Prehand Descriptions
Just sat down about an orbit ago and have seen villain limp pre and fold on the flop once.

$1/3 NL (10 handed)
UTG ($300)
EP ($130)
EP+1($250)
MP ($350)
MP+1 ($400)
MP+2 ($400)
CO V1($350)
Button ($300)
SB ($200)
BB Hero ($300)

Hero is dealt AT

6 folds, V1 raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $9

Flop ($25) J,8,2
Hero checks, V1 checks.

Turn ($25) A

Hero bets $17, Villain calls $17

River ($59): 6

Hero checks, Villain shoves all in ($321)

Hero ??

Analysis
Called pre flop, could have 3 bet, but didn't have history with villain and this is a decent hand to pick up in the big blind. I bet for value on the turn figuring I had best hand the way the action has gone thus far. River gets spazzy and I'm wondering what he's betting for value like this.. Suited spade King broadways? AJ? To me it seems like he could be shoving a lot of air as well as turning decent pairs into a bluf like 9s, QQ, TT, or shoving a missed straight.

This is not enough information to be able to conclude this...

The vast majority of the player pool would never do this with air ever. Most bets are exactly what they appear to be.

Fold now, but also go back in time and fold pre. Massive RIO, OOP. He only played one hand and limped - ATo plays terribly against his raising range.

Don't just look at your own cards. Consider how they will play against your opponents range. You didn't range him at all until the river.

Without any totally spot on read here this has got to be a fold (and given you just sat down and all you've seen from this guy is him limp-fold once, I can't imagine you have much of a read on him).

I see NO reason at all he would be turning 8x, 99, QQ or TT into a bluff like this by shoving for 5x pot. In general I think 5x overbet shoves from people at low stakes nl live games will not be bluffs very often. I'd fold instantly and feel pretty good about it.

ATo is dog-s--- vs a raise in llsnl.

If Villain hits a 5-high flush, he doesn't worry about an overflush, he think OMFGIHaveAFrush!!!!!!!! Nutblocker means nothing. Fold river, or call and pray you ran into the 10% spew here (-ev obv).

Good advice.

You're only getting ~1.2:1 on the call (looks like stack sizes are approximate and you didn't subtract rake- if there is one) which means you need about 45% equity. Even if you think he's bluffing right now, do you really think he's bluffing 45% of the time here? because he needs to be before this call is even close.

Having been at the table for about an orbit you can't possibly know very much about an opponent who has only been in one pot and didn't do much. So, this is a fold pre. Against an average opponent you are going to struggle to get value when you hit your A, and probably end up paying off a fair bit when you make the second best hand OOP. Against a decent or good opponent it could get even uglier. ATo is a classic trap hand in this situation. Frankly, I'd rather defend here with 53s.

Also, I do think the fact that you hold the As here is more interesting than other posters have let on to. But rather than use it as fuel for calling here, just use the information to help build your read of villain. The fact that he's willing to make a massive overship OTR with less than the nuts probably will be important information later on.

I suspect that based on this hand seemingly being an easy decision, coupled with OP's wording in his post, that OP folded here and got shown some total air hand and is second-guessing himself.

He doesn't need to. This is a very easy, very quick fold. He shoved several times the pot, he's an unknown, he can have reached later streets with any hand (since the flop was checked), and all it takes to beat you is TPGK. We lose to flushes, two pairs, bigger Aces (easily possible given that he's the preflop raiser).

All we beat here is pure air, which he doesn't have often enough to justify calling this huge a shove into this small a pot. Fold.

^ This is what happened. Results:

Also, I'm not sure I agree with the notion that it's bad calling the late position pre flop raise with ATo. ATo is actually a favorite against a 20% range and I figure most average people raise at least 20% in late position.

He's going to have what he had very, very infrequently.

The problem with the ATo is that you have poor reverse implied odds and you're out of position.

In my experience, ATo is one of the rarest playable hands to win a sizable pot with. you're almost never going to play a huge pot against a hand that's behind and have your hand hold unless you gin the flop, i.e., AAT, TTx, etc.

grunch:

Fold pre.

Fold river.