Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
1/2 Casino game
Pretty much everyone limps and hero checks BB with QdJd. No specific reads on players. Stacks are $200+ effective.
Flop Q63 rainbow, one diamond
Hero leads for $15 (close to pot)
4 callers
Turn = 10d
Hero bets $60
2 callers
River Jh
Hero bets $60
V shoves for $220 more.
Other player folds.
OK....
So here is my thought process at the time, although I think it was wrong looking back. Let me know. I think the biggest problem with this hand was betting the flop. I am not sure if leading into this many people makes sense with top pair, weakish kicker even on this dry board. I think I can get called by worse, and I think many times, I am not not getting the whole table calling.
I think OOP multiway I would check/call this flop a large percentage of the time. That said, there is a percentage of the time I'm leading. I choose my leads by how sticky my opponents are -- if they're continuing with tons of underpairs, let's bet/bet/decide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
But as it turned out the pot became super bloated leaving me in a difficult spot on the turn. I told myself if I did not improve somehow on the turn I would just check, but when the 10d hit I felt like I could justify continuing.
Yeah, unless I'm a total fish this is a x/call spot so we don't get blown off of the hand with a raise. We want to realize our equity at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
On the river, I bet small because I thought maybe AQ or KQ calls me or even Q10, but if I shove I fold out those hands.
This spot is highly villain dependent. Against someone who will turn their obviously beaten hands into bluffs, we can x/call. Against someone who will check behind pretty regularly, we can b/fold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
I was pretty surprised when V shoved. Suddenly, my hands looks pretty worthless, and yet how can I fold? If this guy has 66 or 33, I think I would have heard from him sooner. And how often can he have AK, which is the only legit hand he could have. I doubt he has QJ because he would have folded that on the turn. So while it "feels" like AK and this is never a bluff - it is SO hard for him to have AK. In fact, he would have to have exactly AdKd, because he is never calling 60 on the turn with just AK.
Thoughts?
Yeah, I mean... as sick as it sounds: what bluff does he have here? He'd have to be a maniac. We're in a must-fold situation with ~10-20% equity on this river. Our plan should have been to b/fold, so I would've bet larger for value -- somewhere around $100. That sizing should net you some decent profit to offset situations like this.
You really shouldn't get married to a top two hand when your opponent has no air in his range. I think lots of villains will play a flopped set this way on such a dry board. It's a foolish thing for villain to assume you're on a backdoor flush draw and blow you out of the pot on the turn; easier to let you hang yourself with your perceived one-pair hand.