Quote:
Originally Posted by Keys Kid
Please explain your logic that hero is loosing more than 50% of the time? What hands could the Villian have that are beating us. 6X doesn’t seem very probable to me.
It doesn't matter how often we're ahead. It matters how often we're ahead *when he calls*.
If we're ahead 80% of the time, but when he calls he always has a hand that's beating us, we lose money on the bet. Hell, we could be winning 99.9% of the time, but if he only calls with that 0.1% that's beating us, we don't make money on the bet.
If 50%+ of his calls are with a Q or worse, you can bet for value. I very much doubt half of his calls will be that weak.
If V can raise and we'll sometimes either fold to a worse or call better, we need even higher than 50% to make up for that lost EV.
Important note: I see this principle mis-used all the time. While it's an important concept, it applies rigidly ONLY
* OTR
* HU
* IP
There are situations before the river, or multi-way, or OOP where betting is higher EV than checking even if we're only better calls/worse folds.