First hand of a 1/2 home game. 5-handed

V1 - 30-ish white guy, backwards hat on. Never played with him before, and no reads other than he seems to know the host so must play some.
V2 - white guy, 35-ish, was smoking a cigarette with V1 waiting for the game to start. Played with him several months ago, vague recollection that he's loose/spewy.
Hero - 35 year old white guy. Just out of work so in a suit.

Effective stacks are $200.

V1 is UTG and limps. V2 calls. Hero is OTB and looks down at AK. Hero raises to $12. Blinds fold and both V1 and V2 call.

Flop ($33) - AK7. V1 donks out for $21. V2 folds. Hero raises to $70 all day. V1 calls.

What do people think of the raise? I usually read a flop donk bet to be top pair, and was hoping to get value. Could also be a flush draw, or maybe a set (though I think a set probably checks to the raiser), assume he almost never has air here. Tried to size to make sure that he wasn't getting odds to call with a flush draw, but probably could have gone a bit bigger. Plan was to shove any non-heart turn, evaluate any heart turn.

Turn ($170) - 6. V1 donks out for $35. Hero?

I hate this card. Once he calls the raise on the flop, think he has a lot of heart draws. On the other hand, he could have a worse ace (especially with a heart) or two pair, so I could be ahead, I have 4 outs to a boat and the bet is just begging to be called.

So the donk could be a variety of hands not just hearts. We beat two pair hands, 1pair hands with heart draws like KxJh.

With little to no history call turn. Reevaluate river.

Why are we just calling? If we just call we will have put $117 of our $200 stack in the pot. If we feel we are good enough to call the turn we may as well just ship it.

924 games 0.001 secs 924,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Kh 7d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.913% 69.91% 00.00% 646 0.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 30.087% 30.09% 00.00% 278 0.00 { 77, A7s-A6s, QhJh, JhTh, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, A7o-A6o, KcQh, KdQh, KsQh }


Not sure if we can include the AQ in there because he limped pre and pretty sure we can rule out AA,KK,AK.

If we take out the AQ combos we still have about 68% equity.

tl;dr If we are good enough to call turn bet we may as well jam

Appreciate the stove. You wouldn't know where I can download the newest version would you?

Thanks for the stove, this is great. Should we have a few more flush combos in there? People limp call QT, J9, T9, T8, 98 suited type hands a lot (at least in my games). Probably could have some more pair + FD hands too (AxJ, KxJ, maybe AxT, etc.) Doubt this has a meaningful impact though, suspect we're still pretty far ahead.

My main question is what to make of the super-small bet on the turn. This felt like a bet of hand that just hit and didn't want to lose a customer. Would actually be a brilliant bet with a pair and a FD (setting his price) but hard to give someone credit for that without a good read. Given the small-sizing, I just called in game, but could see the benefit of shoving.

With remaining stack sizes shove turn

I think your sizing is fine thus far. I would just jam the turn, though I don't have stove w me and I think the proposed range is a little loose. I wouldn't include the KxQh hands without a read, and agree that there are probably more hands in there that have a flush OTT.

not the greatest card but i still shove, you can get called by many worse Ax hands and Ax with a heart. i would hate to flat the 35 and than have a heart hit the river and have to fold.

If we take out the KQo hands and put in a few more made flushes our equity goes down a lot.

I would still jam because of the small bet sizing. It looks as if he has a pair with the Qh and is trying to see a cheap river.

Either way we can never just call turn. Jam or fold

To whoever asked about stove you can still get it here. He updated it a while ago so it works now.

I would raise slightly larger pre - $15 or 17. Not a huge deal, but it will inflate the pot on later streets, and might have saved you from the awkward turn bet. for example, your flop raise may have been closer to $100, where you can now force him to think about playing for his stack.

As played, I think you have to make the tough lay down. It looks like a small value bet to induce a shove. I would weigh his range more towards made flushes, but if you think you can include enough hands in his range that you beat within reason then shove.

Tough spot because the exact range is so important in determining the equity. IMO correct play is fold but live I probably shove. Thanks for your post!

Thanks. Can we really fold here? Real life worst case scenario is that he has a flush, in which case I have 4 outs to make a boat, so about 9%. Bet is $35 into 170, and we have another $90 or so back that I assume will all get in if he has a flush and I fill up, so I'm calling $35 to win about $300. If he has any hands I'm ahead of here think I have to at least call.

Yeah you're right it would be super nitty to fold to the $35.. but you're still only getting ~8.6:1 on the $35 with implied pot odds, and 9% equity so it is marginally -EV to call if you are strictly drawing to your boat. Surely if you make the $35 call he will shove any river right? So do you call any rivers where you don't boat up? If not then calling the $35 IS strictly drawing to the boat.

