Okay guys, I would love some input on this hand, as I have been thinking about it a lot in the last couple of hours. I feel like I made one big error in my play, but I'll let you decide.

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Villain is in the SB and has ~$700 in front of him. Younger Asian guy. Came from a broken table a couple of orbits ago, so not to many reads except that I hadn't seen him in many pots. Hero has him covered.

Hero is in BB with QcQd

UTG raises to $11

folds to SB

Villain calls $11

Hero in BB raises to $45

UTG folds

Villain calls $45

flop comes 2h 4h 7d

Villain Checks, hero bets $75, Villain calls $75

turn 8c

Villain Checks, Hero Bets $140, Villain raises to ~$300, hero shoves, villain calls.


***Okay, so I think we can all agree my play on the flop was fine (you could say I should have bet closer to $100 to make it more of a pot sized bet, but anyways...)

-I thought for a while after he checked the turn to me. The reason I decided to bet was because I felt 99-JJ and AJ-AK of hearts were a big part of his range, and I wanted to extract value. KK+ was possible, but it didn't feel likely, given he only flatted the initial $11 and flatted the $45 3bet pre.

After the re-raise on the turn, this was my chance to get out of the hand. I think I should have realized he could be flatting a 3bet pre with any pair given how deep we were. In the moment, I just couldn't put him on it.

So the way I see it, I had 4 ways to play the hand after the flop

1. As played

2. As played, except bet more than $140 on the turn. There's around $250 in the pot at this point, so $140 is kind of a weak bet (But I'm pretty sure the villain is raising no matter what, so do I bet/fold $2xx?)

3. Fold to the turn raise

4. Check the turn, call his river bet to minimize damage. (If he checked the river, given the line, I would probably bet the river).

Given the result, I definitely wish I had chosen option 4, since I probably only would have lost $150-200 on the river, but I'd love to hear some thoughts on the hand.

I say 3.

In the absence of reads I would also have bet the turn to charge draws. The c/r is bizarre. But aggression here usually means something better than 1p.

His range calling your 3b should be mostly pocket pairs. Doubt he c/c 3 streets with a worse hand than JJ. I would check turn and bomb river, probably $160 on river and fold to a raise.

I agree the c/r is strong enough that I should have folded. In the heat of the moment, I was just really stymied by the c/r (which you and I agree was weird). The more I think about it, I seriously doubt he's making this move with AhKh, JJ, or anything of that nature that I have beat. I just overplayed the ladies...it happens

This is sensible also. In this particular situation, I'm never bombing the river though (unless the river is a Q) since I can virtually guarantee he is leading out on the river. I'm stuck calling any bet less than $300, provided an A, K, or heart doesn't come out.

If he leads river then call or put in a raise depending on sizing.

Okay, so if the river is a blank (irl it was a 2) you really think I can raise a river bet? If he's bluffing a busted fd, he's not calling, so I'm really only getting value from 99-JJ, and even then he might be folding those hands sometimes.

I don't think you should raise river. We are basically turning our hand into a bluff if we do so. He's not calling with worse

Beluga says fold, however, it's a 3bet pot... His turn min raise is so damn strong... I guess it depends how much of his range is TT+ vs sets

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The situation is tough because you made it tough. As for the flop, I would bet less, not more. The biggest reason is that you're not looking to stack off with an overpair 200BB deep without a read that he'll stack off with TP. The average winning hand at show down is 2 pair. You have one pair. A 3/4 PSB put you on a trajectory of shoving on the river.

A smaller bet is easier for a smaller OP or TP to stick around, while still charging a FD. Your range is super strong and a second strong bet on the turn is going to be a big OP.

While you didn't think about it on the flop, on the turn you are getting the sense that the pot is bigger than your hand. That's why you flinched and made a smaller bet. Folding after the raise on the turn is a given. One reason you shoved is that you got yourself pot committed on the turn in a situation where you didn't really want to be. If you had put in less than 30% of your stack, you would have been more inclined to fold. At nearly 40%, it is far more difficult.

Without much read, when that much money goes in, you are unlikely to be ahead with just an overpair.

option 3 is by far the best option. I don't mind a larger flop bet because he is probably calling w/ all his pp's. Your getting value from his made hands and he really doesn't have any FD's AQs maybe AJs. AKs is unlikely because of the flats pre.

With a pp heavy range, we can't expect him to give us 3 streets, unless of course we're beat. I like a large flop bet for value. Check back the turn. There are no scare cards on the river, so I'm calling every reasonable sized bet. If checked to otr, this would be the time to bet and get your second street of value. Never raising or calling a raise at any point in the hand.

I like the smaller flop bet because you get the same information for a cheaper price. It being a three bet pot for a large size at 1/2 your hand is polarized to an over pair and he is going to most likely play more straight forward. I would have chosen two lines here, bet the turn like you did and fold to a raise or check the turn and evaluate river. His range is AK, TT, JJ (maybe) and smaller pocket pairs. The hands you beat are just calling the turn. When he raises the turn he has a set almost every time. If your going to call mostly any river bet then I like the bet/fold on the turn better.

However if he just calls the turn, I'm betting $200 on the river. Most players at 1/2 are going to be raising the turn with their sets.

You can bet smaller on this flop. I could see V calling with 56 here but it's more likely it's pp's and hearts. Bet 55 or even 50 otf since it is dry for a 3b pot hu and you're still charging for hearts.

Check turn for pot control (and also could induce a bet otr if he thinks his pp is good and you whiffed flop). That 7 is still a safe card and we're only scaring away lower pp's.

