Foxwoods 1/2. The relevant villain (BB) is a woman about 30. We've been together for about two hours. She seems solid, capable of bluffs but she hasn't spazzed out or anything.

I start the hand with about $320. Villain starts the hand with about $220.

Hero is in cutoff with 86hh. Two limps to hero, who decides to raise to 10. I'm effectively the button as the actual button has a stack of about $30 total and is paying more attention to the phone. I raise because I expect to either take down the dead money, or get called and be 3 or 4 ways to the flop with a sneaky good hand. Is a suited one-gapper to weak to be raising the button? Generally, I have a pretty wide button raising range when there have only been limps.

Villain in BB calls, two limpers call. Pot is $41

Flop: 8d 4h 2h. BB checks, limpers check, I bet $30. BB raises to $100.

How to respond?

1/2 players seem to always put the PFR on AK. Given V's $70 raise into a $100 pot, I would range her TPGK+, 99-JJ, but not sets, or two pair. So it comes down to math.

Pot $171, $190 behind. With the possibility of a second pair, trips and a flush winning the pot, that's 14 outs, which is about 50:50.

I shove making her call $120 more.

Preflop is OK though $10 is on the smaller side. Usually I would go $15 here after 2 limpers. This is one of the annoyances of low stakes, making a medium raise often either gets no callers or lots of callers.

On the flop the bet is fine. When you get raised to half of villain's stack it's either fold or shove. You don't want to flat call and then be stuck calling all in on the turn with less equity because your pot odds are too good. Which is better comes down to math, as JayKon noted above. I would give villain a wider range that includes some sets and heart draws both at discounted rates. It largely comes down to how often you think villain folds. Particularly if you think she folds TP better kicker to a shove then shoving is the best option.

I stoved it with a range that included sets and to my surprise, Hero is favored.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

100,980 games 0.001 secs 100,980,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 4h 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.189% 49.91% 00.28% 50400 281.00 { 8h6h }
Hand 1: 49.811% 49.53% 00.28% 50018 281.00 { JJ-77, 44, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o }

Shove. I think you have a fair amount of fold equity in this situation. Much of the deck is going to be unfavorable for you.

Is the 7 on the flop a typo, or what you actually put in? Because I think Hero should be a slight dog against that range if you don’t give Hero any straight outs.

Preflop: Fold.

I like that you are using reads to make a play, but I still don't think raising is a +EV move here for 3 reasons. 1) The Foxwoods 1/2 game is so highly raked that late position moves that carry a small longterm +EV in other games have their profit go down the rake box in this particular game. 2) $10 is not enough to get 2 limpers to fold in most cases. 3) With only $30, if the button plays the hand his only move is to shove once you raise. This is bad news for 86s, and the fact that he's looking at his phone isn't enough to tip the balance for me (especially if he hasn't looked at his cards yet).

Flop: Bet/shove.

The original bet is a little large, but if you can get bets like that called by worse hands then you might as well make those bets.

After the check/raise your hand is roughly a coin flip against your opponent's entire range except for a set, and even then you are still very live. Add in the possibilities that she might fold a hand like 98 or some random hand that she's making a move with and shoving will give you a good return.

Calling with the intention of calling on the turn is okay, but I prefer shoving because 1) if you hit your flush on the turn you may scare away a 1 pair hand with a turn shove, and 2) if your opponent is bluffing she may hit a better hand than yours on the turn whereas shoving on the flop would cause her to fold immediately.

Just my opinion...

Fist pump shove. Lots of equity to gobble up and if she has a lol raise fold even better

Result:

That’s a hand I expect a fish to fold even with half their stack in already

It was a typo and Hero is a slight dog, good eye.

Despite the posted results, I still think the shove was the best play.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.001 secs 72,270,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 4h 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.285% 45.39% 01.89% 32805 1368.00 { 8h6h }
Hand 1: 52.715% 50.82% 01.89% 36729 1368.00 { JJ-88, 44, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o }

You were the favorite. Well played.

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=8d+...+6h%0D%0A9c+8c

First, that's results-orientated thinking. Second, you assumed no heart. Third, no matter whose numbers, it was so close to a coin flip, it doesn't make much difference with the existing pot before the decision point. And forth, you ignored the FE from Hero's shove.

Still, I agree that Hero played it well. Though, I suppose those that said fold pre have a partial point.

Yeah, if people are calling Hero’s preflop raise with a range that is anywhere close to what JayKon gave Villain in that sim, we need to dump this hand preflop. We can find better hands to exploit these players with.

I think that if villains have a wide pre-flop calling range, our response should be to widen our button pre-flop raising range as well. With the advantage of position, we want to play as many raised flops as possible, don't we?

First, you ignored that I mentioned almost all those strategic considerations in my original reply. Second, his opponent is unlikely to have 1 as unsuited connectors are likely out of her calling range whereas suited connectors are in it. Third, I was being nice to the guy and giving encouragement for playing the hand well. The fact that he was ahead is not necessarily the reason why he played it well. Fourth, the word "fourth" has a "u" in it. When talking down to someone on the internet at least get your spelling right.

Just my opinion...

Next question, what do we think about villain's play?

Defending her blind with 98 is fine.

But what was she doing check-raising with TPWK?

I have all the overpairs and sets in my range. She's basically flipping with any other hand I would possibly shove. By betting half her stack, she's pot committing herself to a shove from me. And she's way behind my range.

With an effective stack of 110 blinds you are imo too shallow to make isolating preflop raises. If you were both sitting on $600+ that would be a different story. If the cards came the same with those stacks now you very well could use position, reads, and scare cards to push her off flopped top pair... EDIT: Also, this is a hypothetical argument as this isn't an isolating raise because there are other players in the pot. Here you are just building a big pot with an iffy hand.

Additionally, I still don't think that's a viable strategy here given Foxwoods's enormous rake at 1/2, but at 2/5 or a time charge game isolating 3bets are something to think about. Just make sure the stacks are deep enough that opponents don't feel pot committed when they hit something.

Just my opinion...

As to her play.

Preflop she could really justify raising, calling, or folding depending on her reads. On the flop, by jamming it up she's basically turning her hand into a bluff. If she thinks you're sure to fold an overpair then I guess it's not a bad play. If her read is that you'll hang on to an overpair then she's lighting money on fire.

Just my opinion...