V is an unknown early 20's wg; 2k stack

H just sat down; no history

5/5NL; 600 eff

V mp 25, H mp1 85 AK, V calls HU
AJT (175)
X, 120, call
K (410)
X, x
5x (410)
V 400

Think it's really a coinflip OTR vs capable opponents with our bluffcatcher, but am I wrong in defaulting to fold these spots in LLSNL?

How do you approach these broadway boards flop/turn with value hands vs unknowns?

I fold, purely from the fact that the LLSNL population vastly underbluffs in all types of spots: and especially on rivers in big pots.

You can certainly find other arguments supporting both calling and folding- but to me, this is the most important one, and the one i put the most weight on.

You could go either way here but lean slightly towards a fold.

I don't like your c-bet here, nor the sizing. Seems like a good candidate to check back. You don't need to be that worried about the flush draw.

Flop seems standard...actually think I could have sized larger OTF. Lots of hands will continue that we can get value from.

What are you going to do if you get check-raised? Not saying flop bet is bad but just curious on what your plan was.

Q seems super likely based on card removal and the expected flop calling range. Not many combos left of suited hands that make two pair. Only possible bluff is like 98s or some very fancy AJ type hand turned into a bluff. Combo-wise Qx is going to be more prevalent.

Grunch

It's difficult to know what to do on river after you check the turn because your check with two FDs out there caps your range. Villain knows you almost never have a Q (or two). At best you have a set though you might bet them some of the time.

Therefore an aware and aggro villain can bluff the river more than you think. He could also bet river like this with your hand hoping to shift you off a chop - it's nearly a costless bet to him since he blocks your best sets and you so clearly don't have a Queen. But because you're only a little over 100bb deep starting the hand I think V shoves at least some of his AK preflop. This would leave his flat-3bet range heavy with AQ JJ TT and a few smaller pairs and BWs/SC.

Villain is at liberty to bet his sets for value knowing you don't have a Queen. So I think it's quite possible for you to be up against a balanced range here even if he is bluffing more than you think because he can be value betting more than just Qx.

You will have a few stronger hands you could take this line with like maybe JJ/TT but I guess you also have some weaker hands with AXs. Therefore you probably can't fold many of your AK if you're convinced V is capable of running balanced lines here.

You aren't blocking either FD so that's good if you think you ought to call.

However against a total unknown I think it's best to discount bluffs somewhat because it's a big risk for V before he knows how you play. This combined with fact his flat-3bet range is biased towards stronger hands than yours right now tips me towards folding here.

I agree with this - absent reads we have no choice but to use population reads and Petrucci's population read holds true for my player pool.

This is a good point. This is probably one of the best hands to call with. Sets that don't have any clubs or hearts are the only things better.

I think we should it might be better with this hand to value bet the turn and folding to a raise right? Sets are better as check/backs because they hate getting raised more than AK does.

You have potentially 38 better combos to be betting on the flop:

KQ - 16 combos
AA - 3 combos
JJ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
AJ - 9 combos
ATs - 2 combos
JTs - 2 combos

Maybe you don't 3bet the bottom of that range, but regardless you've got tons of better combos to value bet with. This is not a three streets of value hand/board and you are IP meaning you can easily extract two streets of value on the turn and river or call villain down if need be.

Not too tough of a decision b/c stacks sizes...probably jamming since we block the nuts but there are so many draws we don't block.


However against a total unknown I think it's best to discount bluffs somewhat because it's a big risk for V before he knows how you play. This combined with fact his flat-3bet range is biased towards stronger hands than yours right now tips me towards folding here.

This was ultimately what lead me to a fold. Very unlikely V is running this bluff and hoping a standard LLSNL H can lay down 2p/sets.

This is literally punting off a stack.

Pre is too small and flop is awful.

As played I would fold.

Pre is ok, we're only 600 eff I would have just made it 3x.

I would plan on betting twice and checking back the river on certain run outs (like the one you got).

I guess, also, if he had limped and called pre, there would be a lot more hands to target, like QT, bad aces and random hearts. So in that scenario, this would be a better hand to bet. But here, you aren't all that thrilled when called.

Most of the hands you can get value from include a Q. Time to fold now.

Interesting spot vs an unknown. Maybe betting turn is better? This is a tough spot vs a true unknown or stronger player in general, against general population it's a fold unless they call flop light.

Yeah that's what I thought - sets can draw to the best hand so let's ensure they can get there - AK is nearly as strong but way less equity vs the straight so we don't mind bet/folding turn with AK but we can't bet/fold a set (or hate doing so).

Also checking back sets on the turn protects us from villain being able to routinely bet river with a very wide range. Eg he cannot costlessly bet AK to get you off a chop if you have hands stronger than AK on this river.