Which makes sense against all the callers.

The only problem is we're shoving into a guy who is playing tight enough to have just folded top set and has now decided he wants to play for more chips against eleventeen other players on this flop.

Gweirdspot,imoG

This is exactly what I was thinking in real time.

I'd call and evaluate on the turn. If villain is folding top set, he isn't x/r here with a pair. It's sets+ from him the majority of the time. With players to act behind, you can get just as much value from calling as you can from jamming without having to commit your entire stack with top pair and a combo draw.

The problem with calling is that you're setting yourself up for a bad RIO situation. You price the other callers in with hands that have you dominated if you hit one of your draws.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: QJ9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QdTd	21.73%	111,893	46,529
kxTx,Jx9x,AdKd,JJ,99,Ad8d,Tx8x	19.62%	91,272	60,110
kxTx,Jx9x,AdKd,JJ,99,Ad8d,Tx8x	19.57%	91,142	59,722
kxTx,Jx9x,AdKd,JJ,99,Ad8d,Tx8x	19.57%	91,096	59,834
kxTx,Jx9x,AdKd,JJ,99,Ad8d,Tx8x	19.51%	90,734	59,750

The problem I see is that everybody is using their ranges against a HU opponent. We have 4 other players in the hand that have already showed interest. Using the range above against multiple opponents, we have far less equity than we would initially think.

I'm pretty damn sure that if one of the short stacks got here with AdXd, they aren't folding to a shove. Hell, even AcTc might take a stab at this with thought of triple or quadrupling up with the nut straight and BDFD.

There are so many dirty outs on this board, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one of your nut outs is in someone else's hand and you are left with 1 nut out and chop outs in the main or side pot.

Not saying everyone else in the hand has this range, just that against multiple opponents, we don't have at worst 42% equity. By all means, if you aren't folding, shove away and hope like hell some of the shorties fold their equity which should benefit hero the most.

Nobody talked about preflop, but suited 2 gappers with a broadway card are pretty much a fold. Table dymanics... blah blah blah for this very reason. Looks like we have a great hand, when in reality, it may have 20% equity.

I fold and kick myself in the nuts for not folding preflop.

Nobody talked about preflop cuz there is no universe we should ever be folding QTs from the CO facing just a limper and 200 BB’s effective.

In my universe, stacks are a lot deeper and it's a fold. When you get 4 callers and a check raise with these stacks, it is a fold.

Edit: I did say suited broadway 2 gappers. My bad. But QT is the nut low of broadway 1 gappers. I would rather raise with 97s or 86s than QTs.

Just for fun....

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

13,338 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJ9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QdTd	3.37%	162	864
KxTx	36.40%	4,540	918
JJ	33.30%	4,442	0
AdKd	24.76%	3,276	54
Tx8d	2.16%	0	864

I guess that is something to worry about. I wonder if they know that Adxd has roughly the right odds to stack off.

Not all that boned up on short stack play, but if I was one of the ~$300 stacks with AdXd and Hero flatted, I would shove it in. If villain shoves over the top, now what does Hero do? You just put yourself in another bad spot.

Best case scenario is 1st shortie shoves, everybody else folds and we have an easy call against 1 hand. Wishful thinking in my book.

Well cowboy cold, I must be a LAG player then because I’m never folding preflop on the CO with QT suited.

Also in my games these guys are calling bottom pair, middle pair, low flush draws, a bare 10 when they just call 35. When one person calls the 35 the others come in with even worse junk. Some might be calling with an 8 or a K to hit a gut shot. It’s really bad. TBH I was hardly worried about these other villains at all at least when it came to the idea of jamming. Calling obviously is a different story as my outs are no longer as clean facing multiple villains.

Fair points, and I am not at the table with the reads you have. I try to use concepts and not specific hands when I read this forum. All I was trying to point out is that you may not have as much equity in this hand against multiple opponents as you think. Is it as bad as ~4% no, but it probably isn't as good as ~42% plus. It lies somewhere in the middle, and in game, that is the fun of trying to figure it out.

Let's not get caught up on whether or not to fold QTs preflop. Not really the point of this thread.

There are 47 cards we don't know about. SB, BB and button have 6 cards between them so I guess they have 6 chances out of 47 to have the A (6/47 = 13%).

Of the 13% of the time that one of those players has the A, he is going to have a second diamond 8/46 = 17.4% of the time. So... it would seem that SB, BB or the button could consider calling with the nut flush draw (6/47)×(8/46)=2.2% of the time.

I'm not sure its worth worrying too much about being up against AdXd.

OK. Do the math on kTx and sets....

The point about the other three players is a good one I had neglected to consider initially. Three of them called for $35, which at a minimum probably indicates some of the diamonds are out there, as well as probably one or two of the straight outs.

I’m now thinking more just call and see what the turn brings.

There are 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 99 and 12 remaining combos of KT but you're missing the point.

If we end up against both KT and a set, we are far from crushed.

Our pot odds would be something like 35% 550/(215+250+550+550) and our equity would be around the same:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,709 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJ9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QdTd	35.36%	882	156
KcTc	36.03%	900	156
99	28.61%	771	12

Making the play break-even.

