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Old 05-27-2010, 03:41 AM   #1
Mattinova
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TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

Game: 3 5 live at Casino Arizona

(BB) Hero As2s Stack: 1200+
(BTN) V1 1500+
(MP) V2 400+

V2 limps, V1 raises to 20, Hero & V2 call

POT: $62

FLOP: 9s 7s 4h

V1: tight passive calling station

V2: Intresting player. Thinks at a high level but makes big bet bluffs against calling station type opponents. I've personally caught him in other sessions bluffing OESDs on the river when a flush card hits. Can also make the big hero call on the river. Likes to squeeze PF. Can play tricky post flop. I haven't completely figured him out yet, alot of times his plays confuse me. He likes to show his wierd bluff lines.

V1 hasn't raised very many hands so I give him credit for something good. Even so, I know that this player doesn't like to raise someone without the nuts. Given this info I expect not to get raised
even with an over pair type hand if I lead.

Hero bets $40

V2 calls
V1 calls

POT: $182

At this point I am putting V2 on one of the many draws and V1 on 1010-AA

TURN: Ac

Hero leads for $90

At this point I feel I am very far ahead of everyone and I bet smaller than normal to keep V2 and V1 in.

V2 raises to $350

V1 folds

POT: $622

I feel like this is a tough decision for several reasons.

1. I don't know if V2 has played with V1 long enough to know that he wont raise on overpair on a drawy flop. Going with this line he could have called with a set intending to re raise V1s raise on the flop. I've done this before and it's a really profitable play since the guy with the overpair auto assumes you have a big draw,

2. V2 could have A9. Definitely in his range PF unsuited or not. This hand seems consistant with his line. Assuming he intended to fold if V1 raised.

3. If I call and hit trips or two pair could be in a very bad situation OOP. I know he can bluff the river with a blusted draw.

4. If I call and hit my flush I am forced to lead which looks like a flush draw from every angle. If I know I won't get paid why call, assuming I have the worst hand now. He might even fold a smaller flush if I lead large. I could check if I hit to try and induce but that seems wrong also.

5. V2 is 100% capable of repping my hand with a different type of draw. I have seen him do this before to weak players. V2 might interpret my 1/2 the pot bet on the turn as weakness i.e he puts me on a draw. This is what my gut is telling me but again, this player confuses me. If this is true and I brick the river I am probably going to have to make a hero call.

6. Raising doesn't seem right with stacks this deep. I am more inclined to fold then raise hoping for a better spot.

In position, I am calling this bet 100% of the time and re-evaluating the river.

V2 isn't giving anything up emotionally. I told him I was a Lakers fan and didn't get anything.

HERO tanks 3mins+

Anyways, what would you guys do?

P.S. I hate tanking on the turn it gives stuff away.
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Old 05-27-2010, 04:32 AM   #2
akagod
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

I can't really say 'fold preflop' since I'm guilty myself of playing speculative hands from the blinds, but this is a textbook example of the tough spots that can arise from playing hands like As2s out of position.

Also I think you might have messed up the stacksizes, because based on what you said V2 essentially shoved the turn.
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Old 05-27-2010, 04:40 AM   #3
Mattinova
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

Opps, your right, switch V1s and V2s stacks.

Also, hitting two pair or trips on the river is still a bluff catcher in my eyes.

Last edited by Mattinova; 05-27-2010 at 04:42 AM. Reason: <- nub
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Old 05-27-2010, 11:52 AM   #4
dhg223
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

anyone ever c/c that turn? I think I do exactly because of the raise you are now facing

Why do you feel you are "very far ahead" on the ace turn? You've got 25 percent against any decent Ace hand on the turn
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Old 05-27-2010, 05:39 PM   #5
popeyesretreat
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

It is pretty obvious he has a better Ace at the least, I might have C/C here to control the pot size a bit, I would have been willing to call a bet that was smaller but now it is a raise, I really think we are drawing to just the flush now, maybe the 2 might help but he may have A9,A7, you really are priced out of this hand now, so I think I would fold unless I had a feeling he had it in him to bluff like this, but I really don't see a bluff.
Fold
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:11 PM   #6
ledoutwbottomset
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

do you ever think villian has top set here? Is he going to float the flop with a good ace he probably raises on the flop more than he calls with AK or AQ ur 200 bb's deep a little better than 2to1 on ur money and your certainly drawing to only a flush as played i fold i most defintly agree with gambit pot control turn by check calling its a way ahead way behind spot i don't think you lead out in this spot very much
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:21 PM   #7
nddst
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

