V - LAG seen him three barrel bluff with half his stack with AK couple of hands before.
He also raises 7-10BB with any 2 face cards and is aggro post flop.

Hero - TAG but has not been involved in many hands since sitting down so i doubt it is relevant to V in this hand

1/2 NL
V approx $300 in the CO
Hero approx $300 on the BTN

preflop

2 limpers until it gets to V who raises to $15
Hero looks down at A Q was planning to raise but decides to call to conceal strength Vs this aggro V
The 2 limpers also call

flop ($62) AK7
2 early callers check and V raises to $50
Hero calls and two early positions fold.....i think he is betting here with all Ax hands + bluffs (he has c-bet into multiple opponents before on a complete miss)

turn ($162) 4
V pushes all in for around $235

Hero?????????????

Tough spot.

With that V description i would find it hard to fold, but on the other hand if he is capable of using his image wisely, this can be his spot to get called by exactly what you have.

My nitty side tells me to fold and "wait for a better spot".

I am really not sure how good of a hand to post this is, because it seems so dependant on reads and table dynamics. There are situations where somebody is steaming so hard after being bluff caught that he is just looking for a way pout. Is this one of them? I dont know.

You are getting really bad pot odds and are in a classic wawb spot.

You are playing against a LAG that clearly likes to gamble.

Accept the variance and this is an easy call imo.

Just 3 bet preflop. You should be 3 betting this player very frequently, so you should do it with good hands too.

It's pretty bad to be like "I want to conceal the strength of my hand so villain tries to bluff me" and then be like, "villain made a big bet! halp!" If you didn't think a big calldown on an A high board would be profitable, then you should have played the hand differently preflop.

That said, you should fold IMO. Villain likely isn't as much of a tard as you understand him to be. On this board texture with 4 people seeing the flop, I think villain will be underbluffing the turn (re your reads: firing 3 barrels with AK is such a standard play that you shouldn't assume villain is lighting his stack on fire every time he enters a pot. If anything, the fact that he had AK shows that he was choosing good bluffing hands instead of just trying to win every pot.), and even if we add all combos of AJ to his range, we're still not getting good enough odds to call an overbet.

Well played.

LLSNL is about exploiting your opponents tendencies. Against someone that stacks off light, you don't exploit by moving him off his hand or inhibiting future action with a raise. You exploit by encouraging him to bluff even more (and then calling, LDO).

V bets the flop. Excellent! Plan is working and you correctly call.

Now V shows you why playing LAGs sometimes sucks. He may very well have you here.

But you have to call. There's too much chance he's bluffing or overplaying a worse hand than yours. You've (correctly) feigned a lack of strength. Hopefully, he's baying "I smell blood!" and going for the throat, imagining all the moderate hands you're going to fold so that he can rub his hands in glee as he stacks your chips.

Playing LAGs, you're going to have to gamble. If you raise pre or on the flop against this guy, you're giving him an information advantage. He can mess around with smaller bets and know roughly where you stand based on your actions.

If you had a weak hand, you could consider bluff raising the flop, one and done. But with this much strength against his weak range, call it off.

Stick to your plan. You have a read on villain, you took a specific pre-flop line to take advantage of that read, and you got exactly the board texture/action you were looking for. You can't fold now.

What "tendencies" do you speak of? Raising pre in the CO with any two face cards is standard TAG play (though villain's sizing is a bit big) and firing a 3 barrel bluff with AK is not overly aggro in many cases (like if villain raised in EP and the board came low). Also note that villain did not stack off when he had AK, and OP didn't say whether that hand occurred in a multiway pot.

Based on the info in the OP, we have no reason to believe that villain has a penchant for punting. I would be described as a "LAG" player and the worst I would have in villain's spot is JsTs or 7s5s, and there just aren't enough combos of those sorts of hands to make up for the times hero is drawing dead or to 3 outs.

I treat "LAG seen him three barrel bluff with half his stack with AK couple of hands before.
He also raises 7-10BB with any 2 face cards and is aggro post flop." as being a read and some examples to support it, rather than a read based exactly and only on those examples."

So the tendencies to which I refer are raising with a wide range, being aggressive postflop, including being willing to run big bluffs and triple barrel (which is very unusual at LLSNL IME).

I think he has a wide, weak range at most points in the hands he plays, but that he's making betting errors rather than folding errors with those hands.

