Originally Posted by oldschool_vegas
I'm noticing a lot of villains notice TAGs will take stabs at the pot if everyone checks(which is good when we're betting for value ), but in this situation with 3 villains in the pot, I'd be wary someone peeled a king on the flop and they were just letting you value bet yourself.
I like the flop bet as the king hits our range, and there's a SD and FD draw out there, but if we're going to represent a king, we would have to bet 2/3-3/4 the pot on the turn.
As played, we're definitely saying we don't have a king, and now we have to figure out if v1 was check/calling with a king or did he miss his draw?
You say he's basically calling with anything, this makes me think he'll have a lot more SD, FDs in his range then kings....
Let's say his range to call your flop bet is with many spade/spade combos, a bunch of K/x combos, and a few SD combos. I assume we'll see a CR or turn bet if he had tripps or 2pair. I'm guessing the 5 and 4 are spades.
My estimated range for him is: { KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,As9s,Ks9s, Qs9s,Js9s,Ts9s,As8s,Ks8s,Qs8s,Js8s,Ts8s,9s8s,As7s, Ks7s,Qs7s,Js7s,Ts7s,9s7s,8s7s,As6s,Ks6s,Qs6s,Js6s, 9s6s,8s6s,7s6s,As5s,Ks5s,Qs5s,As4s,Ks4s,Qs4s,As3s, Ks3s,Qs3s,6s3s,5s3s,As2s,Ks2s,Qs2s,3s2s,KJo-K9o,76o,32o}
Which is 53 combos. 15 of those combos beat us on the river. So with my range I gave villain, we have about a 70% chance of winning. The most difficult thing about this is that he would probably play any king like he would a bluff.
I would call him.