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Top set pretty deep

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01-17-2016 , 01:10 PM

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

This is probably pretty obvious but I don't normally play very deep so I wanted to post. This is a live $2/$5 game

A fish ($425) in LP raised to $25. I'm in the SB ($1200) and call with 99. BB also has about $1200 and calls as well.

Flop came 965 with a flush draw. I led out $70. BB raised to $170. The fish went all in for $400. Im 95% sure he has an overpair. Its back to me. Based on my read of the BB who is a law student and is playing standard TAG, I know he has 66, 55 or 87. This seems like an obvious shove for me but like I said I dont play deep very often.

Thoughts?

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01-17-2016 , 01:14 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,522

Shoving all day. He'll never get away from the other sets, and if he has 78, you still have 35% equity in the side pot and almost as much in the main, with the fish sitting at like 1%

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01-17-2016 , 01:32 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,494

Shove seems good here.
Sorry you didn't boat up.

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01-17-2016 , 01:46 PM

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

It's not "that" deep. you can't really fold top set for 240BB. It feels like a lot, but it's not enough. Just do some basic math and you'll see a profit.

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01-17-2016 , 04:36 PM

Hardball47

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 13,301

Call, don't shove.

If your intent is to GII anyway, let the BB shove. If you call the all-in, there's going to be $1045 in the pot with $1105 behind. If BB shoves, he'll add another $1105 into the pot. Your odds are still going to closely match your equity.

If you shove, there's a non-zero chance that villain will fold his hand. He'll be more likely to fold 55 than 66, obviously, but still it's close. Your beating 6 combos, but losing to 16. Even the ratio of hand combos that you're losing against to the ratio your beating is close to 2:1 (~2.6:1). If he has 6 of the hands that you beat out of the 22, then give him a chance to make a mistake and shove.

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01-17-2016 , 05:18 PM

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

I'm calling instead of shoving as well. The only reason to shove is to force out flush draws, but I'm fine with flush draws getting committed to this pot. I'm never drawing dead on the turn and I'm drawing to the nuts.

Definitely not thinking about folding for a second.

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01-17-2016 , 07:30 PM

dev0wned

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 199

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Shoving all day. He'll never get away from the other sets, and if he has 78, you still have 35% equity in the side pot and almost as much in the main, with the fish sitting at like 1%

Can't respond better than this!

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01-17-2016 , 11:20 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,522

There aren't 16 combos of 78 that call a 5x raise from the BB. He has at most half of those combos in his range, and more likely 4 (the suited ones).

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01-17-2016 , 11:49 PM

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

I generally ship this because so many turn cards either make us hate life or kill our action. If you are sure about his range, then we don't fear nearly so many cards but if villain has 55/66, can he get away on a turn that straightens or flushes the board? Because that's quite a lot of cards that could stop us getting paid. OTOH if he can fold 55 to a shove, that's another way we're not getting paid. Might be worth mapping out a decision tree to illustrate the various possibilities.

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01-17-2016 , 11:55 PM

#10

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,855

I agree with the shove. The BB raised you. If he has hand he has any qualms about, he's never going to call the $400 shove either. If you're behind, you want two cards to boat up anyway.

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01-18-2016 , 07:22 AM

#11

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

There aren't 16 combos of 78 that call a 5x raise from the BB. He has at most half of those combos in his range, and more likely 4 (the suited ones).

I hear this logic all the time - that people fold unsuited connectors, but play the suited ones. I think it's an exaggeration. I see plenty of unsuited connectors played at $2/$5 and below.

As for the hand, the problem with flatting is that there are going to be cards that either slow down our opponent or slow us down.

What are we doing when the 2 comes completing the flush? An offsuit 7 or 8?

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01-18-2016 , 11:56 AM

#12

spikeraw22

The Situation

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 8,741

Calling is not good. If the board pairs you lose a lot of action from 78. If 4 to a straight hits, you either lose or lose action from his sets. If the flush hits, nobody wants to put much more money in. This is a pretty clear cut shove.

I also agree that 78o is in the BB range for a lot of players.

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