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Tough spot with top 2

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01-14-2016 , 06:56 PM

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

1/2

V is a young Asian guy playing tight-ish and passive. Mostly playing fit or fold on flops except I saw him overcall two streets in a limped pot with third pair and bink trips on the river and then lead out for pot. Other than that he's been really quiet. Not raising much pre and pretty much just folding a lot post flop.

V - 281
Hero covers

Hero Raise 12 AJo MP, 3 calls including V on BTN
Flop(~45) J85dd
2 checks, Hero bets 25, BTN and SB call
Turn (~120) Ax
Check, Hero Bet 70, BTN all in for 244, SB folds hero??

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01-14-2016 , 07:02 PM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

100% call. Villain has at least four A8s/A5s combos vs. six set combos. You get about 2.3:1 odds to call. Villain may be shoving with a combo draw too.

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01-14-2016 , 07:15 PM

Nocturnal_Joker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 389

At 1/2, I don't think many Villains are shoving two pair on that turn...I could see a raise if u led with a small bet, but I think "most" players at 1/2 will see $70 on the turn as a strong bet and will still just call even with AJ....looks like a flopped set to me

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01-14-2016 , 07:20 PM

Below Zero

adept

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 848

PF: OK

F (48): SPR is ~6. $25 Bet is fine, although a bit low for me.

T(123): $70 Bet is fine. We've put in 38% of the effective stack. BTN shoves: $174 to call to win $437 (2.5:1 or 28%). BTN is tightish-passive, over how many hands? Only hands that beat us are JJ, 88, 55, and AA with JJ and AA being unlikely. Could be doing this with AdXd or 9d8d but does a tightish-passive do this? Could be doing this with A8 or A5.

Jesus, this is tough one. I always like to think in these spots: It's hard to flop a set

I think we need to call.

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01-14-2016 , 07:23 PM

timmay28

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,845

misleading thread title

not a tough spot whatsoever

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01-14-2016 , 07:23 PM

McSkinny

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 347

snap calling, i think many players like the one you described will raise sets on this wet of a flop, he can easily have a worse two pair or AdXd, also we have very good odds and only need around 30% equity for this to be +ev

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01-14-2016 , 07:23 PM

fatmanonguitar

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 2,834

Villain likely has a worse two pair or AXdd.

He would prob not slowplay a set on that wet board 4-way.

Call.

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01-14-2016 , 07:35 PM

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

This guy called pre and folded the flop like 8-10 times in a hour. Raised 1-2 hands pre in an hour. And made one aggressive play post flop and showed the effective nuts. He seemed inexperienced as well (I should've added that). 1/2 players see 250 as a huge bet, he's never doing this with a draw.

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01-14-2016 , 07:47 PM

fatmanonguitar

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 2,834

Quote:

Originally Posted by water69

Nice avatar

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01-14-2016 , 08:31 PM

#10

Hardball47

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,301

I have to stack off here. At 1/2 villains tend to overvalue hands. He could easily call the $25 OTF with Axdd and now think he's got cinch.

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01-14-2016 , 08:36 PM

#11

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar

Nice avatar

Same to you

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01-14-2016 , 08:46 PM

#12

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardball47

I have to stack off here. At 1/2 villains tend to overvalue hands. He could easily call the $25 OTF with Axdd and now think he's got cinch.

+1

My first thought as well. Tight-ish passive also doesn't mean he can't fire occassionally with some pair+FD as well as A8, along with hands he might way overvalue/protect in terrible spots.... Is he awful enough to "float" AK and then shove it once he hits turn? He may not go that far, but top2 isn't ever folding. If the guy hit the case A then lol and move on.

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01-14-2016 , 08:53 PM

#13

HansSprungfeld

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 172

How long have you been playing with V? Long enough that it can't be that he just keeps missing the flop completely and the "call 2 streets with bottom pair" hand wasn't more typical of his play than all the foldin'? Because a hand like that is a pretty strong piece of evidence to me that he could easily have lots of stuff that you beat here.

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01-14-2016 , 09:43 PM

#14

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

He was at the table atleast an hour maybe 2. And the call twice with bottom pair was small bets and like 3-4 other callers. He was definitely passive and that was the first aggressive action he made all night.

I'll post the results since the general consensus seems to be a call here

Spoiler:

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01-14-2016 , 10:34 PM

#15

PFunkaliscious

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 3,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar

Villain likely has a worse two pair or AXdd.

He would prob not slowplay a set on that wet board 4-way.

Call.

this.

his hand looks like A

.

call

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01-14-2016 , 10:39 PM

#16

yaleg34

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 62

I understand your trepidation in a vacuum simply looking at the shove over your seemingly large turn bet, but this is a call... There are simply too many combos of 2 pair and Axdd that would make this play, especially given villain didn't raise flop on super wet board.

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