1/2 NL @ Sugarhouse

V1 - Button ($350)
V2 - Small Blind ($285) - MAAG, No read on villain, as he sat down about 3 hands before.
Hero - MP ($650)

Folds to hero who raises to 12 with QT

Button and SB call.

Flop (~35) Q 7 5

SB checks, Hero bets 20, button calls, SB raises to 65. What would TPT do here?

As it was played I decide to flat and evaluate the turn, the button folds.

Turn: ($185) 2

Small blind jams all in for about $205. What would TPT do here?

I am leaning towards a fold here. You rarely see this kind of aggro fast play line by a top pair type of hand, or by a smaller flushdraw. Turn is an easy fold in my opinion.

This smells like 75 suited for 2 pair or set of 5/7 an astonishing percentage of the time.

As discussed in alot of earlier threads, check-raise lines with this type of big bets relative to the stakes is so rare without the nutted made hands in LLSNL (and 1-2 stakes in particular), that i think its interesting to debate if we could even fold to the flop raise knowing that likely our only outs is the flush outs (wich if it comes in on the turn we might even not get the full double up by villain in worst case scenario).

As a default with absolutely no in game reads and being around 150 BB deep, i would lean to just let this one go to the flop check-raise already.

Your question really is does H have enough equity to call. How would you go about estimating your equity in this situation?

I assumed that the villain has one of the 3 holdings below:

Nut flush draw:
I am ahead and should call 100% of the time because he only has 7 flush outs and 3 Ace outs considering I block hearts (~80% equity).

Set:
Given my preflop raise both 55 and 77 are in his range. In that case I am well behind, with only a 8 outs myself. (~17% equity).

Two Pair:
I have to think he doesn't call the preflop raise with Q7, but may with 75 suited, if he has 75 suited I still have 9 flush outs, 2 Queen outs and 3 Ten outs for a total of 14 outs (~30% equity).

The hard part for me is figuring out what the villain has what percentage of the time. I have seen so many nut flush draws open shove in 1/2.

If we assume he has each holding 33% of the time then my equity is (.8*.33)+(.17*.33)+(.3*.33)= 43.01% equity. This isn't enough to call as I need over 52.5% to make it profitable. However....

There are also some random Qx holdings that people who don't have a preflop fold button in 1/2 play, and overvalue...do those get my perceived equity over 50%? I think you can sprinkle in a few JJ, 99, and open ended straight draws as well that maniacs like to shove with.

Does anyone favor any of these holdings scenarios over the others though?

Totally stereo typing here, but I'm comfortable GII here at any point in this hand until the Asian guy shows me he's not super gambooly. I'd cry and moan for about 20 seconds and then call. 86o is in a typical MAAG range here. You're way ahead of his range, behind some of the time but never crushed.

Calling the flop check-raise seems fine, as you are getting a very good price. Pretty easy fold on turn with no reads.

You dont need 52%, you need (205/595=)36%, which makes this a pretry standard call unless we have a clear read that villain is a non bluffing nit.

Fwiw this is the type of flop i like to x/call for balance/deception. B/call is obviously fine as well.

I like the bet/call on the flop.

After his flop raise, his range looks like 77,55,75s,8h6s.

I think effective stacks are just a little too deep and the pot not big enough to want to jam the flop. Pretty sure that if effective stacks were 220 or less I would just 4bet the flop and GII.

On the turn, this is an easy fold for me. It no longer looks like he can have 8h6h and with 9 outs our hand equity is around 19%.

Brianatca, if you think he has lots of flush draws, we should be 4-bet/getting it in on the flop as a favourite.

Our hand is even a very slight favorite vs 75s because of two-pair and trips outs.

In terms of how often he has each hand, he has:

77: 3 combos
55: 3 combos
75s: 3 combos
8h6h: 1 combo

Given how small the pot was, I don't see him taking this line that often with AhJh (which I think is usually happy to call) and presumably AhKh is usually 3-betting pre-flop.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

9,900 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q75

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QhTh	40.03%	3,963	0
77,55,7x5x,8h6h	59.97%	5,937	0

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

396 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q752

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QhTh	24.24%	96	0
77,55,7x5x	75.76%	300	0

If we treat sb's raise as a jam and assume button will fold then our pot odds on the flop are:

205/(35+205+65+65+205) = 42%

Pot odds on the turn are:
205/(35+205+65+65+205) = 36%

Thank you for awesome analysis Nogyong. If you want to know what happened...



In retrospect I think I should have shoved over top of his flop raise. It would have given him some fold equity but also given me better odds to draw out against the ranges I put him on (2 cards vs. 1). Given I called and evaluated, I think fold was the right play.

I disagree with a flop raise. What 3 bet flop hands will he call with? Q9 or worse?

Well, that wasn't expected...

I we had AhQh, that might change things a little.

Can you tell me how you came up with this?

205/595 = 34.45% which is the % your $205 is of the whole pot, however, you didn't deduct but $2 for rake so the $205 is a slightly larger % of the pot.

Now that we know V will call pre with Q7s, he'll also call with Q5s. However, will he jam with a flush & OESD? Let's say he will & make his range:

55,77, & assume he would have raised pre with QQ.
Then there's Q7s, Q5s, 75s, 86hh, 64hh

Against that range, you have ~33.5% equity & are a money dog by ~1%.

It's actually greater than 1% after you deduct all of the rake & the $3+ tip you'll toss the dealer for "savin' your ass" on the river.

Lol... I'm not challenging the maths, but there is some creative accounting going on (in terms of the range we're giving him now having seen the results).

And if we know we're a money dog then we shouldn't call. 34.5% equity (if we have that) only helps us break even. It doesn't make us profit. Is there some metagame ev in not folding?

If we magically knew his range was Q7s, Q5s, 75s, 86hh, 64hh then chips should have gone in on the flop when we were a money favourite and he might have made the mistake of folding or calling with one of the flush draws.

Zunelt presented the numbers well and takes into account rake (something I didn't do) but turn still feels like a clear fold to me. If its a check/call then we should have been committing on the flop with 2 cards to come instead rather than check/calling the turn.

Agree with Nogyong on the fold on the turn. Not because we now know what V has, but rather the % of the pot our $205 call is. I play with a lot of loose players; they call light pre, they'll bet middle pair in LP if checked to, etc., etc., but OTT they usually have something good [top 2 pair is good] or, they have a good read of their V[s].

Just because they're loose, doesn't mean they're stupid. I'm thinking of 1 guy in particular, who will play a LAG style & either win $800 - $1200 & leave, or lose 2 $300 buy-ins & leave. The money doesn't mean as much to him as the action; yet his play is tempered.

So, I'm always [at least trying to always] find a reason to fold. Then I consider good reasons to call. I won't skip this, because I don't like folding. This prevents me from finding good reasons to call, tossing in the chips [without considering reasons to fold] and then thinking "Oh yeah" after the pot is being raked to my V.

Do you like the idea of jamming the flop raise? Maybe he puts me on QQ, 77, or 55 since I was the initial raiser and lays down his 2 pair, certainly lays down his flush draw (although in 1/2 people hate folding).

I'm not changing my view because now I know his exact hand.

I mentioned earliet that if effective stacks were 220, I would have got this in on the flop - even if we had more info to suggest villain does this with draws. AhQh would have also given us more reason to jam.

Typically I find that on 2+2, I tend to be more willing to fast play monster draws than most people.

I just feel like in this spot, there's not that much in the pot and stacks are a little too deep to want to stack off. It's actually close and very tempting.

By the way, with his exact hand - he is never folding.