Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
I mean, without knowing how the pre played out, most people won't have a 7 unless its quads. High card can take this one down a nonzero percent of the time. That is strange.
I think we can at least agree that the river is a polarizing bet. I would fold turn personally in pure disgust because I believe when he is digging for value, I am chasing a two outer. The few times I am getting dug at, Ill get over it. Better places to make money. If I am convinced I am good here and call turn, I am calling river down on blanks.
For sure, a polarized bet on river. But I agree with Minatorr that turn could easily be a Ax blocker thrown up for misdirection or even 99, as in the hand I witnessed live yesterday in nearly identical circumstances, trying to fold out overcards. This is Villain-dependent unfortunately and our butt hasn't even warmed our seat 30 minutes into the session so we're mostly read-less.
I cannot believe a solver would fold here at this price but I could be wrong. Plenty of the LLSNL Villains I encounter are fully capable of blasting off here on the river on a scary board against the PFR, putting them on AQ/AK or even AJ from the CO.
This is 48 combos V can target for a fold (54 counting H's 99) versus 24 overpairs (V may also figure some of the 6 JJ might level themselves into a fold). So I guess the V can blast off knowing the combinatorics work decently for him since he's read-less too! In a weird way, this play only has to work for the Villain 1/3 of the time and he has more 8x than H does and probably as many Tx too.
If I can find a fold here, it's because we have the Ks that I want the V to have in his suited bluffing range. WADR, I think the OP djevans underestimates this fact, as HomelessPizza observed. But I'm likely calling as young V is stuck 1000 and may be tilting a little having been flushed before. It's very close.