Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
That is some weird reasoning, let me unpack.
1) It's always the case with TPWK that by raising you might get someone to fold a better TP, yet we don't normally raise with TPWK because that's a small-percentage chance. I don't think the fact that they've made a small cbet changes the calculation there.
2) Again, this applies any time we have TPWK but we don't normally raise.
3) That you're pot committed if you raise doesn't make raising better.
4) If you're only playing a gutshot, then the only way raising can improve matters is by getting them to fold a better hand, which as already discussed isn't generally the right path with a mediocre made hand.
By the way, I would have led this hand, because we can't rely on the PFR to cbet on this board, worse hands can call, and I don't really want it checking around. The cbet changes the calculation because more salient than the small sizing is that they chose to bet when they could have checked and seen a turn card. All signs just point to them being clueless. They probably don't realise how small a bet $15 is here.
Me too. Looks like a good board to donk because we don't really fear a raise as we have decent equity and blockers for others to the str8.
As to your Q though, I think it really depends on villain and stack sizes. Vs an unknown/short, I think the default play is to flat as with short stacks, our SB fold equity is smaller. Vs a nit or someone with a deeper stack, I like a CR here to build the pot up and take the lead as with deeper stacks, we have more maneuverability versus an overpair on a very wet board.