2/3 NL

Hero ($500) opens to $15 with AQo on the button
Villain in BB ($200ish) calls

Flop:
AK8xxx

Villain checks
Hero checks

Villain has been playing very snug and has rebought twice. Don't see myself getting 3 streets of value from this particular player, so I decide to check the flop.

Turn:
7x

Villain bets $60
Hero ???

I don't see how this 7 could hit his range, but this line just seems too fishy. Villain has not gotten out of line from the 2 hours playing with him and plays very straightforward ABC poker. Is this a fold? Or a call and reevaluate on the river?

Why check the flop? I agree you might not get three streets, but I don't see any reason to make the flop the one that you check. Add to that now you have lost the initiative, can't set the bet size, have no idea where you stand, with a hand that is under-repped. All of that is bad.

AP, you probably need to call and re-evaluate river. But next time, bet the flop...it will make the rest of the hand much easier to play.

You should be betting the flop the majority of the time here with air and with top pair. I actually don't mind checking with this hand once in a while to protect your check back range and add some deception to your playing style.

That said if you do check on this flop you're basically committing to calling turn and river on a bunch of runouts. You're very underrepresented and can't possibly fold. I can't think of a runout I'm folding if I check this flop except maybe a 4 flush.

If both SB and BB are around $200ish, I would open to $20+ to setup a trivial stackoff SPR with TP.

Our raise sets up an SPR of 6 which is a lot more awkward of a SPR than 4. An SPR 4 simply lets us PSB + PSB for stacks and gets in 10% of our stack preflop (if opponent outflopped us, good luck to him being profitable long term doing that). But the SPR of 6 is so much more awkward in that it'll require 3 postflop bets or 2 overbets, and there's just so much less chance we're good with TP doing so (plus villain only got 7.5% of his stack in preflop, which while still a lot, is going to be more profitable than getting in 10%).

So basically on the flop you have to decide if you're committed. With an SPR of 6, against most opponents I'm not comfortable playing for stacks, so I'm pretty cool with our check back to not play for stacks plus underrep our hand to induce bluffs / get paid off lighter on later streets.

Wow, dude just bet $60 into a $30 pot? I like our check back to induce bluffs, but I'm not convinced a guy playing snug starts overbombing the pot like that. How has a snug guy rebought twice? Is he getting his money in good and being outdrawn? If so, this might be a I'm-way-****ing-ahead-and-there's-no-goddamn-way-I'm-being-outdrawn-again bet size. He might also simply have a monster and realize at this point the only way to play for stacks is to bomb.

Even though we weakly checked the flop back to induce, against snug straightforward players I would lean towards a nit fold. Although it's possible I fold too much in this spot and should call to evaluate river.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So I agree with a lot of your points and I really appreciate the input, but for this particular section I just see any opponent in live 2/3 games just jamming it in on the river regardless. I am not worried about any flush or straight draws and I can't see him having any two pair hand. In terms of his rebuys, he does rebuy for only $200 at a time and he did get outdrawn a couple times. I mean I'm pretty confident with my hand, but I don't necessarily want to jam the turn either. Maybe the mentality is call the turn and call blank rivers?

FYP

Ha, truth.

Ggoodread,imoG

Folding turn to a single bet after we have underrepped our hand is terrible.

Easy call in this spot.

What size bet does Villain have to do before we reconsider?

In this case, a straightforward snug Villain who's been getting sucked out on just made a 2x PSB. We should be snap calling a shove from this guy?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Both of your questions aren't remotely relevant to the hand. Sure, I'm folding to a shove, but that's not close to the reality at hand - just as I'm sure you're calling a $10 bet but that's not what happened either.

Our hand is very underrepped vs a potentially steaming villain. If villain is trying to get value from a hand like AQ, why would he bet 2x pot?

Maybe we are ahead here, and maybe we are behind. If we slowplay a hand, sometimes we are going to take a loss. That doesn't mean we should snap fold to this single bet. We have a strong hand that's underrepped against a potentially tilted opponent whose bet makes little sense. That's a clear call to me.

FWIW, I was planning on snap calling any reasonable bet. But I think we have to at least consider changing our plan once this guy makes a very unreasonable bet.

GbutI'lladmitIprobablydofoldtooeasilytothefirstbet G

If he had donked the flop we could somewhat think about a nit fold here, but on the turn I lean towards call. He probably has a wide Ax range, some bluffs, and then some more nuttish hands. If he's rebought twice you should have a bit more info on him to go with here. There's a lot of river cards that complete tons of possible draws, so I expect to get a check on the river a decent amount. Any card that's not 2-5 changes the board texture quite a bit.

Unless we can say with some certainty with what these overbets mean from a certain player, we're just going to want to call a decent amount of our range. Given that we raised button, our range should be super wide, and AQ is the top of our 1-pair range. I think this has to be a call, even against a 2x pot bet.

Call. You underrepped your hand and got what you want which is a villain who thinks he can blow you off your hand. Folding is out of the question and a raise is overplaying your hand.