Live 2/5 game at the Belagio in Las Vegas

Hero is Btn w AdKd with 800 behind
MP1 limps and covers Hero
HJ limps
Hero opens to 20
SB calls with 600 stack
MP1 calls
HJ folds

Flop Ah6d4d.

Check Check. Hero bets 35. SB folds and MP1 makes it 235.
Hero calls.

Turn Kh.

MP1 bets 550. Hero calls.

Villain is a 50 yo middle eastern gentleman who played relatively snug and hadn't gotten out of line as far as i could tell. I was pretty aggressive otb and hj.

Is this the optimal line?
Should I have Jammed flop?
Folded flop?
Folded turn?

My flat otf was to encourage worse draws to continue but he was probably committing himself with the pot xr otf so maybe jamming gets calls from worse. I don't think sets are ever folding but there may be a small percent of folds from 44 if I jam over his xr.

There are 7 set combos which beat me otf with 4 likely aces up combos which beat me otf but I beat ott.

QJdd, TJdd, 9Tdd, 89dd, and 78dd are in his limp calling range but i think he only drives the 78dd. Perhaps he could have 75dd which he would also drive but unlikely he would have 35dd. So there are 2 combos which i beat which would take this line. He may get frisky with all diamonds but only maybe a quarter of the time, so add in one more combo which i beat.

There are 6 remaining AK combos otf and 4 ott which may fall into his xr otf and jam ott range. But I think half of those he would have opened pf with, the AKss and AKcc, so eliminate those and there are only the two os combos left ott.

So otf there are 11 combos that beat me and 9 i likely am ahead of with 36% equity v the hands im behind. Ott there are only 7 combos that beat me and i now have 52% equity v the original 11 combos i was behind.

All of this makes for either my line or a 3b jam otf optimal. However, in the moment as i was playing it just felt like i was crushed and i should have folded. Where does the math end and the psychic abilities begin?

On the flop he seems to be waving his hands tell you he has a set. Getting it in on the flop against a set is a massive 285 dollar mistake.

He may not:
1. Always limp call Axs
2. Always play them this way when he hits 2-pair

So his range may be very set-heavy. I see a lot of fish massively over-bet pots when they have a nut-ish hand. They do it, because they get paid off.

The relevant question, as you pointed out, is how he'd play 87dd/75dd/53dd? Are they in his range, and does he play them this way? I can't answer the question.

Folding the flop is never a big mistake in spots like this.

A $20 raise is not much of a raise at 2/5, Bellagio or anywhere else.

So it doesn't help us read Villain's hand much.

It might make Villain think we are weaker than we are.

$235 is an over bet for the pot size on the flop.

Would he do this with a combo draw?

Would he do this with two pair?

$550 is a PSB.

What was our plan when we called the $200 more to go on the flop?

Yeah i realize my sizing pre was to small. How do we think this effects the limp calling ranges?

My plan was to either fold to the xr otf or call off the stack ott. Or jam the turn if x to. Since i called the 200 more i was calling the rest.

preflop sizing is fine and deceptive (good) since a lot of live players overbet their strong hands pre to "protect" them. might as well just turn your cards face up. he could have two pair (flip). there's around 160 in the pot when he makes his check raise with 735 behind so you need somewhere around 45% equity against his range to continue. some chance of AQ maybe. i don't think you should fold the flop (or any turn).

The more interesting part is that it becomes more difficult to range villain properly due to your weak sizing pre-because villain can read that as you are on a weak holding and attack you lighter on the flop.

If you go bigger pre this whole hand becomes easier to play and villains range gets more defined.

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Folding would be a colossal mistake OTF.

Board: Ah 6d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.310% 54.16% 00.15% 14478 39.00 { 66, 44, A6s, A4s, 64s, A6o, A4o, 64o }
Hand 1: 45.690% 45.54% 00.15% 12174 39.00 { AdKd }

Not getting it in OTT is a colossal mistake

Board: Ah 6d 4d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.465% 21.46% 00.00% 255 0.00 { 66, 44, A6s, A4s, 64s, A6o, A4o, 64o }
Hand 1: 78.535% 78.54% 00.00% 933 0.00 { AdKd }

Sorry he had a set.

You ranged the Villain very wide, you think we're behind, and you think folding is not only a mistake but a colossal mistake? Seriously!?

What's the EV of calling a shove with 45.69% equity on this flop? It's gotta be hugely positive for folding to be a mistake. And of course it's not.

Are you being serious?

Hero has 46% equity. Add in another 5-10% equity for LOL live poker spazz..

I gave him all hands that would take that line except AA, which I'm happy to eliminate due to 1) preflop line and 2) blockers.

But yeah, giving V only sets... w/e.

Board: Ah 6d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.303% 70.30% 00.00% 4872 0.00 { AA, 66, 44 }
Hand 1: 29.697% 29.70% 00.00% 2058 0.00 { AdKd }

Probably not much AA in range.

Does feel like 66 or 44 a lot.

The sizing pre is wrong because i did not increase due to limpers. Not increased based on the strength of my hand but to keep the field small. I mentally got it in on the flop but i also wanted to give smaller f draws rope on the turn.

Any chance your tiny flop sizing induced (spazz or aggression)? How long did it take you to flat flop? I think there is enough flopped 2pr/combo draws/spazz to call down.

I bet 35 into 65 otf. Not particularly tiny. Smallish but not significantly small where it would cause a spazzy reaction. I flatted after a bit of thought but not a tank. Id call it a short pondering.

Previous history with Villain would be helpful, but his limp call pre check raise flop is super strong followed by a PSB on the turn really just screams either sets of 4 or 6s or 35 dd/57dd (I gots a straight flush draw).

You have no fold equity whatsoever on the flop, so in my opinion you either get it in or fold flop. 30% equity on the flop vs set.

Your equity on the turn is 30% only because you picked up a K.

Bet 50 on the flop, call off stack. More history between u and him would be helpful.

history would have been helpful but there was none. he played rockish with a deep stack for the entire time i was there. no battles between v and h previous to this hand.