1/3 live.

Ok so this is less of a troll post than my last post where I had bottom set. Ultimately I think this should be a call here but curious what you guys think. Definitely a tougher spot.

This is hero's 2nd band at the table. The main villain is about 67 and has severely tilted at least one of the players who is mid 20's male. The villain apparently plays and raises a wide range, bets a lot and "always gets there". That is according to the rant of one seriously titled guy who the old man just beat in a pot.

Hero is mid 20's male and is the effective stack with 450.

Bunch of people limp, villain limps the LJ. Hero limps 3s3c on the button. Small blind folds. BB. He is.

Pot: 15ish

Flop: 3d 5c 6c.

EP player (who is the tilted guy) bets 15, villain calls, hero raises to 55. EP folds and villain calls.

Pot:135.

Turn: offsuit jack. Villain checks. Hero bets 90. Villain studies me for a while and raises to 190. He says "make it 100 more" Hero thinks for a while and calls. For whatever it's worth I think I looked nervous when he was studying me.

Pot: 515.

River: offsuit 2.

Villain shoves for my remaining 200. He's breathing pretty rapidly. Looks nervous but I never know if that's nervous because he's bluffing or has a monster. I say " well I can only beat a bluff" which seems to make him more nervous. My gut is telling me he doesn't have it but it's a marginal read at best. I also feel confident my statement is true, I don't think he ever shows up with two pair.

I feel like I should be calling here. The real decision point in the hand is the turn. The two definitely isn't ideal as it completes A4 but there are a lot of worse rivers.

I don't think he would just call twice on the flop and then raise small on the turn with his sets but it's possible he trapped them or trapped with 47.

I wish I knew first hand what the player type was since I'm just going on another tilted player's opinion. He's an older guy but I think the description of the tilted guy is probably in the right ballpark, he doesn't seem like an introverted old nit.

This is a nasty spot. Seems like a spot where your read on the guy is the number one consideration. From your description...he sounds like an intelligent LAG. However that would be unusual for someone his age.

He could have sets, multiple straights, overpairs, two pair, or nothing. If the guy is really a LAG I tend to call here because he'll know it's a great spot to bluff.

But you're often beat even if he's a LAG. Wish you had a read whether he plays hands like 74. If his range is really wide preflop I'm less likely to call here as he can have so many random 4s. Besides 54 44 and A4 there's 74 64 43 K4 possibly hands like Q4s J4s 94s etc. Some people will play anything suited or slightly connected.

But since the aggression started on the turn it seems more like 2p or 74 rather than a hand the river helped like A4 though he could definitely have semibluffed the turn.

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Grunch.

Decision point is the turn, not the river. When the pot is going to be 515 with 200 behind if you call, the call is effectively for your entire stack unless you're on a draw.

With his x/r, pot is 415 with 290 behind. You have to be good here about 30% of the time or more to either shove yourself or call turn, call river if you think he'll bluff more than he'll call.

I suspect V isn't particularly good, so I'm not reading a lot into his x/r size, even though it's small: 100 on a 315 pot. I very much doubt this is a bluff. c/c the flop and x/r the turn is often nutted.

Hands that are beating us:
JJ, 66, 55, 42s, 74s up to 17 combos

Hands we're beating:
53s, 65, 63s 7 - 16 combos depending on whether 65 is suited or not.

We should add some fudge factor for unexpected hands things like QQ or whatever.

Overall, I think we probably have enough equity against a guy that's shown that he likes the bet button.

I think we're likely behind and I expect a club to freeze the action, so I don't mind calling here and calling or checking the river. If a club comes and we are behind, we might save some money. I also think a turn jam would be fine.

On a side note, the river deuce doesn't worry me much. I think he has his hand on the turn.

Agree villain likes his hand on the turn, but the river card transforms a ton of turn semibluffs into straights. I think I call because the pot odds are ridiculous and for reasons previously mentioned (namely we can find enough combos in v's range to justify it), but this concept of being pot committed is seriously overused. It's not unusual to have a great hand where you seem pot committed but the river card is just the nut low and your previously great hand is now basically a bluff catcher.

I don't at all agree the turn call "is effectively for [our] entire stack" irrespective of runout. If the river is the 4 are we still committed?

V's line is insanely strong in a limped pot. Either shove turn or fold. Also raise pre.

Raise pre! Ship turn! Now you gotta call river because the odds are so good and sounds like he can bluff it.

I agree with this, except im folding to 2c and 7c, and might call if 4c came. I dont think he shows up with a bare gutshot all that often, but he sure as heck shows up wth a bare 4.

Yeah I wasn't really analyzing specific cards, just pointing out some rivers make our previously strong hand fairly weak (including the 2 7 and 4 in some order) and we shouldn't necessarily feel committed to calling if this happens. The 4 does make a straight out of 87 / 76 / 75 as well as hands like A2 / A7 / 97 / 22 / 77 though.

Result: hero calls, he said good call and mucked what he claimed was a club draw. Ultimately I felt I was getting too good a price and enough of his strong value would have raised flop when he was early to act on a wet board with people still behind him. If he played 47 and trapped me then good for him I'll take the cooler.

I do agree Case2 that the main decision is on the turn but I was still folding on certain rivers, particularly club rivers, and absolutely the 2 or 7 of clubs as Shari Hulud mentioned. I'll probably break the hand down later looking at a bunch of different scenarios regarding if shoving or calling the turn is better. I would guess calling the turn is a little better since it gives his bluffs a chance to jam and when he does have value that beats my set sometimes he will just check on action killing rivers.

