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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 01-13-2018, 08:04 AM   #1
DumbosTrunk
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Top two on turn versus huge bet

Hi all,

1/3 MGM MD. Am on button with AQ raise to $12. BB calls and limper in EP calls. I have about $90 behind. Pot $36.

Flop: Qd-Jd-5s. Checked to me and I bet $16. Two callers. Pot $84.

Turn: Ah. BB donks enough to put me all in. EP limpers folds. Hero?

Thanks,
DT
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Old 01-13-2018, 08:26 AM   #2
paratrooper99
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Easy game when you start with 30BB. Are you short stacking this game purposely? If so, why?
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Old 01-13-2018, 08:29 AM   #3
DumbosTrunk
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

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Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
Easy game when you start with 30BB. Are you short stacking this game purposely? If so, why?
Just bankroll issues. A friend spotted me for this game. I’m assuming this is a snap call with my stack size?

Does it matter that villain is a friend of mine? Young TAG.
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Old 01-13-2018, 10:48 AM   #4
Javanewt
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Bet more on flop (charge draws and make it even easier to gii on turn). Call turn with this stack size.
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Old 01-13-2018, 04:06 PM   #5
Nogyong
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Bet larger on the flop and be prepared to get the chips in.

On the turn this is a trivially easy call given the strength of our hand and the size of our stack relative to the pot. We basically only need to win one in three times to break even.

Given that villain is a friend, that should weight him more toward nutted hands (i.e. he may be trying to tell you to get out of the way). But your hand is still too good to fold with these pot odds.

Do you think the BB would make the mistake of playing ace-rag suited preflop against a raise from a 30bb stack? Would he 3-bet pre-flop with AK and JJ? Did you have 90 behind before the preflop raise or after?

Feel free to adjust the following range and run your own simulation:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,760 trials (Exhaustive)
board: QJ5A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcQh47.56% 749176
KT,AQ,AJ,QJ,55,Ac5c,Ad5d,AdTd,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d52.44% 835176
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Old 01-13-2018, 09:31 PM   #6
monikrazy
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Like others said, bet more on flop

Calling it off without more info on villain
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Old 01-14-2018, 05:33 PM   #7
DumbosTrunk
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong View Post
Bet larger on the flop and be prepared to get the chips in.

On the turn this is a trivially easy call given the strength of our hand and the size of our stack relative to the pot. We basically only need to win one in three times to break even.

Given that villain is a friend, that should weight him more toward nutted hands (i.e. he may be trying to tell you to get out of the way). But your hand is still too good to fold with these pot odds.

Do you think the BB would make the mistake of playing ace-rag suited preflop against a raise from a 30bb stack? Would he 3-bet pre-flop with AK and JJ? Did you have 90 behind before the preflop raise or after?

Feel free to adjust the following range and run your own simulation:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,760 trials (Exhaustive)
board: QJ5A
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcQh47.56% 749176
KT,AQ,AJ,QJ,55,Ac5c,Ad5d,AdTd,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d52.44% 835176
I feel like I screwed up by raising only to $12 preflop. I had been raising to $25 to get heads up (it was a pretty loose table). This time with "only" AQ I decided to raise less. Oh well. BB had K-10 off (which he presumably would have folded to a larger raise) for the nut straight. (EP limper said he had 10-9dd for OESFD and FOLDED on the turn!?) I got stacked by my friend and was very unhappy for making a bad call. His big donk bet was, after all, a signal to me to get out. I didn't listen.
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Old 01-14-2018, 05:40 PM   #8
Javanewt
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

I raise the same amount every time (depending on position, limpers, etc.), which makes things much "easier."
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Old 01-15-2018, 12:02 AM   #9
brianatca
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

I would shove and cross fingers due to short stack situation.
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Old 01-15-2018, 06:22 AM   #10
Nogyong
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Re: Top two on turn versus huge bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
I got stacked by my friend and was very unhappy for making a bad call.
You did not make a bad call.

Your friend made a very bad call by calling a preflop raise by a tight shortstack out of position with KTo.

You could have raised to 14 or 15, that would have been fine. Raising to 25 would have been bad.

If you play poker, you will sometimes get coolered. This was a very standard spot.
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