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Old 08-20-2018, 08:25 AM   #1
MikeStarr
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Top pair and gutshot

Here's a general question with a specific real hand example from yesterday...

EP ($350) limps.
MP ($210) random player Ive never seen before raises $15
Hero ($900) calls SB JcTc
BB ($400) calls

Flop ($60) Td8h7h. Checked to MP who bets $15.

General question....in a spot like this where the preflop raiser makes a weak Cbet and you have TP and a gutshot do prefer to call getting good odds, or raise and try to win the hand with aggression?...and possibly making the best hand along the way? I have zero reads on the raiser other than the fact that I know everyone in this room and have never seen him before and he bought in for the the min ($200).
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:57 AM   #2
ChrisV
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

You don't say whether EP calls or folds pre.

I think weak cbets are a weird enough line that it depends on the player and it's hard to give a general answer. That said, typically with top pair + draw hands I don't want to be raising because those hands play better against weak ranges than strong ranges. The classic example is top pair + flush draw, where if you keep ranges wide, you'll bring along a bunch of hands that pretty much can't win, whereas if you get aggressive and narrow your opponent's range to like sets and overpairs, then you've turned your hand into just a draw, the top pair doesn't really matter anymore. There's a similar thing at work here in a more limited way. If you raise, you're turning your hand into a draw and neglecting the value of the top pair.
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Old 08-20-2018, 10:07 AM   #3
MikeStarr
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

EP called the raise, which is why the pot is $60 on the flop.

Here's the way I see it. Lets ignore the other guys for now and concentrate on me and the raiser.

1) If I play aggro and raise, he may fold a better hand (QT, KT). I not sure how weak tight this guy may be or if he ever folds TP short stacked but a check raise on this flop looks like hes beaten.

2) I may have the best hand already.

3) If he has an overpair and shoves, Im getting the correct price to call (after I already check raised). I will have about 33% equity.

4) If I just call, I feel like Im just playing a gutshot a lot of the time. I'm not sure I want to pair the J if I dont raise and I allow one of the other 2 guys to call. Of course they may call a check raise to $75 anyway if they have an 8.

So check raising is kind of my default play in a situation like this but Im not sure if its a leak or not.
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Old 08-20-2018, 10:23 AM   #4
ChrisV
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

That is some weird reasoning, let me unpack.

1) It's always the case with TPWK that by raising you might get someone to fold a better TP, yet we don't normally raise with TPWK because that's a small-percentage chance. I don't think the fact that they've made a small cbet changes the calculation there.

2) Again, this applies any time we have TPWK but we don't normally raise.

3) That you're pot committed if you raise doesn't make raising better.

4) If you're only playing a gutshot, then the only way raising can improve matters is by getting them to fold a better hand, which as already discussed isn't generally the right path with a mediocre made hand.

By the way, I would have led this hand, because we can't rely on the PFR to cbet on this board, worse hands can call, and I don't really want it checking around. The cbet changes the calculation because more salient than the small sizing is that they chose to bet when they could have checked and seen a turn card. All signs just point to them being clueless. They probably don't realise how small a bet $15 is here.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:20 AM   #5
Playbig2000
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Call. You have SDV, getting good odds, and would hate it if he re-raises. (fwiw I'm not donking out otf).
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:23 AM   #6
MikeStarr
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
That is some weird reasoning, let me unpack.

1) It's always the case with TPWK that by raising you might get someone to fold a better TP, yet we don't normally raise with TPWK because that's a small-percentage chance. I don't think the fact that they've made a small cbet changes the calculation there.

2) Again, this applies any time we have TPWK but we don't normally raise.

3) That you're pot committed if you raise doesn't make raising better.

4) If you're only playing a gutshot, then the only way raising can improve matters is by getting them to fold a better hand, which as already discussed isn't generally the right path with a mediocre made hand.

By the way, I would have led this hand, because we can't rely on the PFR to cbet on this board, worse hands can call, and I don't really want it checking around. The cbet changes the calculation because more salient than the small sizing is that they chose to bet when they could have checked and seen a turn card. All signs just point to them being clueless. They probably don't realise how small a bet $15 is here.
This not meant for you specifically, but remember this when you have an overpair or TP and get raised on just about any flop. Without a lock solid read, I almost always fold. Most 2+2ers think that's terrible. I could link to any number of applicable threads.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:25 AM   #7
shorn7
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
That is some weird reasoning, let me unpack.