I think we gotta call. I don't like it, but this sounds like the kind of player who would fire with a hand like QJ, JT spades to get hands like QQ to fold. He could also realize his image and be value betting with AJ or AT hoping you won't fold A-rag suited. Maybe this is too optimistic.

If we know this player doesn't bluff OOP we can make an easier fold.

V's betsizing just screams that he is tilting and is likely weak in this spot. If he flopped a set of Aces or Kings, or even AK, his 50 dollar turn bet would seem rather large given that there are no draws out there and the ace can be a scare card for opponents who called him with lower pocket pairs. I think he would bet around 35 to give opponents great odds to call. He would also check a substantial percentage of the time just to disguise the strength of his hand.

The turn overbet just screams weakness. Maybe he has the ace of spades and picked up a flush draw after the turn. He could be overplaying Ax here just looking to use his image to pick up a big pot. Either way, his behavior and player profile just weighs so much more heavily to weak hands or air rather than a monster.

I think the only hand that V could play this way that beats us is A7 or an A4 that sucked out on us. If that is the case, we still aren't in that bad of shape if we call, since we could spike any Q or board pair gives us the winning hand.

Given all of the factors, I think this is a profitable call.

Given your description; why would villain try to push you off of a one pair hand by over-shoving the turn?
I think you should call.

The overbet says to me that does not usually have a set or top two here. Hands he has that beat us are A4ss and A7ss IMO, then he has a bunch of Ax and draws.

Given the range we face, our reads and our preflop line that disguises our hand strength, we should call. We have a plan, let's go with it.

All that said, I'd rather 3bet pre because punishing wide ranges when we have the advantage of position and card strength is poker 101.

Seems like a weird line if he is trying to extract value from you. I would recommend three-betting a player like that pre but as played I don't think I can fold.

You planned to trap with this hand against someone you believe will bluff with up to stacks. You succeeded. Now call.

PS. On the flop, the vllain "bet." He didn't "raise."

Thinking through the hand.....I eliminated sets since there were no draws on the board and V lead for $50.....someone with a set in this spot would likely bet smaller to keep opponents in the hand and increase value. 2 prs were a possibility but based on V previous actions I expect him to stack off with almost any Ax and try to fold out any weak A.
Also if he has 2 prs I still have some equity with my Q and if the board pairs assuming he does not have AK.

With that in mind I decided to call and V shows pocket KK for a set.

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Good call. Bad result. but...good call.

Thanks man! Definitely a bad result!!
If people are thinking like us in this spot maybe we can use V line to exploit players that are thinking and expect a logical betting line.... If you think about V line it does not make complete sense if you flop a set on a dry board but it turned out to be ( Maybe accidentally ) very effective.


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Are you guys all leveling op? How many allegedly winning players said "villain overbet, so he can't be a set?" Like, of all the hands to overbet, the nuts is one of the best hands to do it with. How is it more likely that villain would overbet with AJ? Like, what does he expect to get called by when he jams worse than AQ for value?

People see LAG in the title, so they assume villain plays like a ******, but the hands op used to show villain was a lag don't make him seem maniacal or bad at all. How many of you guys raise QJo over limpers in the co and three barrel with AK? I know I do that stuff, and it doesn't mean I'm about to jam any gutter on the turn after getting called on the flop in a multiway pot. It's so tough for villain to be bluffing here, especially since we hold the Qs, and the bluffs he does have have decent equity against us.

It's unlikely V is leveling here......I think he plays this way by accident.....on the flop there are 3 opponents. .after flopping a set on dry board he should be trying to max value 3 ways ...
Not trying to bet everyone out of the pot.
Obviously it worked for V this time but this situation is not frequent enough to be profitable

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I think the 50 lead is good and pretty standard with sets on an A high flop, because people hate folding top pair on the flop and someone likely has an A 4 ways.

The overbet on turn is a little bit strange, but I guess he is scared of giving the possible flush draw odds to draw out on him, and that he didnt find any proper sizing with his awkward stack size. This is definitely a play from V that you should note and remember for future hands.

Edit: I also believe its a very costly mistake to use hand histories from heads up pots and believe those tendencies apply to multi way pots. Even is villain is very bluffy HU, his range gets massively tilted towards value when theres 4 people in the pot.