We are only in major trouble if villains commit with both a straight and a higher flush draw. And I believe that UTG+1's range has to be wider than just KT.

Based on what you said above, you have 45% total equity [38+7] which you don't. KT has 57.727% & you have 42.273%, which totals 100%.
6.9697% of the time you chop, so you share that chop equity.

So, you win 42.293 - [6.9697/2] = 38.9445%
Your tie equity is 3.3485%, as V gets the other 1/2 of it.

Doesn't make any difference if your shove folds out the other players & V calls with KT. The pot is $315 before you shove [minus rake which I understand is gross in CA] & you have $550 behind.

So pot would be [if others fold] $75 pre + [$35*4] + $100 V's c/r + your [$65 call & $485 shove] + V's $485 call = $1350 & the $550 you're putting in the pot, after V's c/r is 40.74% of an unraked pot & before the tip.

So, your win equity is not enough to warrant a call. Your overlay is really the <7% of the time that you tie to get your $50 bucks back and 50% of the dead money after that gross CA rake.

So, if you knew V had KT & you knew the other 3 would fold, it's a shove. That is, if chasing the thinnest of margins is what brings you to the poker tables.

However, you first have to get the other 3 to fold, some who have a short stack. The more players that call your all-in, the more your money overlay drops.

I think V could very well have the nut flush draw, or a set/2 pr, because his raise is not a size that is trying to blow people out of the pot; probably because he doesn't think he can get 4 to fold to his all-in & is deciding to see if a non-diamond comes ott b4 shoving with his set of 9s. If you just call there & the other 2 call, he may be thinking that the 2 who act in front of him will check most turns & then he can check [if need be] forcing you to make a decision as to whether to bet again & possibly face another c/r.

When he raises the flop, say with a set of 9s, he may be counting on 1 of the 2 players who act in front of him to be on the flush draw and that they will check a turn, with intention of c/r rather than bet & turn their hand face-up. V can then check & try to catch a full-house.

I've never played in CA, but I hear the games are often all-in otf or turn. Crazy games & gross rakes is all I know about CA poker.

This is probably what I'm doing. Considering the other players, I think it's a pretty rare bird that folds the NFD here if we shove. And that bird is almost never spotted in California. Maybe they fold K high flush draw, I think they mostly don't.

So, let's try to keep all the worse hands in. $65 more gives them a chance to triple up or more. Many will call with some pretty weak holdings. We'll flip the main V. for their money.

Calling gives us a chance to make another decision on the turn.

QTs is an objectively better hand than the two you listed. Preferring 86s to QTs is nonsense.

+1

I think preflop is standard here against an EP limp.

Literally LOL over here at the idea of folding QTs in the CO with one limper in front. If you want to overlimp it, fine, whatever, but then your iso range is insanely easy to play against. This is a raise pre AINEC.

Yeah, I'm pretty nitty preflop, but in CO against one limper I'm never considering folding unless Button (and to some extents SB/BB) is really good and aggressive and a real pain to play against. I could get behind an overlimp, especially with smaller stacks where we're not in love with creating a smaller SPR, but with deeper stacks I'm fine with attempting to isolate (unless everyone behind is very loose and there is little chance of isolating, like what ended up happening here although I'm guessing that was unexpected).

I don't think a flop fold is outrageous as most think, although depends on how loosely people are calling preflop and on the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Obviously not arguing about which hand is a better starting hand. Just that as stacks get deeper, QTs' RIO is much higher than 86s.

For example: If the flop comes QJT and your villain(s) start jamming money in the pot, how comfortable are you stacking off with 2 pair?

Villain's bet/calling/3!/calling ranges have a lot more Ax/broadway/JJ/TT cards in them. We can assign whatever range we want to justify a call, but I'm not shoveling in 200+ bigs to find out if I'm possibly drawing to 4 outs.

With 86s and the flop comes 876, we can be more comfortable getting to showdown because villain(s) are much more likely to be over playing an over pair.

Also, if the front door flush comes in, it is much harder to lay down a Q high flush vs. an 8 high flush. And I think it is easier to semi-bluff with a combo draw with lower cards. Sets are more likely in our range there and we can get folds vs. a combo draw with cards that also hit our V's calling range.

I know from reading your posts, you play a fairly high variance style. And that probably works well at <200 bigs. The starting stacks here are a bit awkward, so I could go either way. But when we raise pre and get 4 callers and a bet, calls and C/R from the deeper stack on the flop, I still think it is a fold. In game, I might flat and try to hit one of my nut outs, but if I don't I'm done with the hand.

Ok feel like there was a lot of good discussion here and seems like it was pretty close either way. I’m glad that my descion seemed to be in line with a lot of players here but was hard to know for sure because of the results.

Results: Hero shoves all in for the remainder of his stack. Other callers all fold and main Villian snap calls with the nuts K 10 and board bricks out.

Considering we are playing against ranges and not soul reading players for specific hands I feel like it was a good play and would consider doing something similar in the future. Thanks for the all the feedback.

+1

Sick spot