Tough spot against pro in 2/5 - Page 3 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Good fold.
1) We have a diamond in our hand, which is bad.
2) We don't block ATo, which is significantly more likely to flat a 3bet pre than KTo.

A much better hand to call with would be As Ah, or really any AA without a diamond.

Exploitatively speaking though, I doubt a competent player would take this line with a bluff against your obvious overpair very often. He expects you to get stationy with your overpairs, as most players do, so he probably underbluffs in this spot.

In addition to that, I doubt he flats flop, leads turn and jams river with a draw. If he wanted to play his draw aggressively, then he would simply x/r the flop or turn (most likely flop), at least that's what I would expect most decent players to do.

There is a small chance that he is being really tricky and creative. Maybe he took a weird line with JJ or QQ. But honestly, I think there's an 80% chance he had you beat.

Good post and solid analysis.

I think in theory from a GTO/balanced perspective villain "should" have x amount of bluffs on this board, but in reality i find that they generally just have it most of the time. Like even most 2/5 grinders or pros underbluff in most spots, this one included in my opinion.

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06-04-2018 , 09:21 AM

#52

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

His lead is very standard in online cash. It is a standard "GTO" Doug Polk style play. When the turn improves a lot of his perceived range, but hardly any of the 3bettor's, it is standard for the flop caller to take the initiative.

(Another example: UTG raises. Polk style reg calls in BB. Flop comes 763. BB c/c. Turn 4. Now BB will lead very frequently).

Holy sh*t batman we got an actual strat post itt

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06-04-2018 , 07:07 PM

#53

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

Holy sh*t batman we got an actual strat post itt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Petrucci

Yes, they underbluff in spots like this because live players call way too much in general. Although, the one hand that live players fold too often to aggression is Ace high and from that perspective lines like this could make sense.

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06-04-2018 , 07:16 PM

#54

8o8

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Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,875

i like to get sticky with A high

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06-04-2018 , 07:25 PM

#55

dth123451

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

I'm calling

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06-04-2018 , 07:29 PM

#56

Havok

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 726

Important to note is your opponent has playe every other 3 bet hand against you pretty straightforward, and seems to have check folded unimproved. I think it’s possible he could be turning a hand like Queen/Jack in to a bluff, but less likely. I think you do have to call this off with KK, and AA off occasionally without a diamond in his hand. Fold QQ, and JJ.

However, fold the river as played. This is almost always for value.

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06-04-2018 , 07:36 PM

#57

adios

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,530

Pretty sure V thought H would check the turn when the T paired FWIW.

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06-04-2018 , 08:02 PM

#58

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

No, I’m with you, I’d fold in this exact hand.

But he is correct that pio would take this line. I take it a lot as value only these days. It is rly face up obv but it’s the best way to get the money in.

Like when I first saw it I said lol wtf but then I started doing it and said “oh”

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06-04-2018 , 08:35 PM

#59

grizy

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A fold here is exploitable but honestly folding here is right vs. most 2/5 "pros"

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06-05-2018 , 12:29 AM

#60

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

I've noticed a lot of the newer grinders are taking this line of thinking..ie those that have come up the levels in the last year and a half or so. Being able to understand that perspective is definitely useful. However, I still do not think this is a typical bluff line taken by most live crushers for the simple fact that it will rarely work.

Yes, they underbluff in spots like this because live players call way too much in general. Although, the one hand that live players fold too often to aggression is Ace high and from that perspective lines like this could make sense.

I just started playing in the last year and a half so I can confirm, in fact, I mentioned in my post earlier in this thread that this is a good card for villain to lead since he should have more Tx than hero.

I’m definitely not a crusher, and while I’m underbluffing against the population in general, if I had a decent draw here or Tx, I would absolutely look to work in some leads against certain players.

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06-05-2018 , 04:02 AM

#61

rockchucker8

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,660

Well this was a fun post to stumble upon. 99.9% sure I'm villain in the hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

I call. He ~never has 9x, so his value range is limited to suited Tx hands, quads, and maybe 33, but surely with that hand he gii otf. His value range has ~12 combos, so you need to find like five bluffs in his range to make this a profitable call. That's pretty easy to do: take JsQs, JcQc, JhQh, KsJs, Ad5d. Distribution-wise, you are right on the border with this hand, but ime, solid aggro players will overbluff this spot because 95% of your range is unhappy about this turn.

