1/2 club game

V (400) - 30 yo Asian male. Tightish and seems to be postionally aware pre. Haven't seen him make any big moves post. Sitting next to H and chatting a bit including about how he grinned up a bankroll at 1/2. Talks about moves he wants to make in hands but seems a little MUBsy.

H (covers) 35 yo white reg in this game. Down tonight but hasn't gotten out of line. Generally has an aggressive image.

H gets dealt KhKd UTG. Raises to $10, 3 callers including V in the BB.

Didn't love getting 3 callers. Tough to find a raise size in EP at this table. Probably should have gone for a l/rr though there's been some 3-bet squeezing too.

Flop (40) - KJ3ccc. V checks, h bets 35, v thinks for a bit and calls.

On flop, sometimes I'd check top set, but not on a monotone board. About a pot sized bet seems standard.

Turn (110) - 2c. V instantly bets 50, h calls.
Call turn seems standard here. I'm basically getting odds to draw for a boat and may be ahead every so often. Anyone raise turn?

River (210) - 5h. V instantly bets 100. Hero?

You need to either raise more pre or l/rr. Since you mentioned the squeezing dynamic, I vote l/rr.

Flop seems fine. Turn seems fine.

River looks to be a fold - you called a turn bet on a four-flush board and half pot river looks value-y to me. I don't think he's stone bluffing 1/4 of the time. Could even be a Tc that doesn't know what to do and decided to split the difference. IMO this is a pretty easy fold. Next time river your boat ;D

Pre may be the most interesting spot. I generally open $10 in unopened pots, except maybe on the button where I go a bit smaller, but it's hard from EP at crazy tables. When I say there was a lot of squeezing, I mean 3-bet squeezing though, so if it goes $10, call, call, call, then a fair % of the time someone is bumping it up to $50-60 trying to take it down pre. I had hoped that would happen here. Still may like a l/rr better though.

You're not getting pot odds to call the turn.

Set to Boat Odds: 1 card to come = 7/46 = 15% or 5.6:1
Set to Boat Odds: 2 cards to come = 7/46+10/55= 33% or 2:1

Pot odds on Turn = ($110 Pot + $50 V's bet) / $50 price to call = 3.2:1

You're only going to see the river here, so you need 5.6:1 to justify this from an POT odds stanpoint. You need to be confident that that you will get an additional $230 on the river to justify this from an IMPLIED odds standpoint (50x5.6 - $50 =$230), assuming you think he always has the flush OTT.

So, unless you think you can blow him off his flush with a turn check-raise or a big river bet, I think you need to fold this.

Different story if a portion of his turn betting range is a bluff. Howeverr, if he is MUMsy as you say, he's not bluffing.

Fold turn.

I think the math here is wrong in a bunch of ways. On the river I have ten outs, three Js, three 3s, three 2s and 1 K. 46 cards remaining in the deck, so my odds are 21.7% to hit river. Ignoring implied odds he's betting 50 into 110, so pot is offering me 50/210 or 23.8%. I'd consider that basically getting odds to draw to a boat or quads, as I barely need to make up any money on the river to have a good call.

Even if your numbers are right on my odds to improve (and I don't think they are), I believe you're computing the implied odds wrong. If my odds to hit the river were 5.6:1, and I was getting 3.2:1 on my call, I'd need to make up 2.4 when I hit to have a good call. That would mean I have to make 2.4*50, or 120, on the river. That would obviously be much closer, but I definitely don't need to make $230 when I hit because that ignores the money already in the pot.

That's fair. I tend to think it might be better to go for the "squeeze" yourself though by l/rr. Someone might decide you're being cute and go for a 4! or call you down light. But I agree pre is likely the most interesting spot.

Results -
I fold to V's river bet. He said he had a set which seemed unlikely, but who knows.

55 would be amusing.

River seems like a good spot to bluff shove more than anything.

I would overbet the flop HU, 50-75 and continue to barrel when improved to a FH and non 4 flush turns/rivers. in some cases maybe it would stop villain from trying to rob the pot from you which is not a common occurence

A lot of wrong here. Firstly, hitting the set is 10/46 and should actually be 10/45 if we're making the assumption he always has a flush. Secondly, the calculation of how much extra he needs to make on the river should subtract the entire contents of the pot other than his call, i.e. $160, from the (also wrong) 5.6 x $50.

I have no idea why people use pot odds ever, this is how I'd do it at the table: 10/45 = 22 point something percent, that means I need my call of $50 to be around 22 percent of the final pot. $50 is 20% of $250 and 25% of $200, so I'm going to need the final pot to be somewhere around $220. After my call it'll be $210, so don't need much expectation on the river.