Hero has history with Villian. Villian is 60 year old white woman. She plays a lot and enjoys the game and is known to be pretty wealthy so she tends to not like folding top pair or big combo type hands, but I have seen her do it. I get the feeling she doesn't like being pushed around by men, and takes is personaly if you make her lay down the best hand. She is generally passive preflop, limping in OOP with things like KJ and suited Aces, but also usually fast plays her strong hand post flop. She once told me she went to one of those WPT boot camps, but I really wonder what she learned bc she doesn't understand implied odds or position and hates folding once she has something. ALSO: She has held over me on nearly every hand we have ever played of any significance. She constantly has outdrawn or won nearly every we have tangles in and she is aware of this has I have mentioned it several times.
In this hand V raises to 15 from MP
OMC in cutoff calls
Hero raises to 55 in BB.
They both call.
Flop Jd10d2c
Hero bets $80
V calls
OMC folds.
Turn 2s
Hero bets 200
V raises to 400
V has about 800 behind
H has about 1k behind
So V is repping J's or 10's full.
Based on my history, she could be overvaluing a J, but I guess she could just as easily have be beat. I ask if she will show if I fold and she casually says yes. She looks comfortable, and is chatty until I say I can only lose to 10's or Jacks full. Then she sort of clears her throat and looks down. I don't know if I should read into this or not.
Perhaps, especially against villians like her I need to 3 bet bigger next time. Although as played, I really am afraid to shove and take on this kind of variance in spot where I am not 100%. I don't know how often I am winning here and it just doesn't seem worth it.
Why are you ruling out QQ and AJ? She doesn't do this with some sort of pair+ combo? A raise with those hands might be more likely on the flop but I don't think I rule them out on the turn.
I think in her mind she was raising the turn partially because there was more money in the pot and was hoping I would fold. I actually don't really know what she was thinking other than that she knows her history with me and I would be afraid of being outdrawn again and that may increase her fold equity in her mind.
If I call turn, which I almost did, what is the river plan?
Obviously we fold to a shove ( I think), but how much are we calling?
I actually think she checks backs most rivers from what I know about her, but who knows for sure with people who don't really think that deep and are sort of unpredictable.
Wait why are you guys saying it is a trivial call especially with a lot of stack left behind... Am i missing something here?
If we call turn how often or are we going to be calling any rivers?
What is our range here... i think we can have a lot of premium hands TT-AA and rarely any FD combos idk why should we raise the turn because she doesn't need to protect against the draws out there.
We should have more/all the nutted hands/range advantage in this spot idk why villain would raise again we should almost never be getting raised into in this spot.
Wait why are you guys saying it is a trivial call especially with a lot of stack left behind... Am i missing something here?
If we call turn how often or are we going to be calling any rivers?
What is our range here... i think we can have a lot of premium hands TT-AA and rarely any FD combos idk why should we raise the turn because she doesn't need to protect against the draws out there.
We should have more/all the nutted hands/range advantage in this spot idk why villain would raise again we should almost never be getting raised into in this spot.
Yes, there are stacks behind, but we don't have to call off all rivers.
Villain is very likely to reveal the truth strength of her hand on the river. We call this turn and plan to check pretty much every river card to her. If she bets, we decide. I think she'll have around 600 left with 1100 in the pot. We can c/f rivers if she shoves.
The 2 is a good card for a number of reasons. It's unlikely to improve villain, and if she happened to have two pair JT (probably unlikely), we just improved to beating her with two pair K's and 2's.
And that all said, actually, yes, perhaps we should just 3-bet shove the turn for value. Stacks are set up nicely for it, and I think she'll have a hard time laying down hands like QQ, AJ. I don't think this villain ever flats pre-flop with AA. So her value range is incredibly thin here... JJ,TT = 6 combos. QQ alone is 6, and then there's a huge amount of AJ and other Jx. It's a shame to let her get away with those hands on the river, and she may well check behind many hands that give us turn value on the river.
I definitely talked myself into shoving the turn for value. I don't think it's an overplay given the possibility for quite a bit of value and the combinatorics whereby she should have some fairly strong absolute value hands to pay us off. Stacks also help, since we're only shoving 800 more and will be laying her close to 3:1 to call the turn.
Or perhaps we should call the turn and shove all rivers ourselves.
That might be better since she might fold to a turn 3-bet because the board paired and she fears monsters.
But calling the turn and giving her nearly 3:1 on the river looks bluffier. You'll just want to dodge an ace (scare card vs some of her range, improving to two pair vs other parts of her range).
So yeah, train of thought thinking her, but call turn + open shove river might be best.
Just goes to show how there are often a vast number of options available to us if you'll take the time to think about them.
Not sure what effective stacks are but I could totally see this Villan make this play with AJ. She hits a second 2 and thinks "I got JJ and 22 with A kicker I'm good!"
Depending on eff stacks I may even push here
My actions are 100% based on your description of Villan
If you've seen her play a lot this shouldn't be THAT tough a spot, at least not as tough as it seems.
With what hands does she raise pre, then x/call that flop, then x/raise that turn?
Draws? --from someone who's limping KJ pre I would kind of doubt it, but who knows? (you should)
AJ? -- you said she doesn't like to fold, but for me this usually means V will x/call to showdown. When someone like villain as described is raising I'm usually folding a one pair hand. Especially with 200bb stacks, with 100bb or less then the chances of a player like this getting aggressive with one pair hands and draws increases quite significantly.
TT/JJ -- Someone questioned whether V would really just x/call the flop with these hands, but it's definitely possible, despite the flush draw.
QQ+ -- QQ makes perfect sense for the way this hand was played given V description. AA too, except I would expect a 4! pre more often
If you end up getting in stacks then your getting a bit worse than 2:1 here, it looks like. Currently beating 6 likely combos (QQ), and crushed by 12 (TT,JJ,AA), giving you just a bit more than 33% equity. So I don't like getting it in here at all it's very marginal.
I like the call with the odds if you think she'll check lots of rivers. But on what cards if any are we calling a river shove? How often will she shove river after making this raise?
If she will check diamond rivers and sometimes others then I think it should be a call.
**But at the same time I want to think more about it, because if the river doesn't change her range of hands and she shoves (would she shove QQ) on a blank river, then you're basically getting priced in to call again, and you would have saved a ton of money by folding the turn.