This is probably the closest I've seen to a correct analysis of the hand ITT so far, although I probably have a few 9x in there too as I'd like to lead most of my continuing range on the turn. I also think bluffing diamond combos OTR vs a perceived thinking reg would get real punty, real quick so the above 5 combos are close to the bluff range I'd like to have in this spot.

I think I'd call KK vs myself, but it's by no means a easy spot and I can't blame you for folding at all.

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06-05-2018 , 04:17 AM

#62

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockchucker8

Well this was a fun post to stumble upon. 99.9% sure I'm villain in the hand.

This is probably the closest I've seen to a correct analysis of the hand ITT so far, although I probably have a few 9x in there too as I'd like to lead most of my continuing range on the turn. I also think bluffing diamond combos OTR vs a perceived thinking reg would get real punty, real quick so the above 5 combos are close to the bluff range I'd like to have in this spot.

I think I'd call KK vs myself, but it's by no means a easy spot and I can't blame you for folding at all.

are you going to put the guy out of his misery?

fwiw i think you were punting with QJdd and decided it was too pretty to ever fold

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06-05-2018 , 04:18 AM

#63

rockchucker8

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,660

I had QJcc.

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06-05-2018 , 04:50 AM

#64

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Well (according to the hand history) you did river a straight flush draw. Nice hand.

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06-05-2018 , 11:28 AM

#65

niceguy22

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 824

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockchucker8

I had QJcc.

Ha, nice hand man! Had a bad feeling about this one ever since. I like how you played it.

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06-05-2018 , 01:18 PM

#66

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

A fold here is exploitable but honestly folding here is right vs. most 2/5 "pros"

OP described this player as a beast who could do anything. A dude like that is not c/c a draw on the turn and c/f a busted draw on the river. He's got every bluff in the world by the river and the number of value hands is steadily decreasing as the board keeps pairing. If you don't call KK here you basically fold it every time to heat which can't be correct.

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06-05-2018 , 04:44 PM

#67

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

I was curious so I ran it through Pio, I don’t know their exact ranges, but Pio does seem to lead this turn fairly often as OOP. About 50-75% of the time depending on how much Tx OOP has. In addition to value, it leads hands like QJ/KQs.

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06-05-2018 , 05:27 PM

#68

adios

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockchucker8

If you are only bluffing with 5 combos OTR then leading $150 on the turn was -EV almost certainly. If you completed the high end you were ****ed but you didn't know he had KK.

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06-05-2018 , 06:22 PM

#69

8o8

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,875

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockchucker8

I had QJcc.

NH but i woulda called so

now the real question is, do you really crush cash AND tourneys?

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06-05-2018 , 06:24 PM

#70

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockchucker8

I had QJcc.

Call

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06-05-2018 , 06:33 PM

#71

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

Call

I don't think I'm that spewy and I'd play QcJc exactly the same way. It's a pretty standard hand, no?

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06-05-2018 , 06:50 PM

#72

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Forgot to mention your 3b was way too small.

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06-05-2018 , 07:03 PM

#73

daniel9861

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

I just thought of something pretty interesting but is irrelevant for LLSNL. If we know we're up against a Pseudo-GTO bluffing range that wouldn't choose missed flush draws to bluff with because it blocks hero's folding range, then wouldn't KK w/

be a better bluffcatcher than KK w/o

because it blocks fewer Pseudo-GTO bluffs?

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06-05-2018 , 09:49 PM

#74

Badreg2017

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

be a better bluffcatcher than KK w/o

because it blocks fewer Pseudo-GTO bluffs?

I don’t think so.

If our opponent flats KTs against our 3 bet then having the Kd in our hand is bad because we block less KTs since the Td is on the board already blocking that combo of KTs. If we have the KsKh in our hand, then it’s impossible for our opponent to have KTs thus blocking a significant percent of his value range.

If our opponent folds KTs then the suits of our kings are basically inconsequential. Our opponent isn’t bluffing his Kx anyway so it’s irrelevant.

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06-05-2018 , 09:59 PM

#75

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel9861

be a better bluffcatcher than KK w/o

because it blocks fewer Pseudo-GTO bluffs?

Triple reverse blocker levels ftw

Against a complete player you can make this call down that’s about all there is to it. Just imagine how much more fun this hand is with 400bb+.

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