2/5 ~1000 stacks

-Villain is a middle aged Asian dude.. I would classify him as a TAG. Not quite a nit but on the tight side, doesn't try to make too many fancy plays. I have a lot of history with him and I've seen him bluff but only 2-3 times maybe.

-Hero opens to 20 in UTG+2 with AQ
-Both blinds call (Villain in BB)

Flop (60) - KJ10
-Checks to Hero who bets 45
-Both players call

Turn (195) - 7
-SB checks, BB leads for 105
-Hero makes it 350 and only BB calls

River (895) - J
-Villain leads for 350
-Hero?

I tank for a while since I'm getting a great price, but I don't want to use that to rationalize a bad call. KJ and J10 both make sense and got there. As does pocket 10s, although he might 3bet that prelop some percentage of the time. I beat missed hearts and I'm on the fence about whether he bets 98 here but most likely not. What do you think?

Cheers

I hope the tank was deciding whether to jam or just call. I think we get called often enough here by live players with so little behind that we have to jam.

No way BB is overcalling flop with KJ or JT on this board multiway. You have to remember how wide V is calling out of the BB here, he probably calling with over 50%.

V more likely has every combo of 89o, Q9o here getting a price in the bb.

Bonus We also don't block hearts in case v is a total spazz.

I would call but I disagree with homeless about JT never just calling flop. When hero opens +2 and bets this flop 3 ways, that’s a pretty strong range. JT really isn’t that nutted of a hand on this texture.

I cannot imagine a tight V can lead river with anything less than a boat here. Hero is uncapped and banging away the whole hand.

I suppose we have to call getting 4-1 but I doubt we’re good and I feel we will get shown TT/JT here plenty.

I think I'd even go a little bigger with the flop bet based on the texture, ie full pot. I'd be inclined to play my best draws the same way, ie nut flush draws (which also have gutshot outs).

On the turn, because there's already $195 in the pot your raise seems a bit small, giving villain a pretty good price on a call. With the given stack sizes the turn raise size is tricky, seems difficult to deny pot odds while also avoiding awkward stacks on the river. For that reason I think I just ship it here (interested to hear other thoughts on turn sizing).

As played on the river, I probably make this call getting about 2.5:1 (and expect to lose a good amount).

More importantly than the math though is many of the other things you mentioned/alluded to, such as all the history with V, circumstances of the times you've seen him bluff, timing/body language of his turn b/c actions etc. All things that would affect my decision.

Without that info I'm only guessing how often he might under bluff missed hearts or bet the low end of the straight.

+1 on turn raise too small, AP call river. We lose a lot but I think the odds are there.

Thanks guys.. @Spanishmoon, "I cannot imagine a tight V can lead river with anything less than a boat here. Hero is uncapped and banging away the whole hand".. this was my thought too. This guy is a thinking player and I have all the nutted hands so I don't see him leading the river with less than a boat often enough. So, I made what I thought was an exploitative fold.

Agreed, I like a bigger turn raise (450-500) and I think maybe I should call the river just based on the price but still not sure.

Well you overbet the turn and what more can you do besides shipping it in? I suppose it's an OMC or tilter's move and you do see it sometimes.

I would have called for the price as it's only 350 more, we're getting over 7-2 and it's a meta-investment if you play with these sames guys a lot because they'll be more reluctant to bluff you. But it was a gross spot and you had the nut-worst non-heart river. Whatyagonnado?

Anytime I flop broadway in a multi-way pot where I’m the PFR, I usually overbet the flop. Soooo many Vs will show up with 2P or P+FD/P+SD/P+SFD that it gets called enough. a V with a middle pocket pair isn’t floating a 3 card broadway flop to almost any bet anyway so get value from the hands Vs need to have to continue.