1) It's always the case with TPWK that by raising you might get someone to fold a better TP, yet we don't normally raise with TPWK because that's a small-percentage chance. I don't think the fact that they've made a small cbet changes the calculation there.

2) Again, this applies any time we have TPWK but we don't normally raise.

3) That you're pot committed if you raise doesn't make raising better.

4) If you're only playing a gutshot, then the only way raising can improve matters is by getting them to fold a better hand, which as already discussed isn't generally the right path with a mediocre made hand.

By the way, I would have led this hand, because we can't rely on the PFR to cbet on this board, worse hands can call, and I don't really want it checking around. The cbet changes the calculation because more salient than the small sizing is that they chose to bet when they could have checked and seen a turn card. All signs just point to them being clueless. They probably don't realise how small a bet $15 is here.
Me too. Looks like a good board to donk because we don't really fear a raise as we have decent equity and blockers for others to the str8.

As to your Q though, I think it really depends on villain and stack sizes. Vs an unknown/short, I think the default play is to flat as with short stacks, our SB fold equity is smaller. Vs a nit or someone with a deeper stack, I like a CR here to build the pot up and take the lead as with deeper stacks, we have more maneuverability versus an overpair on a very wet board.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:30 AM   #8
mdelore
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

I think we have better candidates to raise with, like pair + oesd, naked nfd type stuff with more/better outs when behind and unlikely to currently have the best hand.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:56 AM   #9
browni3141
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

This is the type of hand you want to take to showdown relatively cheaply. Raising wastes the value of the hand. It is better to raise a bit more polarized.
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Old 08-20-2018, 08:15 PM   #10
crsseyed
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Grunge: You don't say if 1/3 or 2/5. Looks like 1/3 from stack sizes but I know you play mostly 2/5....
It would be different stacking off 350-400 at 1/3 than 2/5 of course

This is a nice example problem. Here it actually depends on the other 2 villains. If heads up I donk here and play aggressively. Multihanded 1/3=more aggressive, 2/5 less aggressive

Multihanded for PFR this bet size means "i have the nuts" (unlikely) or "Ugly flop, I want to pot control til I see how others react".
As played w/3 villains and us OOP we have to just call here(unless we know other 2 villains so well that we have reads on what their checking means) 2 other villains more likely connected with this flop than PFR..

I guess multihanded I still donk this flop, half-pot. If we're in trouble with any villain smashing this flop we want to know early, not late. This is a problem where we want as much info from villains as possible and checking flop gives us very little. If checked thru we still know ~nothing about other 2 villains holdings; they could easily have monsters and were waiting to c/r PFR. And also with checking this flop, what do we do if PFR makes a standard cbet of ~30-45? We're just in a deeper position (financially) with 2 unknowns yet to act......
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:42 PM   #11
MikeStarr
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Its 2/5.

Im fine with leading the flop, but the question is as played, do we think a check raise or a call is better. I think Im leaning towards calling being better although I think it complicates things when there's a FD on the flop and there also 2 other guys in the hand.
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:51 PM   #12
megamen70
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

This is a tough spot but I feel like I prefer a raise against 1/4 pot bet. I'm raising here because a 1/4 pot bet screams weakness from an unkown player and is unlikely to be an overpair or a good T. Furthermore if we just flat we give everyone behind us great odds to flat with almost any draw and have no idea how to proceed on a lot of turns.

This raise clarifies the hand so much better and just allows us to proceed so much better on turns getting it heads up with the opener. this board is very draw heavy and I also think villains are likely to chase hands like 98 or T9 or hearts that we are ahead of here.
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Old 08-20-2018, 11:14 PM   #13
Minatorr
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Pre is meh but vs a small raise & bad players it should be ok.

Flop i'd start by checking and looking for a cheap SD, AP vs a 1/4 bet I'm raising. Vs normal bet I'd rather flat and see a turn.
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Old 08-21-2018, 07:29 AM   #14
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Re: Top pair and gutshot

Vs. an unknown PFR/cbettor with a 42 bbs stack, I'd call to keep the pot small. Would be nasty to face a 3-b with dirty outs.
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