Tough situation without much reads on V.

Value bet river even if heart comes if checked to.

As played, that river raise is a V's way of trying to play for stacks. Barely over a min-raise. You have to fold here 233bbs deep.

Thanks everyone for the input. The fact that I went AI being a mistake was never in question (I honestly felt like it was a mistake the moment it left my damned lips!)

-I like the notion of betting less on the flop. Venice, you're right about the fact that I built too big of a pot, which lead me to my mistaken AI bet.

-I'm still seeing people on both sides of the argument regarding the turn:

1. Bet/fold turn

2. Check turn, call river bet

-When up against a hand that crushes me (like a set) both lines lose me about the same amount of money (I doubt he's firing a huge bullet on the river after I checked back). If you like option 1, you have to ask: Is he EVER raising with something weaker than my hand here? I personally think the answer is no.

-If you like checking the turn, are you definitely calling whatever he fires on the river (and not raising)? The only big scare card I can think of is Kh. Because I checked the turn, I haven't gauged the relative strength of his hand, and that card hits his perceived range very well.

So I guess after all this discussion, I like bet/fold by a small margin, but you guys are welcome to keep responding to these musings here.

I disagree with betting this flop.

hate flop sizing
checking turn
playing poker on rivers

$60 on flop and check the turn back. His hand looks a lot like a set on the turn so I'd just fold. You can prevent this type of spot by just checking the turn back and calling the river.

+1
I was thinking the same thing in regards to the bet sizing. You don't need to be full pot. You need I be betting 2/3-3/4 pot so you are still charging draws but not completely committing yourself. Once you bet big you advertise the fact that you have an over pair. He can easily fold his draws and slow play his monsters when you bet so big.

I think sets and 87 are all of Vs value range here. Don't see him making this play with a hand like A8 and by the pre flop action I don't think he would call pre flop with AA KK

He bet less than half pot. Betting even less than that seems like it doesn't accomplish much. Flush draws get a good price and we don't get maximum value from his weaker pocket pairs.

I'd bet about $55 or $60 into $100 here. We don't want to bomb the flop against an unknown and make JJ-99 think we always have a bigger pocket pair.

Turn should be a check back followed by a value bet on the river.

Same could be said for his pre-flop bet sizing.

Over-betting pre has two potential adverse effects:
1. It can scare the fish into optimal play by narrowing their range.
2. Because of geometric progression, a big pfr turns into a really big cbet, which turns into a huge turn bet. If you don't want to bloat the pot, pre is a good time to start thinking about this.

I would submit that there is an optimal pfr size, and that exceeding this is almost as bad as betting too little.

To be clear, "too big" is a moving target and can be a really big number sometimes. Occasionally I get away with opening raises of 10x, although that's rare and unsustainable for very long. There's often a sharp inflection point, for example I've been at 1/2 where $12 gets you 4 callers and $15 folds everybody out. I don't think you can predict where that inflection point is; it varies with the table and even at different times based on the mood at the table. But I do feel we need to search for that inflection point, and stay below it.

I understand and appreciate everything you said, but would submit that his problems started with his pfr sizing, which was pretty darn firm.

I'm cool with preflop. There's a little bit of dead money in there now that we're ok with winning now (if that happens), plus we'll most likely end up with the result that we got (HU in position with initiative with money worth winning in the pot).

I might just check back the flop. The SPR is large, so there is no way we can stack off postflop with just an overpair. We might be put to the test of building a huge pot on the flop if Villain check/raises us, so spoil that plan by checking behind and keeping the pot small where now we don't have to stack off. Our hand is a little vulnerable to A/K falling on the turn, and a flush card, but I don't think the concern about that overrides making sure we don't play for stacks here. ETA: The more straightforward/ABC a player is, the more we can just bet/fold the flop safely. The more potentially tricky the villain is (i.e. young Asian, racist ban obviously), the more we should check behind.

As played, I would check back the turn. 65 just got there. Yes, we are giving a free card to a flush draw, but he's only on a flush draw a small percentage of the time plus he'll whiff the majority of the time on the river (where he'll often bluff and we can simply bluffcatch). Again, this controls the size of the pot where we don't play for stacks, plus enables him to bluff the river against our "obvious" AK, plus enables us to perhaps get a second street of value out of him on the river vs a weak pair if he thinks we have AK due to the turn check.

We've 3bet preflop. We bet large on the flop. We bet large on the turn. Gee, I wonder what we have? And yet this guy just check/raised the turn wanting to play for stacks. If we're betting any of these larger streets, we have to fold to the raise. Horrible shove, imo.

GpotcontrolG

grunching:

3 bet is fine

Given his two calls pre, let's range him. Note that you said he isn't playing many pots, so you should be able to put him on a pretty snug range. Lots of pocket pairs mostly lower than yours likely dominate his range, plus big Ax (like AK and AQ). Probably not suited connectors, QJo, Kx suited, etc. based on your read.

Flop, ok with a c bet. When he calls, he's not floating you light. He has a set or an overpair most of the time, plus maybe some Axhh.

Please explain why you should have bet more on the flop? I don't know why you want to make a pot sized bet here. Are you trying to fold out 88-JJ and AK?

Turn, now is the time to check. Really, you are hoping to get value from JJ-99 and Axhh only when you bet the turn. And, even then he should be folding most of those hands to a bet.

Ok, so you bet and he raises. 3 betting the turn is so spewtastic. This is a fold based on your read. This V is almost never bluffing here. His range is mostly sets when he raises here.

60 on flop check turn vs tight unknown call river/bet if he checks