I’m curious on what people’s opinions are here on villains’ ranges as we go to the turn.

1/3

Button (covers) is a somewhat thinking hyper lag boardering on maniac. He loves to gamble, didn’t show up to fold pre, but isn’t a station post. He raises about 75% of his straddles. We have played together a lot and views me as solid tag. I have limp reraised a decent amount against him in the past with a strong but more merged than typical range since he continues against my limp reraises at a very high frequency.

MP1 ($400) is a older nitty type player

MP2 ($400) seems like a typical loose passive rec.

Hero (SB) ($600) Fairly new to the table, transferred from 2/5 and have won a few pots without showdown and got in AA 3 ways pre and won the side pot.

Table is pretty loose preflop and people are playing and raising a lot of hands.

Button straddles, I limp red kings, mp1 and mp2 limp and straddle checks. Oh well.

Flop: KsQs7s

Pot: $25

H $25, everyone calls.

Pot: $125

Turn 3h.

So this is where I want to discuss what we think V’s ranges look like here before we decide on bet vs check.

Possible ranges:

So for the first two villains, factoring in the preflop action, I think they are continuing on the flop, either through a flat or a raise with something like:

KT-KQo, K9s-KTs, QxJs-Qx9s, 77, six combos of AsXo, JTo with a spade. I think there are about 21 combos of made flushes in their range.

I range hyper lag as all Kx with a spade except KT+ which he raises pre. Qx9s, all made flushes, K7, Q7, JT with a spade, AsX.

The question then becomes at what frequency do they raise flushes, KQ, and 77 on the flop? I think the nut flush is most likely to trap so if the recs trap A2-A9s (and raise bigger AsXs pre) and they raise all other flushes, then we are against 7 combos each of trapped flushes from the recs. Let’s say they also raise their 77 combos. Now the maniac has every flush combo in his range pre but let’s say he only traps 5 combos and also raises all AsX.

Conclusions based on my ranges:

So I’d we put those ranges into an equity calculator I have the best hand on the turn about 40.5% of the time and have about 42% equity overall. Bet and check both seem reasonable based on these ranges.

You should be betting this board at a higher frequency with a smaller sizing.with wet boards like this you are very susceptible to being check raised. its a lot easier to continue with a smaller sizing and you still get value

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That’s a lot of thought, but maybe I’m missing Something here. Won’t nitty guy always raise a made flush with 3 players and won’t maniac always raise with The As and probably the Js?

Pot turn / call off

I think it’s very possible nit traps no flushes here, I don’t have a big sample with him at all. I put in my assumptions that maniac is raising all AsXx. I’m sure he raises some JsXx, so maybe we can take out some JsTx.

MW I think betting is better here. Need to get value from villains draws and Kx before any scarecards hit river
Can consider checking vs hyper lag HU but given flop action I think you're good the majority of the time

Agreed. My question before was to lead into ‘fire on the turn.’ I think you’re ahead of most of their ranges and want to build value.

Of course this is LLNL, so when the river is a blank and someone has 85ss don’t go on tilt.

I'd bet about $75. Probably call maniac's and fold to nit and lp players' raise. Evaluate river -- hope it's a paired board.

Seems as if maniac was expecting your limp/re-raise, so might start mixing that up a bit

Preflop is standard for me especially in this dynamic with the Button.

I'm also donking the flop but probably for less. I'm basing my sizing not on what I think people will call on this board (it's irrelevant so long as sizing is "reasonable", imo, and the fact we got 3 callers to a PSB is a perfect example of this), but rather on what size pot I want to play UI by the river (especially in a limped pot where any flush can be out there). UI I'm just looking to do a little bit of pot controlling by simply sizing my bets smaller (a hodgepodge of still getting value from lots while at the same time building towards a monster if I hit my boat and also giving ourselves better odds to call if anyone raises).

With this many callers I probably just check and evaluate the turn. I'm especially concerned about the nitty first caller in EP. We're robust enough to call a bet although we'd hate to have to face a raise. If we boat up on the river we can go for it all then, otherwise let's see what happens.

ETA: I also hate any line that involves us having to fold the turn. I'd much rather perhaps forfeit some value by having it check thru when we're ahead and worse would have called (but keep in mind lots of times someone bets for us) than betting and getting raised and having to fold a potential monster in a huge pot. Our priority here, imo, should be making sure we see that river card, not ekeing out value.

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