Top set on extremely wet board, three ways - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

Top set on extremely wet board, three ways

Post Reply Subscribe

...

05-29-2017 , 08:44 AM

Solomon_Peabody

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 298

1/3, passive fishy table, Sunday afternoon.

VillainA (70yo white male, 30/0, $300) limps in MP.
VillainB (30yo Asian male, 25/15, $300) limps in CO.
VillainC (60yo Asian male, 15/2 weaktight, $180) limps on the button.
SB folds
Hero checks in BB with 8h 8d

Flop ($13): 8c 6c 5d

Hero bets $12 into pot of $13
VillainA raises to $41
VillainB folds
VillainC shoves

What do you do?

Quote

05-29-2017 , 08:51 AM

winadil

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 808

Maybe raise pre but no real reads given
Not sure on the maths but if you presume Va who raises you got the straight I think you are getting the right price to call even thought you know you are behind very high variance mind you, if not fold and move on no point going broke in a limped pot risking stacks when you only invested 12 bucks

Sent from my SM-J320ZN using 2+2 Forums

Quote

05-29-2017 , 10:21 AM

LittlePud

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 300

Weak tight cold 3bet shoves the flop in a limped pot? GTFO without the nuts, IMHO.

Quote

05-29-2017 , 11:25 AM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

Shove.

Not folding top set for 100bb effect., and more likely 60bb, especially since we have outs to the straight.

Quote

05-29-2017 , 12:24 PM

LittlePud

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 300

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchens97

Shove.

Not folding top set for 100bb effect., and more likely 60bb, especially since we have outs to the straight.

It's a very thin and high-variance spot, especially if we get into a three-way all-in. If we give both Vs a range of {66, 55, 97, 74} we're essentially flipping and slightly behind - we'd have 32% equity win each of the Vs having 34%.

I don't believe passive fish are getting it in with anything less than a set on this board, and we block a ton of the two-pair combos that we crush.

If we have outs to the straight, we should probably assume that we only have outs to a chop and that some of those outs will be in Vs hands. I know that we normally don't consider "reverse blockers" to our hand, but I think it's relevant in cases like this.

Quote

05-29-2017 , 02:50 PM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

Quote:

Originally Posted by LittlePud

There's enough chance of draws and two pair to more than shove even with passive fish, particularly the initial raiser. Plus add in the random 5% wtf hands that people show up with and it feels an easy shove.

Quote

05-30-2017 , 01:41 AM

winadil

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 808

Outs for a straight? Runner runner for chop? Maybe 1 or them could have worst than a straight but overall is a very high variance spot

Sent from my SM-J320ZN using 2+2 Forums

Quote

05-30-2017 , 03:10 AM

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

Not folding top set 100bb effective OTF

Quote

05-30-2017 , 10:23 AM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

Quote:

Originally Posted by winadil

Outs for a straight? Runner runner for chop? Maybe 1 or them could have worst than a straight but overall is a very high variance spot

Sent from my SM-J320ZN using 2+2 Forums

No, most of your outs are to a full house

Quote

05-31-2017 , 02:21 AM

#10

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

results?

Quote

05-31-2017 , 03:49 AM

#11

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

lol at considering folding this

Quote

05-31-2017 , 11:17 AM

#12

Redskins 47

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,103

Shove. It's not thin. It's MANDATORY.

Quote

05-31-2017 , 03:16 PM

#13

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,455

Quote:

Originally Posted by winadil

Outs for a straight? Runner runner for chop? Maybe 1 or them could have worst than a straight but overall is a very high variance spot

Sent from my SM-J320ZN using 2+2 Forums

should have been clearer - I meant outs against a straight

Quote

05-31-2017 , 08:02 PM

#14

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

Easy shove.

Quote

05-31-2017 , 08:05 PM

#15

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,493

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody

What do you do?

Count my chip stack.
I might be out of chips, since I don't seem to know how many I have.

Quote

05-31-2017 , 10:39 PM

#16

TheJackhammer

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody

I recently folded top set and was shown bottom two pair, I'm jamming this spot now.

Quote

05-31-2017 , 11:22 PM

#17

Limpfoldjj

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 144

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody

Did you just post their VPIP and PFR live poker? If so I admire the dedication.

The correct answer is probably calling or jamming but I've folded here before. I was very wrong. You just have to close your eyes and call. People just do stupid **** in low stakes games especially when shortstacked.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 01:37 PM

#18

donkatruck

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,911

If Villian C is truly 15/2, his limping range even on the button has a lot more 55,66 in it than 79 or 47. If your 15/2 read is correct, this makes it an easier shove.

His 2% raising range means he could also have 99-JJ here a lot as well.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 02:07 PM

#19

CookbytheBook

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 56

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkatruck

I've seen 15/2s show up with 23s in this preflop spot. Their ranges can go wider and weaker than you would think when they finally get a chance to enter the pot for cheap.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 02:55 PM

#20

donkatruck

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by CookbytheBook

I've seen 15/2s show up with 23s in this preflop spot. Their ranges can go wider and weaker than you would think when they finally get a chance to enter the pot for cheap.

Then he's not truly 15/2 and the read is incorrect. I'm just saying, if somebody is playing top 15% hands only and maybe widening a bit in certain circumstances, 79 is mostly out of his range while 47 is straight out.
He has more 99-JJ, and under sets in his range... again, if we trust wherever that 15/2 read came from.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 03:03 PM

#21

CookbytheBook

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 56

the 15/2 can be a weak/cheap player who gets pushed out of pots when the price goes up. He doesnt really understand where to be aggressive, so he chooses to nearly never be aggressive. This is why they sometimes end up with hands you wouldnt expect for those stats.

hes not playing top 15% of hands, hes trying to jump in the water when it looks calm. 15% of the time it looks calm.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 03:22 PM

#22

Ray Zee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,920

it is a great spot to be in and i love it. worst is you get decent odds to draw out. and many times you are a good favorite or sometimes you have them dead.
anyone who folds here isnt playing poker but playing to not go broke only.

Quote

06-01-2017 , 04:22 PM

#23

thetruewheel

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 362

Insta shove. Even disregarding possible semibluffs from A or C, either or both could have 66, 55. When you factor in the possibility of bluffs this is the easiest jam ever

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...