BTN
Just UTG calls

UTG has $310
Hero has $500
Flop is
Q48 ($45)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG calls $25

Turn is 5 ($95)
UTG checks, Hero bets $70, UTG all in for $270

I'll assume one of those flop cards ain't there and it is Q high with a flush draw.

I'm fine with preflop/flop.

There is no reason to bet so much on the turn.

And now I fold. A passive guy who doesn't get out-of-line just check/raised a whole non-short stack against a guy who raised/bet/bet large (he's praying you have the AA you're repping).

GcluelessNLnoobG

You shouldn't bet this IP if you are not ready to call a shove getting these odds.
Check back turn and snap call almost any river, unless Td/Jd comes and he bombs it.
AP you put yourself into a stupid position, now you are getting good odds. He may have Ad5d , QK(?). Maybe still a call if he is somewhat fishy. He is limping UTG so he is fishy.


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Turn looks too big, and I think we can fold now.

Fold. Villain likely has 2-pair+.

With these stack sizes I like a check back on the turn. I'd probably bet for value if checked to on river and call a reasonable bet as well on most rivers. AP I think you have to fold as he's probably not counting on you folding here a significant % of the time.

Whether to bet versus check the turn is really opponent dependent with this smallish SPR, imo. Against passive calling stations who are never getting out-of-line / taking bluffing opportunities on missed draws when we show weakness / donking river without a very good hand / etc., then I'm fine with betting the turn as the last money we put in. Against more aggro / bluffy / etc. players then I'm fine with checking the turn back.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Preflop and flop are fine imo.

Turn i'd check back.
If he's on a flush draw and misses he might try and bluff the river and you get an easy call - get 2 streets of value.

If you bet turn and he only calls. flush misses I assume action will go c/c - so 2 streets of value either way.

Betting this big on turn gives him the chance of shoving while giving you a decent price to call, so I'd bet smaller. If he plays his draws passively he's calling either way.

AP it's a guessing game on the river, given the description I think you should fold, not sure if I could fold there myself.

So what’s V flatting H c-bet with? H repping overpair or Aq/KQ here or even QQ. Now OP has not clarified his own image. But I think we can infer that V is flatting with flush draw - 7d6d or Ad8d most likely or else maybe Q8s.

Does anything else make sense? Is this V capable of just “putting H on AK” and trying to jam H off his Hand? I guess I need a better read on V and H. H said he bluffed earlier and perhaps V is putting him to the test here with just a draw. Only 7d6d has got there after all.

AP I’m calling but I would love a better read.

PF I'd make it bigger if he's limp/calling a very wide range.

As played I'm leaning call. He can definitely have sets but I expect him to c/r those on the flop a lot of the time, and there aren't a ton of 2 pair hands we should give him credit for even with his wider-than-usual pre-flop limp-calling range. I do think we're probably behind here more often than not but we're getting 2:1 on a call so I think I'm calling.

Turn seems std to me, and anything smaller is prob too small esp if he’s seen us barrel super light

Ap yuck fold

V easily has 88/44 in his range, along with some potential unlikely strong combos we don't see coming. I'd fold this.

my first reaction based on OP description and the Q high bluff hand is to call.

we're never in front 100% in this spot and sometimes even dead to a set or drawing thin to 2pr, but V will see great value in shoving pair+fd, pair+sd combos based on the previous hand.

i'm going with my gut instinct more often than not here though. body language and bet speed are very important. you've seen him play 2pr+ previously, so that's a big help now.

I agree this is a great line for V if we can fold one pair on the turn, I like doing this stuff against people who have a chance of making this fold. The problem in this case is V is probably passive limp/calling here and most live low stakes players are going to just peel and take the "low variance route"

This is where reading your opponent comes into play. His shove has polarized the hand and op must ask himself whether he feels V wants a fold or a call. The Q high bluff hand earlier will have some influence on how V perceives H and combined with other info op has acquired during session, should enable op to lean toward the correct read. V only wants a fold if he believes H can fold. V only wants a fold if he believes H is ahead at the moment but V believes he has a better draw than H. If V believes H can't fold, then V believes he has the nuts or near nuts now and H will call from behind or a draw and is trying to not give odds to call, but still expects it.

I would c-bet at least $30 here on the flop. Think turn is also a mandatory barrel, and I like your sizing. When you face the turn jam, think its a pretty straightforward fold

Alot of live ranges here will have things like 76o in them, so when we get raised, we are facing two pair and straights alot. Not to mention Qxs combos, and slowplayed sets and two pair on the flop. People just dont bluff often enough in this spot, and even vs a very aggressive player this is mostly going to be a fold. I think you must bet this turn because of worst Qx combos and pair plus draws he has. Once we get raised its pretty safe to assume we lose. (balugathereom)

if we fade a turn raise and the river is relatively brickish, I think we go for value there as well, as most stronger hands will not wait until the river for a raise.