2/5 200bb max

Hero(3200) QQ

V1(2500) Very tough but very straight forward regular, probably marginal to decent winner in game. Seen him make moves before as bluffs but never get way out of line or spew or hard tilt.

1 limp to CO bets 20, V1 calls B, SB folds, Hero bets 65 in BB, CO & V1 call.

Flop(200) Q98 Hero bets 95, CO folds V1 calls.
Turn(390) T Hero bets 165, V1 raises to 500, hero calls.
River(1390) 7 Hero checks, V1 bets 500.....

Would greatly appreciate any analysis however mainly concerned with turn/river lines....gracias LLSNL amigos!!

Is villain capable of betting a set of 8's, 9's, 10's, 89s, 910s for value here expecting you to have KK or AA?

Also, raise more pre.

reads /stack size on CO? need to get an idea of V1s initial button defend range


Does this V view a $165 turn bet as strong due to actual dollar amount? or would it look weak to him because it is less than 1/2 pot? Would he ever pounce on perceived weakness?


Your small preflop and flop sizing leaves a lot of QJ in his range, along with JJ, AJ, KsJs and maybe Js9s as far as straights go. He has all the sets in his range preflop, but would he really play any of them this way post?


I make a crying call on the river if I think my opponent can have spade draws and the ability to pounce on perceived weakness. otherwise, with a typical straightforward V, it's a fold.

Don't bet turn. X/c is way better

The flop is bad for your range against good villains you should x/c. Against bad passive stations a cbet is fine

River is a snap fold

I prefer $80 pre and $125 OTF. Your $95 and $165 look weak so when we get raised we start to wonder if it's because he thinks we're not that strong.

But this board nails his BN PFR call range pre way more than it hits ours. I doubt we ever have a J OTT. We'd have to have 3bet JJ pre oop deep and cbet into two players. It's a tough parlay in my books.

I think I prefer c/c or b/f OTT rather than b/c because we don't have a plan for the river other than to pray we fill up or he checks back...and both are small possibilities. Meanwhile he can really put the screws to us OTR.

I think there's a ton of Jacks in his range, and possibly even 76. I would also expect him to bet more OTR with a busted draw. But you are getting a good price at 4:1. If you think he can VB worse, then it's a call even if we hate it.

Btw, what makes him very tough, but only a marginal to decent winner? That shouldn't be the case at all for a very tough player.

Explain how C/C is better on the turn?

Tough spot.

Pre. After a raise and a limper - I'd be more inclined to move closer to 100 on the reraise... if I get 4 bet - I want to be able to fold. Any thoughts on V1 after he smooth-calls twice? Especially wrt Jx? I can only think AJs or JJ.

OTF. A little less than 1/2 pot? Such a drawy board... Seems like you didn't want to over-bloat this deep - but needed to bet out with two opponents. I might have been tempted to bomb it (although that's probably not the most optimal).

OTT. At first blush this looks like a terrible card - but on reflection - TT is almost as likely as JJ. Yes we could add AJs or QJs but then we probably have to add T9ss. However, having said that, his raise looks really strong. Have to call though, with our overdraws.

OTR. hmmm small bet. No way he can ever put you on a hand better than his Jx.. so why so small? Perhaps its value. but 4:1 I think you have to call hoping to see TT or maybe AKss

Preflop bet more:

Flop: bet way more

Turn: check call

River: I don't now I would have check called turn.

I go more pre, more OTF, slow down OTT. River, well it depends what you mean by 'very tough but very straightforward', if you mean he has it when he raises turns and bets rivers in big pots, this is a super easy fold.

I believe he could be these for value absolutely, I also believe he is capable of repping the J on a bricked flush draw, I also believe he is capable of thin betting with a J, knowing I cannot have one in my range the way it was played.

All of these are reasons to check call turn. It'll be much closer harder to bluff you for half of the as played amount.

