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Tough spot 1/2 Tough spot 1/2

02-06-2016 , 07:27 AM
Hero is young 20s white guy, villain is MAWG. Both players are regs in this specific casino room at this stake. Hero is probably viewed as TAG, villain is slight LAG that crushes.

OTTH:
Villain (covers hero) opens to $12 UTG, H ($550) reraises to $35 with AhAs. Folded around to V who flats.

Flop (70):
QhTc5c

V leads for 50. In these spots in the past, H has seen V do this with 2 pairs, sets, and combo draws. In this specific session, V had gotten stacks in OTF with numerous combo draws and gotten there every time so he could feel good in that regard. H decides to call and evaluate turn since stacks are so deep.

Turn (170):
QhTc5c6d

V checks. After V checks, hero thinks he may have a Q and lead flop to see where he was at, or just a naked FD that he didn't feel like barreling. H bets 100. V thinks for a moment, counts out 100 chips in red, then adds two black chips to the top and pushes it to the middle. Hero???
Tough spot 1/2 Quote
02-06-2016 , 08:26 AM
What's his range for opening UTG?
AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, JJ, TT, AJs? If that's a reasonable range for UTg open and call a raise, how does that change after he leads flop, then check raises turn?
He might play AA, KK, QQ, AQ, AJcc in this way.
Is KQ (16 combos) in his range here and would he check raise TP2K?
Your ahead of KK, AQ, and combos draws like AJcc, KJcc, J9cc (though he might not play a combo draw like that in this manner).
Preflop sizing seems pretty good. I think raising flop might have been the better play than just calling. With so many draws on board, there are a ton of bad turn cards. You got a safe turn, but you have a one pair hand and now, you're playing for stacks.

Some of this is math -- what's his range, how many combos of each hand are there, how many of those do you beat, etc -- and some is feel. Would he only do this with top set or a 15 out draw or could he have Kk here? Could he have AQ here? Is his range wide enough to open QTs here and call your raise HU and OOP?

Against a standard player at a standard table, I'm probably calling because KK and AQ make up a big part of their range. Against a good, thinking player, someone unlikely to ship it with one pair on the turn, esp against a tight player who three bet preflop, it's gets tougher. Is there dynamic between the two of you? Has he noticed you fold too much? And does he think he can push you around? If yes, lean towards call. Do you always pay him off when he has it? Lean towards fold.

In general, if he's very competent, he beats one pair in this spot or has a 15 out draw and guts. If he's kind of mediocre, he could be overplaying a hand you crush.

he opened preflop, led flop, check raised turn. He has a big hand. KK and QQ feel very likely. One crushes you, one pays you off. And he might play them the same way.
Tough spot 1/2 Quote
02-06-2016 , 09:12 AM
Not a tough spot. You tell us that he only donk bets the flop with combo draws, 2 pairs and sets. Against that range, you're crushed 83/17. I am assuming you know that a combo draw is a flush draw and a straight draw at the same time. Even if you add any type of flush or draw that would a MAWG would raise in the UTG and call a 3bet, you're just barely ahead.

It is an easy fold given the information you've given us. Of course if your reads are bad, then anything can happen.
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02-06-2016 , 09:26 AM
I'm all in here especially vs a lag villain who plays draws very fast
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02-06-2016 , 10:21 AM
Some people lead into the preflop raiser when they know they are ahead and want the preflop raiser to raise the flop. Some people check raise the flop when they are ahead.

This guy did both. He led the flop and his plan didnt work. So then he check raised the turn. This is a clear fold against just about anyone.
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02-06-2016 , 10:34 AM
is it a tough spot or are you just married to your AA?
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02-06-2016 , 11:20 AM
I assume V puts us on AK, QQ+ when we 3! pf. Going for a c/r with KK doesn´t make sense given AK has 7 outs against him and only 1 out to catch up to a worse hand. Seems likely he would just go ahead and bet OTT with a combo draw given that should be enough to get us off of AK. Does V really think we are going to fold KK+ to a turn c/r?

Some Caveman math for fun:

AA 1 combo x50%equity=.5
AKcc,AQcc,AJcc,KJcc 4 combos discounted to 3 x.75=2.25
QQ,TT,55 9combos discounted to 7 x 5%???=.35

Our equity=.5+2.25+.35+bluffs/12=3.1/12

B/E equity (I assume both of us are committed)=365/1100=low 30%ish

I quietly fold and don't tell anyone.

If you give him all of those combo draws have some doubts about KK you could call.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 02-06-2016 at 11:29 AM.
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02-06-2016 , 05:31 PM
More PF
Call flop
Ck turn (I don't want to bet with this much behind but if you do then bet enough to bet-c not bet-f)
He will be betting all rivers now call most of the time.
Tough spot 1/2 Quote
02-08-2016 , 02:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Not a tough spot. You tell us that he only donk bets the flop with combo draws, 2 pairs and sets. Against that range, you're crushed 83/17. I am assuming you know that a combo draw is a flush draw and a straight draw at the same time. Even if you add any type of flush or draw that would a MAWG would raise in the UTG and call a 3bet, you're just barely ahead.

It is an easy fold given the information you've given us. Of course if your reads are bad, then anything can happen.
He didnt say only, just that he has seen him do it with those hands. I think we can extrapolate a bit and add in weaker hands making the flop call and turn bet the right play.

I really want to talk myself into a call here because I feel like your play so far has telegraphed AA/KK and now he is trying to bluff you off it. I probably fold at the table but if this guy is good he is playing a draw quite well. The only tough part is knowing how many flush draw hands he would have called a 3! Oop with.
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