No read on villain, he's in his 60s bought in for 200. Seems to have somewhat of an idea but he's only been here for 5 hands

I raise KQo 12$ MP1 8 handed he calls IP HU to flop

Flop ($25)
Q32 with 2 diamonds, I do not have a diamond and the Q is a diamond. I lead 15$ and villain raises to $30 I call

Turn ($85)
4
I check, villain checks (uhhh)

River ($85)
J (There is no back door flush)

I half value/block bet $35 he says raise pretty quickly and makes it $110

Eff my life

Thoughts?


An after the fact to consider is I asked him if I fold would he show and he said yes pretty casually. Did not seem like he was trying to egg me into a fold.

22,33 makes sense otf, but makes no sense at all ott.

JQ, AQ makes the most sense now otr. Busted diamonds is also possible, but he's old, so it's V dependent on that situation. Another KQ is definitely a possibility also, but more unlikely due to card removal.

Losing to two, beating one, chopping with another, yet we bet otr and get raised anyway. The min-raise otf definitely seems like a JQ or KQ thinking he has the best hand because of obvious c-bet, and wouldn't mind having hero call because he believes he has somewhat the best hand most of the time.

22,33 could very well show up here also, and villain just checked ott because hero checked and it is relatively safe board besides diamonds and villain wants to keep hero in otr to induce hero to bluff or bet for value.

I believe we have to fold here regardless, especially against an old villain.

yea I'd fold. When a 60 year old dude shows aggression on multiple streets, he has something good. We don't really beat any value hands, so we have to put him on complete air to call this.

I don't really like the blocking bet on the river. If villain had just flatted the flop, I'd obviously be in favor of betting river. But when he raises us on the flop, he reps nut hands and draws (mostly flush draws). So we really shouldn't bet the river against this range.

We can just check, and expect him to bet a large percentage of the time-- he will bet all of his value range, and he will bluff his busted draws frequently, too.

But when we blocking bet, we allow him to blow us off our hand. I'd rather check and make a decision based on sizing / tells.

Looks like QJ or maybe JJ every time here. Just fold imo. I would check call river I think as he will value bet most queens here when we check twice. Plus he might bet missed diamonds.

No reads on villain or hero. Its really hard to say for sure. Its a pot size bet. Would think top pair is good here enough to call. Its 1/2. Lot of bad players will come off a blackjack table a bet a pocket pair here. "Thought you had AK"

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Line makes no sense, so I'd probably call now.

I would check call the river though. When you bet, what are you hoping calls? QT? Hopefully he has a busted draw or something weird so let him bluff again.

Line makes perfect sense with QJ and JJ. Old guys will often minraise TPWK or second pair to "see where they're at" and check down after that unimproved.

If he's spazing out that wide on the flop can't he also be spazing out on the river?

He's an old guy tho. Minraising flop with TPWK and middle pair isn't in nearly the same category of spazzing as raising river with airballs is anyway.

My thoughts exactly.



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To the poster who said he didn't really like a blocker, I called it a half value bet/blocker, because I'm betting an amount that he can not fold TPNK because the flush draw missed. If he has some goofy Q8s he's going to pay me off, but I do not want to give him the option to check it back and try to go to showdown.

To the poster who asked about reads for me, typical reggish poker player. Early 30s white male, hoodie, backpack, $881 deep to start the hand. I'm not really sure if any of it is pertinent because neither of us have played a hand together yet and he's only been there a few hands.

Any thoughts about his reply to "will you show if I fold?"

AA-QQ unlikely, coz reraise and blockers. Certainly not impossible though.

JJ, 44-22, QJ certainly possible the way the played it. A5s/56s unlikely but possible. So there are more than a few combos out there which beat you that wouldn't have reraised pf.

Here's what I don't like: the donk raise is still occasionally synonymous with "I have the nuts but I don't want to scare you out of the pot." Check on turn could also be for the same. Another check-raise on the river, too? I don't even think it was JJ after this, I'm guessing he had you crushed earlier.

Clear river fold imo. Weirdly played, but if he bluffed you out good for him I suppose.

And in hindsight, the least important thing is his response to that. Maybe he'd be happy to have you out of the hand. Maybe he's happy and comfortable because he has the nuts.

Sounds like strength and "being nice and showing you when you fold" to me.

prefer to c/c river in this spot.

vbet blocker seems thin, QT and Q9 are the only hands you miss value from. dont think he hero calls you with 77 here.

id like it more if you had bet 10 on the river and he raised to 50. then atleast i can talk myself into calling because i could have easily induced this.

as played, into the muck it goes. and i would be very unhappy at myself for how the hand played out.

hand is fine up until river

fold as played

as with others, i prefer c/c river here against an unknown old dude

I would have folded this hand myself

On the flop, I think the raise is common w/ hands like 22,33, maybe AQ or other Qx(less likely) or he has some sort of naked flush draw and is trying to see 2 more streets for cheap since you are most likely calling and checking the turn w/ most of your range.
Also, w/ such a dry board, your call on the flop should look mostly like Qx, less likely(jj,1010, 99), and maybe some flush draws.