Many players in my pool play tough and are well educated successful people that show other tendencies such as buy in full and don't top off/play till they lose it, or play short sessions a few nights a week, you can't be a huge winner @ 5-10hrs a week.

But yes, he plays well, knows how to bluff at opportunities and also how to fold big hands.

Yeah I don't think it's out of the question for his range to include 88/99/TT/AKs but seems like they check back river.

Giving a free card on the turn is insane. And isn't he more likely to have sets 2 pair than a turned gut shot if he is solid?

PF- im raising more. 80ish or so.

Flop- Ok. Your 3! was a little small so his range may be a tad wider than a normal 3bet call range. I think its weighted heavily toward pp's 22-JJ, QJ, 9T JT, and possibly KJ, and some mid SC's. Basically hands that can go up in value the more people that are in the pot.

I think this was a small mistake. I'm making a flop bet of around 130 or so.

Turn- God what an awful card....I think I'm gonna c/c here and evaluate river. You may get one street of value from his 2pair combos, but as stated before there's a decent amount of Jx in his range given the action.

River. I'm checking and allowing him to bluff and calling most bets.

Is 500 the max bet there?

Think there's a fair amount of Jx in his range given the tiny 3! of OP, he's OTB,its multiway and they're deep.

echoing some thoughts already in this thread.

your 3b needs to be bigger pre.

flop sizing is too small being out of position on a scary board that hits callers range more than our 3b range.

x/c on turn is better than b/c. he has lots of Jx in his range, perhaps even flopped the straight. when you bet out here u are hoping he makes a call with a worse set or two pair. both those hands will give you 1 street of value more, not 2 streets, on most run outs. you can bet most rivers and receive around the same amount of value for your hand if V checks back. if he bets turn with worse hands you are getting your value regardless while protecting yourself from losing more against his better hands (he will bet spades, two pair, sets, as well as his Jx on the turn). if you fill up on the river u can x/r him hoping that he has a worse boat or just get another bet out of a bluff.

as played the river bet is gross. you bloated the pot and now have to make a 100bb call. honestly if V is as good as you think he is, he is checking back almost all of his sets and two pairs on the river. you are getting around 4:1 and beat only spades and air here. if he is solid and not a maniac he probably doesnt have air. i'm folding the river and kicking myself for b/c turn.

More pre, way more on the flop. Check the turn. Top set became a medium hand with a 4 straight on the board. I'm not sure I could fold the river as played. If you're calling the turn raise, you really should call the river for nearly 4:1 odds. He could have played 88-TT this way or a horrible AA.

I misread the board. Me aculpa

I think I get what you're saying here. You say he's a marginal to decent winner because he only plays 5-10 hours a week and you can't make that much money playing so few hours. So you're talking absolute dollar amounts.

But if he's a tough player who plays well, he should be producing a big hourly rate...like in excess of $50/hr. In my books that's a huge win rate, even if it means he's only winning $500/wk playing 10 hours.

Going by hourly, $50+/hr is a huge winner, not a marginal to decent winner...and that would inform how I would play vs him.

Little larger on flop. $130ish. Get value from draws, sets 2 pair, possibly Top pair.

Just so many turns we don't like. Going to slow action.

Turn, we can't bet fold. So check/calling is best option. He will betting alot of his flop calling range. Turn is great card for him to bet. So our hand equity plays well against his turn betting range.

Not to afraid of him checking back a flush draw and getting free card. As he will probably has extra equity with most his flush draws. So he will be semi-bluff ing very wide.

River, I don't think is that close. Vs villain you describe. Believe it is puke fold.

Why would he be raising those hands on turn? He must think your realley bad. If he is now raising these hands for value.

Those hands are now bluff catchers. Only hands he is raising on turn, are his value hands with a Jack (most likely). Few spade draws possibly, as bluff.

With all his sets and 2 pair. He just wants to get to showdown. He is not looking to play for stacks at this point. Unless, Hero is huge fish always stacking off with 1 pair.