I think either you find a range where you have enough equity to shove the turn, or you are strictly drawing to your boat which is going to put you in a slightly -EV situation. (nitty, like I said. Even if the correct play is a fold I likely would not)

Can anyone correct me if my thinking is incorrect here?

I don't know that you're thinking is incorrect here, in that in retrospect shoving may have been the best line. But, since I just flat-called in game, let me explain my thinking.

1. It's a strange line for V1 to be betting this small with a pair + a draw. That type of hand would probably either check to see a cheap river or bet big to get some fold equity.
2. If that's the case, he has a flush or a (very unlikely) set (both of which beat me) or two pair or a single pair (both of which I'm ahead of). If I shove, flushes certainly call, and sets likely call, while a single pair without a draw folds and two pair has a tough decision.
3. So, if I think he doesn't have any drawing hands he plays this way shoving could be a situation in which I'm only called by better and I'm folding out all the hands I beat. Of course, my assumption may be faulty, as I don't have any reads.
4. On the other hand, if I flat call I can't be making a huge mistake, since I'm close to getting the right implied odds and his range is wide enough that I could be ahead. Of course, if I don't improve and he shoves the river I'm hating life, but at least in that case he's a bit more likely to have some weird bluff or two pair that I can beat. If I shove the turn and he calls I'm almost certainly beat.

All that said, this is based on the assumption he never plays this way with a draw, which is at best debatable. Given the potential of pair + FD hands, which I discounted at the time but I may be wrong about, shoving may have been best.

I don't think most V's at 1/2 are betting small to induce a shove as that play isn't in their book. It looks more like a blocker bet to me.

lol this stove range only includes 2 made flushes, yet gives villain a6o.

if the villain has a flush draw or a hand weaker than a flush, jamming blows him off everything you beat, while fully donating to the made flushes

just call turn and probably call river, if you're willing to jam it in now

I'm assuming you were planning on shoving the turn if he didn't bet. You only have 118 back and the pot is 170. I wouldn't let this 35 dollar bet change your plan.

If that wasn't your plan, it would be helpful to know what it was. Was it to let him draw for free, make some weird 1/4 pot bet and let him draw cheaply, or what were you planning?

Vil doent have set. Turn lead very polarized between made flush and ace with heart. I think we can call turn here and see river. We commited most of our stack but I think we can shove any non heart river and get called with a ton of A type hands.

My plan was to shove any non-heart turn, except for maybe an A or a K which I'd probably play a bit slower. Plan was to evaluate heart turns.

Thanks for the thoughts all. Results:

Hero calls the $35 bet. River is a K (Yahtzee!). Villain plays with his stack a bit and shoves, Hero snap calls, Villain shows QJ hearts for top flush which loses Hero's boat.

Interesting hand to me, especially without reads. Villain clearly should have shoved turn with less than a pot-sized bet and holding the nuts, which would have given me a much tougher decision.

Yea the turn bet is weird and I didn't expect him to have that hand. Would be interesting to know why he played it that way.

grunch.

Shove turn. SPR is less than 1, weak donk bet looks more like a blocker than a flush, he probably calls off with his entire range.

Playing with him the rest of the evening, think the answer is that he wasn't very good. I assume his thinking was that he had the nuts and didn't want to lose a customer, so he made a super-small bet to make sure I came along. Probably didn't think about the fact that I was drawing to beat him still.

Late 2 cents here .. I saw both the Flop and Turn bets as 'blocker' types of bets to keep people in the hand under his terms but still get chips into the pot. Of course the Turn bet is sized way wrong if you had had a set but he could have been trying to induce also.

By flatting the Flop raise you can rule out sets for him I would think ... but you can't rule out sets on Turn since he may now feel like he needs to draw out if you made your flush.

I probably wouldve shoved the Turn knowing that I may not get paid on the River ... but you did, lucky IMO. So what if you fold out hands that you were beating ... They only pay off the River on a super blank anyway the way this guy was betting out IMO. By flatting you give AxQh a cheap draw to the nuts.

This is a case where 2 bad plays by him didn't pay off for him (like they ususally do at 1-2). He shouldve shoved Turn (or at least matched your Flop $70) and he shouldn't have shoved River to let you bluff off your Kx hands.

You sent him a message on the Flop and he put his chips in bad anyway ... good to know for future hands. Tough spot against unknowns, in the first hand of a home game no less, and we aren't sure how many bullets you brought with you either. Hope things carried through like this the rest of the night ... you never want all your luck early in a session or in the first 4 levels of a tournament. GL