Fold pre, if not...
Check turn, -- So you have implied odds for the flush. You bet the flop which, to me, disguises your FD.
as played fold turn.
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Old 05-27-2010, 11:56 PM   #8
Mattinova
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhg223 View Post
anyone ever c/c that turn? I think I do exactly because of the raise you are now facing

Why do you feel you are "very far ahead" on the ace turn? You've got 25 percent against any decent Ace hand on the turn
If I c/c the turn I feel I lose value from one of many draws that each of the players could have. I do not get raised in this spot on the turn very often. What do you think you will get raised by? Under most circumstances players in V2s spot are raising a set/2pair on the flop. A lot of players might think they are beat and fold A9 on the flop due to the PF raisers tightness. I also can rep a set in this spot which makes it semi less unlikely that I will get RR by top two.

I would be very very surprised if V2 floated the flop with a big ace. He didn't raise PF, there is a tight player behind him, and I have a lot of strong hands in my range.

C/C really only seems right if I think I am going to get raised.

As I think about it more I see that it is both unlikely V2 has a strong hand and it is unlikely V2 is bluffing. Since I know that V2 is firing the river with his strong hands and his bluffs it's a question of what % of the time he bluffs. I am not sure how to calculate what the threshold is but I don't think it is worth committing my whole stack if I don't hit a flush.
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Old 05-28-2010, 02:52 AM   #9
smallfish69
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

It's possible v2 flatted your flop bet with 2 pair or a set hoping the button would raise. But if v2 is a decent player he's probably not open limping in mp with too many pp's so that leaves hands like 79,A9,A7 and possibly 44. Although I think it's possible he has a draw and figures the A didn't help your hand. Against this type of opponent I think c/c the turn is a better line to take to avoid these types of problems or just fold pre. As played I would probably fold because your oop and will lose the most when your behind and win very little when u have the best hand or improve on the river.
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Old 05-28-2010, 04:27 AM   #10
ledoutwbottomset
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

the more i think about it, as deep and as bluffy as V2 is if you think there is a chance you get paid of if you hit or you might be able to run a huge bluff in pos on the river maybe you could call this raise
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Old 05-29-2010, 03:27 AM   #11
Jen-Sung Tan
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Re: TP + Nut FD turn decision, Deep Stacks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattinova View Post
(BB) Hero As2s Stack: 1200+ (BTN) V1 400+ (MP) V2 1500+
V2 limps, V1 raises to 20, Hero & V2 call
POT: $62
Unless V2 had a meta game play in mind, it is safe to discount AA-1010 or AK-AJ from his range; considering the unlikelihood of the blinds or a tight passive player opening the pot. It is possible that he limped 99-66, but it is more likely to have small pocket pairs, connectors, or a variety of marginal high card possibilities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattinova View Post
FLOP: 9s 7s 4h
Hero bets $40
What does leading into a tricky aggressive opponent and a weak tight station accomplish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattinova View Post
V2 calls, V1 calls
pot: $182
Against an aggressive opponent, the lead is more likely to be perceived as a probe than a monster. V2 is unlikely to reveal information, as he is capable of floating, bluffing scare cards, and slow-playing. The weak tight station opened the pot with a range dominating A2s, and will not fold or raise with the bulk of that range. My conclusion is that the lead is a block bet to disguise the flush draw, since neither opponents will reveal strength or fold better hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattinova View Post
TURN: Ac
Hero leads for $90
At this point I feel I am very far ahead of everyone and I bet smaller than normal to keep V2 and V1 in.
Neither opponent has acted out of line, so what observation has led you to believe that you are ahead? If anything, the small bet serves as more of a probe than value bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattinova View Post
V2 raises to $350, V1 folds
POT: $622
Consequently, the size of the turn bet has given an aggressive opponent the green light to pull a scare card bluff or disguise a monster as combination draw. What weaker hands will call a re-raise? Unless he has no conception of pot odds or you have a reputation of playing big draws hyper aggressively, he would not stack off without top pair. What hands constitute a scare card bluff? 36, 45s, 56, 68, 810, 8J, 10J. What could have been slow-played? A4, A7, A9, 47, 79, 44, 77, and 99.

Clearly, these ranges are based on speculation. However, a bet between 140-175 limits his options; as Semi-bluff raising becomes costly while denying pot odds: forcing him to continue with the upper end of his range. As played, I would elect to fold on the turn since better hands rarely fold, few dominated hands ever call, while flatting pot commits you.

Last edited by Jen-Sung Tan; 05-29-2010 at 03:53 AM.
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