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TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting?

12-20-2015 , 11:18 AM
2/5 10 player

sb: $200 -> Tight passive
bb (Hero = 6 J): $400 -> TAG image
utg: $500 -> Loose passive


preflop:
utg/mp/hj/co/sb/bb limps

flop ($30): 2 3 J
sb checks, hero bets $20, utg calls, mp/hj/co folds, sb calls

utg will call if he has any piece of the flop. ie: bottom pair or gutshot.
I put sb with tp, which means I'm probably out kicked.

turn ($90): 8
sb checks, hero?

I sooooo want to get value out of utg but if that doesn't come, I'm going to lose to sb.
if I bet $60, sb will have $115 left if he calls. and the pot will be at least $210 on the river.
I don't see sb folding to a river push if I miss my flush draw.


What would you do here + river?
What would you have done on the flop?

Last edited by AA Suited; 12-20-2015 at 11:29 AM.
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-20-2015 , 12:16 PM
I think I would keep betting but quite small, say $35-$45. Something UTG can call with his whole range.

That way you get some more value from UTG, prevent him confusing things by suddenly betting vs your check and you continue to disguise your draw from SB.

You probably have 9 flush outs and 3 two-pair outs vs SB and you don't know for sure he actually has you beat nor that he can't fold a better hand to continued aggression. So you may still have some fold equity vs SB and a valid semibluff.

I don't mind attempting to get a free card by checking and facing only one more passive opponent it stands a good chance of success. However, I think stabbing at the flop, checking the turn and then coming alive on a flushing river makes it very obvious you have the flush and may struggle to get calls from either villain.

On the river if I had bet turn I would bet whatever I think SB can call if I make the flush. I probably bet a bit smaller if I only make two pair. If no flush or 6 comes and SB checks to me I check behind and hope I beat them both but I'm not trying to get another street of value out of UTG when we read SB as being stronger than us a lot of the time.

If SB bets in front of us on a flush card I'm going to evaluate it carefully before acting. Passive player x/calling two streets and then leading river when flush comes in screams flush and we would have the fourth nuts. Given SB is tight passive a lot of his FDs are going to be 1st to 3rd nuts so I'm not loving that spot!

Last edited by Ragequit99; 12-20-2015 at 12:27 PM.
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-20-2015 , 12:33 PM
c/r flop; you may get a better J off your 6 o'clock, and you may GIIG against spades
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-20-2015 , 01:15 PM
Problem with x/r flop is SB already checked and UTG is loose/passive so check probably just gets called. Also hero doesn't know SB probably has JX until hero bets flop and gets called so is unaware he may be behind if flop isn't bet.
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-20-2015 , 01:25 PM
6 players to the flop.
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-20-2015 , 04:05 PM
^lol yeah I came back to this and got muddled with another hand. I guess there is some possibility there may be a bet here
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote
12-21-2015 , 09:47 AM
I like a weak bet of $30-40 and fold to any decent sized raise
TP weak kicker + flush draw: Keep betting? Quote

      
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