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Totally Serious - Not Trolling - Implied Odds Question Totally Serious - Not Trolling - Implied Odds Question

01-25-2020 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by atenesq
long and super annoying way
Don't read it.
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01-25-2020 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LowStakes
No actually it's a counter-argument to the posts that suggest that 25x DOES include making a pair.
It does include making a pair in those instances where the pair plus whatever gutters and backdoors gives you the equity to continue on the flop action against the raiser's presumptive range of top pair and overpair hands.
It doesn't include situations where you make one pair and obvious x/f is obvious.

This is a rule of thumb. It's not a comprehensive strategy. Parsing it to this extent is dumb masquerading as lofty.
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01-25-2020 , 12:47 PM
"SHUT UP," they explained....
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01-25-2020 , 01:52 PM
When someone states they're not trolling in their title it totally means they're serious
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01-25-2020 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LowStakes
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but this analysis assumes that we will always fold without 2pr+ on the flop. Or at least, we won't put any more money in. We good on that?
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01-25-2020 , 02:15 PM
OP,

I understand this doesnt fit your OP and you're gonna bark at me to stay on topic, but I get the vibe that your idea of learning is challenging people more experienced than you to "prove" certain things or academically surgically resolve logical consistencies or inconsenstencies.

broadly speaking (and i enjoy being broad), i feel like this worldview typically results in playing a weak-ass nitty style that loses lots of chips before showdown. all-in-all too passive, too much credit-giving, thinking too much about the odds needed to continue and not enough about the times you can win the pot without the best hand or maximize value when you have the best hand.

like think about it, if i saw someone at my table playing with your style, dudes who wanna fold 97 on 986 for one bet (LOL), i'm sorry but you're just very easy to play against and you aren't getting value on your made hands and you're probably going to get bluffed off of your marginal hands a ton. and your inexperience will lead to feeling frustrated and forced to PLAY BACK AT THESE DONKEYS and then you'll do something that goes outside of your decision tree that's basically the equivalent of a nit-fish punting it off. so your only means of winning is playing your 10% of hands and hoping there's enough braindead people at the table who aren't paying attention to how nitty you are.

the surgically-inclined worldview that leads to success at poker is GTO, and GTO combines decision trees that involve loads of different decisions and betsizes that are probably above your rim right now because you're too busy thinking about odds to continue and bullshit like that.

that's all i'm gonna contribute, i hope you find fun with poker in the future, cheers m8
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01-25-2020 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
That's why Clayton in the other thread is advocating for a raise. He doesn't want to just depend hitting a big hand. Learning how to be profitable without the best hand is the next big step up for you. Then you can start playing more connectors and smaller pairs.
I don't even think it's so much this, it's more broadly accepting that there is a optimal and balanced grouping of buckets of hands for every decision point, and that the journey is about understanding ranges and what those ranges should do. broadly speaking, an overlimping style where hands like JTs are included in the overlimping is not optimal.

OP, there's like 15 years of experience in this forum on observations and whats and whys etc etc... you have an eternity to dig through it all and learn. stop wasting our time with academic challenges making us prove to you **** that we already knew in 2010. it's arrogant.
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01-25-2020 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
dudes who wanna fold 97 on 986 for one bet (LOL)
you forgot to mention it was a monotone board, and there were only 4BB's in the pot. Oh and we're the SB, so OOP the whole hand.

Not spewing is not the same as nitty. The rest of your post about what my game is like is just a narrative of your severely uninformed imagination.
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01-25-2020 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LowStakes
you forgot to mention it was a monotone board, and there were only 4BB's in the pot. Oh and we're the SB, so OOP the whole hand.

Not spewing is not the same as nitty. The rest of your post about what my game is like is just a narrative of your severely uninformed imagination.
The fact that you think you're really onto something kind of obviates the need for imagination here.
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01-25-2020 , 04:13 PM
Maybe kurtsf will come out of retirement to do battle with lowstakes.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
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01-25-2020 , 06:34 PM
I’m not sure the 15/25/35 rule has any value at all. Preflop is extraordinarily complicated and this is a pretty big oversimplification that seems out of touch with modern poker theory.

