Hero (400) - Late 20's TAG. Perceived as solid. Have not shown down any hands yet. Been at the table about an hour.

Villain (230) - Late 20's TAG. Plays less than 1 hand per orbit and usually raises if hes playing. 15 standard open. Usually plays tournaments and cash after. This is my first time playing with him but I have seen him stack off with 1 pair for 100BBs OTF before and was right. Capable of bluffs and is not afraid to play for stacks.

2 folds to Hero who opens to 12 with AJ. 4 callers. Villain calls out of the BB. 6 way to the flop. (LOL) Normally I would open higher if I knew the table was calling like this, but this literally was the first time I had seen a multiway pot this big. Everyone started cracking out to see flops.

(66 after drop)

J 54

Hero leads out 35.
- I want to get value from smaller Jx's, possibly PP's that want to put me on big cards, and draws so I tried to size my bet accordingly

Folds to Villain who raises to 85.

Hero?

This was my thinking at the time so please comment. I have villains range here MAYBE KJ or QJ, but not likely. He would probably flat those. Most likely its either 54, 55,44 or a combo draw. The combination of FD/SD and combo draws is a lot higher than the 2 pair or set combos, so I felt this was where his range was weighted towards. Because of this, if I shove here then most likely were flipping or drawing thin. I decided to flat and then GII on any non-spade turn. If turn is a spade then I re-eval.

Turn 2.

Villain shoves hero snaps.

I just want to know what you guys think about my flop analysis and if its better to just either fold or GII there rather than flat and GII on a safe turn.

I'll post results later.

Leading for pot in this big of a MW pot, where you get tptk makes him basically either have to shove or fold in a spot like this with his stack size.
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True, but I also don't want to fold out hands I crush. A PSB looks a lot like an OP.

He'll c/r higher with a combo draw so he can fully commit

Fold flop. If villain is an obvservant tag as described, he'll know your cbetting flop range into 6 ppl from ep is pretty strong. I expect his range to look something like sets maybe 2 pair and combo draws.

Without any history I'd just muck.


In b4 jamie gold references

Fold against this V as played, but mostly I have an issue with this:
This is LLSNL. If you bet ~50-55, it's very unlikely someone is folding QJ or any draw. Obv you can't size this bet 6-way based on the stack of the guy who turned out not to be folding; what do the other stacks look like? When you bet 35 and get three callers, are you planning to gii on most turns?

Thx. For whatever reason, if we are fairly certain villains range is heavily weighted towards FD/SD combos (pretty much flipping), is it higher EV to flat flop and GII on safe turns or just stuff now?

--Also, (and this may be FPS), what if villain knows that I know how strong my bet looks and knows how strong his raise looks?

Table is pretty tight passive. Most villains are at least semi-competent and will fold TP to a PSB from me. 35 is much more likely to be called by hands I am well ahead of. Most of the stacks were around 200 to start the hand. If i got 3 callers, yes I will most likely GII on safe turns barring any reads. (because if villains had me beat on this flop, w/ stack sizes they are probably just shoving flop to protect against a draw)

I think you are crushed a lot of the time and not a huge favorite the times you area ahead. I'd fold.

The Flop raise was small, which I weight towards value for most Villains. The turn shove seems like player is relieved spade didn't come and wants to "protect his hand." Also, if player is playing less than 1 hand per orbit, then he doesn't have a lot of low suited connectors and suited aces in his hand. Although this discounts 54, it means we have to strongly consider 55 and 44 here.

Possible V has same hand sometimes, but I still think this is a fold in most Low Stakes games against tight players.

Villain check raised you on this board from 35 to 85 so you only have to call 50$ into a pot that will be 235. However even with a blank on the turn, I still estimate your equity is going to be somewhere around 25% against his range.

V is mostly check raising you on the flop here with sets and combodraws, so you are way behind.

Unless you have a good reason to believe his small check raise shows weakness, fold flop

I agree with most of what everyone is saying about fold to flop raise. My first gut instinct was to fold once he raised. It looked too much like 44 or 55. But when I thought about it some more, I think a set comprises 30-40 % of his range. The remainder is AK/AQss (discounted because I have A blocker), KQss,KJss, J10ss, 67 or 78ss. I think 5% of the time he also has KJ or QJ off. [[This is a TAG villain, however I have to think that he is calling out of the blinds with more hands than just 44 and 55 in a multiway pot. I think SC's are in his range]]
That being said, I think my equity is higher than 25% against this, but I cant check because I'm at work right now, will look later unless someone wants to stove it for me.

