Looks like I botched up this hand on all streets.

5/5 game:

Villain is a regular. Thinks I am way tighter than I am. He plays mostly tight against me but probably has some bluffs against other players.

He opens in MP for $35 with the straddle on. I call from the BB with AK. I would sometimes raise this but I also liked the idea of having strong hands in my calling range against this player. UTG folds.


Flop ($105): KQ6

I check, he bets $50. I call.

Turn ($205): A

I check. He bets $100. The small bet feels like he is not strong. Usually he would give up after a flop bet against me. So I feel I am ahead although he could have smaller flushes, KQ, AQ, a set that he is afraid to raise bigger against me. But with a set he probably bets bigger. I raise to $300. He thinks for a bit and calls.

River ($805): 4

Hero? Should I continue here? If so for how much? Or should I check?

Stack size man.

Stack size is important, but wit 100bb+, I check/call again. Don't let him off the hook and don't get bluff/raised (and don't own yourself).

I probably 3bet pre, but I understand your decision -- not sure I like it from BB.

I would just 3! this pre -- you're gonna be OOP with a hand that makes TPTK and not a whole lot more. Assuming you're full stacked with 500, you can pop it to ~120 to get a pot of about 250, so you have an SPR of less than 2 and can just commit when you hit otf.

As played, I like the ch/c otf. Ott, you can just RRAI and get it in against a weaker range (assuming he calls with AsXx, JsXx, weaker 2P). This assumes you start with 100bb. But yeah, stack sizes would help.

As is obviously in his range.

AJss, ATss are all possible hands.

Depending on effective, I would probably bet/fold $300.

How often do you get bluff raised in this spot? I mean...

Hard to put in too many JXsx in V's range.

KJ, QJ are probably the only two we can beat: 6 combos.

While we're way behind JT: 4 combos.

AXsx that we can extract value from: AJo, AQo, ATo - 11 combos.

Range that we are really bad against: AKsx, AJss, ATss: 4 combos.

Plus we cannot simply disregard sets in V's range: QQ, KK, AA - 5 combos.

So 13 combos that crush us, 17 combos that might call but still has a ton of value against our hand and has position.

Not sure I like the CR, definitely not liking the CRAI. This looks to be a classic case of cooler, and I do not like being H right now.

Stack sizes are obviously really important. This is a weird spot though.

I think by the river his range is a lot of AXs and As+ pair. If you check I think V takes the free showdown a lot. If you bet something like $200-$250 (stack dependent obviously) you may get a crying call from a bare ace since the river bricked all draws. You can also safely bet/fold because it would just be lunacy for V to raise with anything you currently beat. Especially since your read is that he views you as tight.

Preflop is fine closing the action HU. Flop fine.

CR on turn is highly optimistic. Are we ahead or behind? Do we want more money in the pot or FE? He cannot lead without the As in his hand, can he?

Prefer to check/call river. I agree he shouldn’t have too many bluffs on the river but I think his turn lead/overcall suggests he has Asx minimum. I’d hate to get blown off our top two when we have a lot of SDV.

Problem with checking river is, V could set a price higher than what we are willing to pay.

$300 - easy.

$500 - not so easy.

V checking behind = lost value.

On the other hand, bet/fold $300 checks all the boxes, unless of course, we think V is capable of raising with weaker range and turning As into bluff.

That would be so rare in LLSNL that I wouldn't even bother with such scenario.

Just think, how many of you are capable of raising $300 bet on the river with AsXx less than AK? And wouldn't you consider $300 cheap enough showdown for $1100 pot to happily call with Ax?

This is my thinking as well. Checking the river caps our range and a good V can make our life very miserable with a large bet knowing we can't ever have a flush. A 1/3-1/4 sized bet can still get called by hands we beat. If V raises this bet as a bluff, nice hand. V just can't be bluffing enough in this spot to make folding a mistake.

Ooops! Effectieve stack size is $1150

At 5/5 vs. a reg V 200bb+ (100 w/ straddle, but whatever) deep who thinks you are tight? I'd say it happens enough. He should be doing it quite often with AsXx.

And, no, I'm not calling $300 on the river with a naked A vs. a tight player who called my raise pre OOP and check/called flop and raised turn.

How often is enough though? 5% of the times, 25% of the times?

Given the context, that is an important factor.

And if your game routinely bluff raises on the river, that’s gotta be one of the toughest LLSNL games anywhere. I am not sure if it belongs in discussion in these threads.

I don't know the % because I don't know this villain, but he's a reg in what seems to be a deepish 5/5 game, so he should have some clue.

I play in a very deep 1/3 game, usually w/ a $10 rock or straddle with $1,000 - $5,000 stacks (a few weeks ago my husband cashed out for $14,000, up only $9,000). A $300 bet would get raised a lot by some of the regs with the naked As vs. someone whom they perceive as tight.

As always, it depends on the players involved.

Even when the raise would be essentially a min raise with little fold equity?

Well, clearly you’re projecting your crazy 1/3 game into this LLSNL hand. I do not think it’s the same context.

Again, it depends on the players. Some of the posters here (including you and Tanq) are advocating bet/fold, so it would work quite a bit.

This post is 5/5, so probably a bit better than typical LLSNL. The players in my game are not crazy (well, not all of them). A few travel and play professionally, but at home, this is about it. And they have bunch of scared money / tight players to play against, which works beautifully.

Correct and I laid out rationales as to why it works.

Your rationale is that V “could” bluff raise, not much to go on. At least provide an estimate of what V’s bluff frequency is.

And back to this: are you really calling $300 on the river with AsXx less than AK vs. a player you perceive as tight who has called your pre-flop raise OOP, called your flop bet and raised your turn bet? If so, please come to my game.

Again, how in the world would I know? I don't know V and have never played with him. At my game some of the Vs vs. perceived tight players would raise this almost every time -- because they are folding almost every time.

Some of them are calling stations, but you don't bluff calling stations.

OP, does V think you'll fold to a river shove or call? That makes a huge difference.

Javanewt, do feel free to bring in some rationales beyond just “you don’t know V” but he has “better than 0%” chance of doing something.

1100:300 odds. LLSNL players don’t fold hands with that strong SDV in these spots.

Plus there are other intent to make such bet sizing. We are perfectly ok with folds.

Mandatory 3b pre especially in a straddled pot and especially if UTG is the straddler.

AP pre, I think you make a lot more money check-calling turn and checking all rivers. You must leave him with the option to rep the hand you actually have on rivers (like this one). Plus, with your image, and that bway completing turn, his turn bet-call range has you in trouble. If deep enough and he has the As (along with made hands that beat AK), you're in for a world of hurt.