The EV of an action is the weighted average of all future outcomes. Whenever we are in a +EV spot post and continue that is part of the EV of the preflop call. Implied odds are only part of the equation.
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01-26-2020 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
I’m not sure the 15/25/35 rule has any value at all. Preflop is extraordinarily complicated and this is a pretty big oversimplification that seems out of touch with modern poker theory.

The EV of an action is the weighted average of all future outcomes. Whenever we are in a +EV spot post and continue that is part of the EV of the preflop call. Implied odds are only part of the equation.
This, especially the first paragraph. The 15/25/35 rule is a crutch for beginners. Really what it is meant to illustrate is that it's not profitable to call raises and play fit-or-fold without pretty serious implied odds. Once you're not playing fit-or-fold, it's all out the window, and it's impossible to map out the entire game tree of poker with "simple assumptions" the way OP is attempting to do.
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01-26-2020 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
This, especially the first paragraph. The 15/25/35 rule is a crutch for beginners. Really what it is meant to illustrate is that it's not profitable to call raises and play fit-or-fold without pretty serious implied odds. Once you're not playing fit-or-fold, it's all out the window
No offense, I believe you're sincerely trying to help. But this type of thinking really tilts me, and it's not the first time it's popped up in this thread

Just a little background, this question was first raised in a different thread where we were talking about calling pre-flop, for implied odds reasons, when playing short-stacked.

My main point is that when you're not playing deep, your skill advantage goes out the window. That "crutch" you just threw out the window....you actually need it now.

The point I've been trying to make is that I believe 35x is NOT deep enough to NOT play fit-or-fold. If we're playing 100BB's deep, (as we often are), and there is a 3x raise (as there often is) that looks like it's about to go highly multi-way to the flop (as it often does), then I think we dump 98s in the CO. There's no money in it.

That's not a matter of skill, or using crutches, or advancing your game beyond fit-or-fold. That's a highly common scenario that shows up all the time in LLSNL and I think calling is a massive massive population-wide leak even among what we would consider "thinking players"

Quote:
, and it's impossible to map out the entire game tree of poker with "simple assumptions" the way OP is attempting to do.
That's a gross misrepresentation of the OP, and the actual meaning has sailed right over your head, even though I've explained it multiple times.

The cost of drawing is equal to ALL the money you put in while drawing. That changes from street to street. However, the maximum amount you could win (implied odds) never changes. It's not correct to evaluate your implied odds based on a single play on a single street.

The "game tree" has many branches. Someone else in this thread, correctly, stated that EV is the average of all of those branches.

So you should account for all of those branches when deciding if playing a certain hand is EV or not.

Last edited by LowStakes; 01-26-2020 at 09:36 AM.
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01-27-2020 , 01:21 PM
My 2 late-to-the-party cents that probably won't matter with LS now being banned...

*If* you're playing hit-your-hand-poker, and you're going to end up HU OOP to your opponent, and your opponent is an experienced player (which the vast majority of your opponents will be nowadays), you will not have the IO to call raises in these spots with speculative hands, regardless of stacks sizes. You'll need 3+ large postflop bets going in before this spot becomes profitable, and most opponents nowadays are semi-capable enough to prevent this from happening (by either checking back a street, or betting very small, or not continuing very far facing a check/raise).

The other stuff mentioned (such as the money you lose when you continue not having hit your hand, or when you're on the bad side of a cooler / he sucks out on you by the river, or he doesn't pay off with his KK on A high flops, etc.) is just icing on the cake to help re-enforce this. But even if your 55 flopped T65s against his KK and held up every single time, it's very unlikely (imo) you'd be profitable against a large number of opponents even with unlimited stacks behind. (assuming we're playing hit-out-hand poker)

GcluelessIOnoobG
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01-27-2020 , 02:01 PM
At least we still have access to the groundbreaking knowledge contained in this thread.
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