Then I thought about what I would do in Villains spot with what I perceive his range to be. His raise does look super strong because its right at the "Leverage Point", and villain knows it. Villain also knows that I know this and that he's stuffing on the turn NMW, so essentially him betting 85 is really him betting the rest of his stack.

Once I called flop, villain fidgeted in his seat a TAD. It was subtle, but I caught it. On the blank turn his face said "Well this is my stack and thats how big the pot is so I have to shove". I was calling any non spade turn anyway, but the read def made it a little easier. The main question I really had about this whole thing is lets say we KNOW with 95% certainty villain has a combo draw and we know 9 of his outs are spades. Is it higher EV to shove flop or flat and shove a safe turn? Im assuming its the latter but I just wanted to double check.

Flop (i focus on the flop because much our decision will be made when we face the flop raise in this hand: our plan and assign range for villain should be made when we make our flop decision):

Your reasoning/thinking process is something i agree on OP. You have flopped pretty good with top top, and can certainly get fat value from worse jacks like QJ/KJ or flushdraws.

However i think you sized your flopbet to small. Your betting half pot, wich i find way to small in this spot. I rather want like 50 on the flop, instead of 35. For two main reasons

1) By sizing your flopbet this small you define the ranges of your villains in a suboptimal way, because you sort of induce them to raise your pretty weak looking bet. Now, that can be a positive outcome of course (when you hold a monster a size your bet because you want to induce light raises), but when your holding a vulnerable valuehand like top top- it more often than not forces you to fold your hand to a raise. If you bet relatively strong, like 50 or 55 into 66 dollar pot on the flop: you can find a fold more easy IF you get raised: just because the range that is raising that bet generally is stronger. Its also easy to level yourself into fancy play syndrome thoughts to get involved in a big hand with a vulnerable hand when your half pot bet do get raised.

2) Flushdraws or QJ/KJ are pretty much never folding to a strong sized bet on the flop, so get value while you can. Especially flushdraws seems to pay for their draw no matter what prize your giving them.


Bottom line is i like a fold on the flop here, and especially on the turn when your opponent keeps firing. In a single raised 6 way to the flop pot i just dont think top top is going to be good very often when your faced with this amount of heat from a TAG who plays 1 hand pr hour.

A very important question here is to figure out how he plays big draws, and especially flushdraws- do you have any proof of villain fastplaying flushdraws/combodraws? Have you seen him play flushdraws this aggressive before, or even pure air?

He runs with a crew of guys who are all TAGS, but very aggressive. I overheard him talking about a tourney hand like a week ago saying he 5bet shoved J10 and got called by 99 and was super pissed when he bricked out. I knew this guy had the "aggression gear". They are most likely 2+2'ers and there was not a doubt in my mind that villain was capable of playing a flushdraw/combo this way. For whats it worth also, he was raising average of once per orbit, maybe once every 15 hands (not once per hour) So tight, but not super duper nitty.

When I posted this thread I liked the size of my flop bet. I did not want to push out worse, but I think I was just leveling myself as this is 1-2 and they always call with top pair. I also think betting 50 or so makes folding much easier if I get raised OTF as to not get leveled (thinking they're raising me light because my bet looks weak).

B/F 50 OTF would be better.


Results:

Hero snaps turn, river brick. Villain holds his hand over the muck and I show my AJ and he mucks. I asked him what he had later and he said KQ

Thats pretty much why i am not a fan of continuing with the hand when he raise the flop. Even when he has a combodraw like KQss or A3ss instead of a set, villain is flipping with you approximately 50/50 in equity on the flop. The big draws parts of his range is cut solid down on the brick turn of course.

What i like about this hand is that you infact dont ship the flop. Your read is that flushdraws can be in his range, so by just calling and letting him keep firing- your keeping the weeker part of his range in the hand, wich i think is gold in situations like this. If you just ship the flop you are either miles behind versus a set when called, or he can comfortably call with big drawing hands who has 12-15 outs against you.

Most of the time you are either flipping, or miles behind when he raises the flop here in this spot- that pretty much sums it up for me.

If V can 5 bet shove JT, and you can say he is very aggressive then I can't see myself folding flop.

Flat flop. Then Check/snap when he ships on non spade/non over (unless Ace)

I think the fact that he understands stack leverage, and is very aggressive is enough for me to call ott when no spade or over hits.

never shipping otf when he raises though.

Bet more otf, otherwise your line is fine.

What's up!

Should describe positions of everyone in the OP.

bet flop larger, $50-60. Villian described in OP after checkraise I range as 54 suited, (3c), 55, 44, unlikely JJ, All Axss, connencted Jxss, gutter and oesd+fd's, nude fd's.

JAM.