Felt good to take this one down and almost makes up for folding bottom set like a donk earlier this week lol.

This.

Now go with your gut.

Edit: Just read results. Glad it worked out. I still think shoving turn is best. GII while you think you are ahead; lots of cards freeze us (or him) on river, etc. Highly doubt he's folding on turn after he raises you.

Fair enough (though in my defence, "effectively" is an important word, in this case intending to convey something like "very often", and I didn't say irrespective of runout).

In order to call turn and fold river, we'd need to believe that
a) V will semi-bluff x/r the turn with a flush draw and that
b) he won't continue the bluff with some other hand representing the flush if a third club hits (or turn some other hand into a bluff).

Put another way, if we think there are enough semi-bluffs in his turn x/r to call, there may well be enough bluffs in his river shove that we still have to call even on a bad card.

I agree it's not a trivial decision.

In any case, in this particular HH, I was putting V much more likely on an overplayed 2P rather than a draw for the x/r, based on my opinion of population tendencies. I was wrong about this individual this time (and perhaps about my opinion in general), so my reasoning pretty quickly goes to crap. In game, I'd flag this guy for more observation to figure out what was going on.

You win your first hand or is there a big BI allowed?

I'm cool with preflop.

I'm just not convinced bottom set on this type of board is nuttish enough to want to start raising against an EP guy who donks a PSB into the world. Years ago at my table, this is an auto-raise to build a pot against lol ranges and printing money. Now, unless donker is really really really bad, it's not as much an auto-raise. I think I actually just flat here, with "don't go broke in a big pot" ringing in my head, and see what develops in position. In the end, it looks like EP didn't have much, but then again we didn't get any value off him either by raising.

Anyway, my flop thinking basically still applies to the overall situation. We limped in for about 0.5% of our stack and are now building a pot for the other 99.5% of it postflop, with a hand that is far from the nuts. It's debatable, imo, especially with the action we're facing on the turn. Basically on the turn we're hoping we're up against a guy who is either (a) overplaying a draw against us (who doesn't look like we're folding anything the way we've played the hand so far) or (b) is overplaying a mediocre two pair hand by thinking its the nuts in a multiway limped pot where there are zillion hands that can beat it (this guy is that bad?). I'm too lazy too math, but I doubt we have the odds to chase the boat. Without really solid reads this is difficult, but I'd seriously consider folding to the turn raise. Again, 5 years ago the thought of folding here would be so lol and I'd be fistpumping to get it in; but my game doesn't work that way any more.

In general, I just don't see too many old guys (or even very many players overall) push semi-bluffs incredibly hard for 1.5 BIs in limped pots against someone who looks to already have a monster. And on top of that, one of the semi-bluffs got there.

ETA: After reading results, glad it worked out. But in the end we were fairly readless overall and hoping to be up against a unicorn player, so I'm not convinced this works out for the best long term against the vast majority of relative unknowns.

GIthinktheflopismoreofadecisionpointthanyoumayreal ize,imoG

I table changed.

I think that's a solid breakdown of the hand, I enjoy your breakdowns in general as it seems you have a good feel for how low stakes games are played. I actually definitely considered a turn fold for the reasons you gave. Obviously it's exploitable but most people just aren't bluffing enough in these spots. I was relying both on the population tendency to raise flop on wet boards with big hands which villain failed to do and on his reputation as told by the other tilted villain (it also turns out this villain does have quite the reputation in the room). If villain 3bet the flop and then ripped turn I would be more inclined to fold.

I think that's an interesting point about not raising the pot size bet by EP. I think vs a stronger reg that's a good point but a lot of rec players are a tad too wide here betting marginal hands to protect multiway. Just flatting crossed my mind for exactly the reason you stated but I quickly dismissed it as "too nitty" which isn't necessarily good logic. I just figured I'm usually pretty far ahead here and my hand is vulnerable. If I am beat there is a good chance I'll hear about it on the flop. I did end up playing for my whole stack with a far from nutted hand in a situation where I'm behind a significant percentage of the time so I get what you are saying.

I defintiely don't want to be results oriented which is why I posted the hand. I thought it was a genuinely tough hand to play. It was a very strong but non-nutted hand facing significant action on a solid but not perfect run out. I may have made the wrong decision on every street lol. Could've raised pre, flatted the flop, folded turn, shoved turn, or folded river.

In the end you got big money in as a huge fave on every postflop street, so definitely better than my nit route in this case. I'm kinda in a weird transitional period between where games used to be and where they are now, and at times I do feel like I'm floundering a bit, especially in situations where I'm not sure what table era I'm in. My conservative nature has me take the conservative route by default, but it might not always be the best.

GstilltryingtofigurethingsoutG

Fold turn? Seems weak because we can likely be drawing against a straight. We're getting almost exactly 4-1.

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I guess it depends on if he's playing 47o. If he's only playing the suited combos then he has more sets than straights. He might just raise a hand like 66 facing a limp or two though idk.

Well some people only play sets this way and never have 47o, so in that case I would fold....we all know who those people are. FWIW I would shove turn vs described V.

Ship turn. It's not even close iyam.

The flop is the decision point? Really? Just because EP donked and we only have the fourth nuts?

You play in a really bizarre game if villains don't have A6 / overpairs / straight draws / flush draws / etc way more than 74 / 66 / 55.

Things are a bit sketchy by the river. Not looking great on the turn either but it's far from hopeless. But the flop? This is totally standard and we should be happy villains are eager to put money in. We can only rarely have the stone nuts. Even then villains can often draw out on us. Gotta gamble man. Embrace the variance.

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