The turn check is super weird. It is a really odd line for him to take because he’s losing value w/ his otf range of 22,33, aq etc. but I think in this moment of the hand, it is more likely that he just has a naked flush draw and was following his plan from the flop to see the river cheaply.

The river is essentially a blank( only Qj improves) and I really like your value/blocker bet in this spot because you get called with worse a decent amount of the time(Q10,Q9) but more importantly you don’t have to worry about calling a difficult and most likely huge river bet. Also, I think your bet looks fairly strong and he should definitely put you on at least a strong queen here, and I guess maybe a busted flush draw.

Having said that, unless you think he is capable of recognizing that your river bet was a blocker bet and that your range consists of mostly one pair hands in this spot, I think it is a fold here. I think this is a somewhat advanced line for the stakes and the way the hand played out, it is a difficult play to make on his end. I think if he puts you on a busted flush draw, he is always flatting w/ any sort of showdown and if he has a busted flush draw himself w/ no showdown value, I don’t think he is capable of bluffing with it because if his hand is in fact a busted flush draw, it is clear that he just wanted to draw to it based on his OTF min raise.

So, if you can rule out that he is capable of bluffing here, I think the most common hands he raises for value with are 44 and QJ. I don’t think he values any worse Queen and 22,33 doesn’t really make sense because if he check raised the flop for value, he essentially is revealing the strength of his hand and therefore a turn check would make no sense to the logic and line he took on the flop.

In the end, I think you follow your plan when placed that blocker bet on the end and fold here.

Thanks for all the responses.

I'd like to discuss the hand with my thoughts. Some people began advocating a check call on the river. I do not like this at all, and here is why. For starters we have absolutely no idea about the villains tendencies. Checking with the intention of basically calling blindly is pissing in the wind.

Lets break the hand down and dissect a range. I do not think sets are in this villains range. The board is somewhat wet, I doubt he would be minraising on the flop. But even if he does, he would continue to bet on the turn. It is an innocuous card. 'Well maybe he was afraid of A5 or 56 so he didn't bet the turn' you say? Well then if this is the case he is surely not going to raise the river and open his stack up if he is afraid of those hands on the turn. So I think we need to rule out sets. The same goes for one pair Q hands

I feel the reason we need to bet the river is for value against his one pair hands, which by the river it looks like he has. Check calling here with the intention of snapping off a missed draw is wishful thinking IMO, because we do not know any of villains tendencies. Just because a player might bluff a missed draw here does not mean we can assign it to his range. He might just check back a missed draw and hope A high holds up. We might also get some small value from a hand like Jx He is getting a good price to call the river and potentially snap off a missed draw from me. I'm not really all that worried if I get raised on the river. 99% of river raises are hands that can beat one pair.

So as played, what does his river raise mean for his range? I think his range is missed draws or QJ only. The only problem I have here is I do not know his range for playing suited cards. Many players in your average 1-2 game are the type of players who look at K7s and this it is the nuts and will call raises. If we break down a standard range for calling raises and strong hands, lets say AJ A10 KJ K10 J10 diamonds are in his range and sometimes AK (but sometimes he might 3 bet. So with 6 combos of those hands and 6 combos of QJ It may make this a call.

My concluding thoughts are that I think it is bad to check call the river. First off we let him set the price which we will have to pay. If his range includes hands that beat ours on the flop, then when we bet the river he is not going to be raising the river if he checks the turn. Remember there is no history, he is not going to get fancy with a set and check back turn to raise the river. If he checks the turn he almost never has a set, and if he does have the set then he is not raising the river. I'm still a bit torn on calling the river and I did agonize at the table because I felt I only lost to QJ. The only problem was that I did not know how wide his bluffing range would be, if he even had one.

results

Exact opposite IMO. When live players say they will show if you fold it is a pretty reliable weak tell in my experience.

And as played you can bet he river. C/c river after turn checks through is weak sauce

I'm with you that check/calling river is definitely bad against an unknown. This is a clear cut thin value bet on the river. Villian's line is extremely suspect and I think its wrong to discount sets in his range. I have seen this line countless times with a set.

These guys don't know how to bet size so a min check raise is often them "sticking it to you" in their heads. Then as soon as 3 cards connect on the turn or a third suit drops they slow down immediately because they just assume they are getting drawn out against. But with that said this is why we bet fold/river and make it bigger because we are happily folding to any raise on the river and we still wan't value here with our hand.

I would c/c river, but as played you got to lay it down, especially vs. the older guys. Looks like QJ or JJ every time. Villain will not even value raise AQ which has you beat anyways.

I would also bet the river but I would bet more. After the flush draw missed, I can't see an unknown folding top pair really ever, especially after you check the turn. I'd bet more like $55-$60. I believe this amount still gets called by worse and it drastically decreases the chance that he's bluffing if he decides to raise the river. So I'd be bet/folding ~ $60 otr.

As played, I think we bet so small that we have to consider that he is raising a busted draw here because we look fairly weak and capped at one pair. Read less this is tough. I'm calling and expecting to see JJ, some KK and busted draws here.

Also seeing what he shows down in this spot is going to be worth more than the ~$70 it costs weather we win or lose, as it's going to give us a ton of information as to what kind of player this guy is, what he's capable of and why he took the odd line that he did.(assuming we're playing with the guy for the rest of the day/in the future)