Villain is loose, I've seen him calling with a wide range of hands pre- and post-flop, but I haven't seen much of his 3 betting pre-flop behaviours. He has some amount of skill, he isn't a fool.
Hero's image is tight.
Hero has KJo.
Hero opens to 8 in the CO, BTN 3 bets to 28. Hero thinks he's made it only 20, so calls the extra 12, but dealer informs me that it's 28, so Hero is committed to putting the extra 8 in.
(Normally Hero would have just folded to the 3 bet of $28 with KJo)
Flop ($59 before rake which is 5% capped at $10) K94 rainbow.
Hero checks, Villain checks.
Turn ($59 before rake) Q rainbow.
Hero checks, Villain bets $55 quite quickly, with $122 behind.
Hero is a bit unhappy about arriving at this spot by accident. I've got myself into a mess and not knowing the best course of action.
So what would people do? Make a tight fold? Check-call and evaluate the river (if so then what do we do on various river cards especially bricks?).
Or should we x/r shove turn with our Top Pair?
Last edited by Garick; 09-23-2020 at 03:52 PM.
Reason: removed results
You're wildly underrepped here. So why the big bet? If he has a set, he should bet smaller to see if he drag a call. I'd shove the turn after the bet and put him to the test. If you lose, you just reload and he learns that he shouldn't try to bluff you in the future.
Why shove turn? What are we hoping we accomplish with a shove? If he has something clowny, he has almost no equity at all and we don’t mind him realizing his equity. If he has what he’s essentially repping (queens, the last two kings), he’s not folding to a jam.
Interesting spot.
If villain was value betting, I would expect him to bet smaller to extract value from you, given your check-check line. However, his check flop and bomb turn indicates a monster that wanted to keep you in, meaning he has a set (4 combos of KK/QQ?)
On the other hand, if villain was bluffing, why not begin bluffing on the flop?
If we call, we're pretty much going to have to call his river shove. We're losing our stack anyway. If he folds, we weren't going to get any more money anyway. He's left with trying to figure out what we had when he folds.
Not going to fold TP to the first bet I see post flop after inviting the stab at the pot. If that's the plan, we should have folded pf to the 3bet.
If villain had AK he probably bets the flop. If he has KQ/JT/set he bets the turn smaller to keep you around with hands worse then top pair. If you call villain will have less then a pot sized bet left. Given the way this played out you can't really fold to villain's remaining stack.
The only question is if it's better to shove now in case villain has a draw on the turn or to call and give villain a chance to bluff river. Without more information about villain's betting patterns I prefer the shove now. It will blow off some bluffs but most of those won't bet river anyways.
Obviously there's guesswork in giving him numbers of combos when he makes his turn bet, but IMO it's reasonable to assume there are about an equal number of hands where we are WA/WB.
I've done some simple calculations with plausible assumptions on combos and the likely action on various rivers. I get EV estimates:
x/shove turn: -$5
x/c turn. Bet rivers that improve us, check (& fold to a shove) rivers that don't: +$10
… Or would you check-call brick rivers?? I don't like that myself.
I like a $60 river bet size if we do improve. To target calls from slightly weaker hands.
Detail of calculations not worth going into here, but if anyone wants to do their own calculations, I'd be interested in the EV answers you get.
