1/3 Very loose table pre, weak post. Villain is in MP, a bad reg who calls to much but is known to bluff at times. 300eff.

UTG straddle, several people limp, I limp J8 on BTN, blinds call.

Flop (36): 673ss

Checks around

Turn (36): 8o

Checks to villain who bets 30, folds to hero, hero... ??

I think I should just fold honestly; I called though.

River (96): 8sss

Villain bets 56. Hero...???

I think this is again a fold.

Thoughts? Arguments?

Snap-fold the turn. There are at least three people left to act

Fold turn. AP, calling river tho.

You're losing to a lot of hands here and in a limped pot, all those combos exists especially in a loose/passive/weak table in a limped pot. I expect villain to show up on the river with a straight/flush/8 with a better kicker here a lot of the time with the line he took. Even though the absolute strength of our hand is pretty strong on the river, I'm probably folding turn because there aren't very many good rivers for us and there's plenty of people to act behind us.

Why calling river if you'd fold turn? He's probably not betting 67; he doesn't even really have 67 in his range after the flop check. His range on the turn is still ahead on the river.

And would you fold A8 on the turn as well? I assume yes, but curious anyway.

Few things:

- OTR there's not a crowd of other people in the hand.

- If I call OTT I have to potentially face a river bet as well, and my hand is unlikely to improve and may even be drawing dead. Calling OTR I don't have to worry about facing future bets.

- If he has something like a 97 then calling on turn I have to fade a bunch of outs from that, which lowers overall equity. River I have successfully faded that stuff. I don't buy that he has a FD, so the flush hitting doesn't bother me.

- Originally I felt that him continuing to bet through the flush was a little suspicious (like maybe means he has a bluff) but on reflection he probably continues to bet straights and trip eights, so maybe this is nothing.

A8 OTT would be a lot closer, I think it's a call but don't hate a fold.

AP I want to jam. Fold turn.

Hands like this are why most people should not be playing J8s. When someone says "maybe you can play J8s in position if you play well post flop"...this is what they are referring to and this is not played well post flop. Fold turn.

I'm ok with preflop, just attempting to get into a pot for cheap against a weak field on the Button with a very speculative hand.

Flop is obvious (shouldn't have any FE against eleventeen players plus we have hardly any hand equity).

I fold the turn. Yeah, he could be betting junk, but maybe not. The fact is he is betting into eleventeen opponents (sounds like there are still at least one, maybe more, behind him?), could have easily slowplayed a monster on the flop (cuz that is what bad players do), and we didn't play this hand to hit TPmehKnodraw on a board where a lot better hands exist. We also have others left to react in EP.

River is trickier. Is he really bluffing 5x? The flush draw got there. There aren't a heckuva lotta worse 8x (98 is basically the only realistic one). Is he turning showdownable hands like 7x into a bluff? It's almost looking like a fold here too, unless he can be really bluffy / ******ed betty.

GcluelessNLnoobG

+1

If you're not folding turn, then fold preflop (as it's unlikely you're going to make this hand profitable).

ETA: Also, the more I play, the more I realize that speculative hands aren't nearly as profitable as we might think they are. Position, poor opponents, and good postflop play will *probably* make them profitable. But if we simply folded them preflop it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. One of the main reasons we play them in the end might end up being for pure meta-game, so that opponents can't simply put us on TT+/AK/AQs.

GimoG

Exactly. I track these speculative hands specifically so I know Im profitable with them but its not a ton of money per hand, but as long as I can stay above break even with them, playing them makes me look looser than I really am and people cant put me on a hand easily.

Do you lump them all into one category as "speculative" hands (or perhaps weak speculative vs strong speculative hands vs setmining vs etc.)? Otherwise, I'd guess it's going to take you a ****load of lifetimes to have any reasonable data/hand (I mean, just one big pot either may make you a lifetime winner vs loser for a particular speculative hand).

GmaybetalktoAvaabouthandtracking,Idon'tthinkhe'sgo tanythingelseonhisplateG

Lumped together. Basically suited connectors and gappers. J9s and lower.

Makes sense.

I did that hand tracking thing for about 2 months as per M's homework thread a couple of years ago, and I only tracked pots where I won/lost $100+. I found it tough (exhausting) to maintain the data tracking (which is why I eventually gave it up). Good for you if you can keep it up.

Gthat'swhatshesaidG