1/2 NL
Typical passive live game. Villain just sat down and lost to a short stack AK suited vs 22. The ducks of the short stack held.

Hero is a reg and doesn't recognize Villain. After his small loss in previous hand, he has $154 left to start the hand.


Villain opens to $8 in MP. Hero on button with AQ off and raises to $24. Blinds fold. Villain calls.

Flop ($51) As Qd Td

Villain checks. Hero bets $30. Villain calls.

Turn ($111) 7s

Villain checks ($100 behind). Hero bets ?????

I took this idea from Vanessa Selbst a few years back in a vid on dc. Basically the concept is you have an effective pot sized bet remaining. You can either jam it in here or
Bet half on the turn (induces a lot of the time) and ship the rest in on the river no matter what the river is.

Obviously the move is not standard and is based on what your perception of the Villains range is at the moment. For example, if you think they have a draw, shipping it in may be best because they can get away from the hand on the river. But if you think they have one pair or better, a payment plan method may be better.



So as for this hand, there are so many draws on the board and the flop is ideal for 3bet calling ranges.


Would you prefer the ship or payment plan?

FWIW I just ship turn. Villain is going to have a bunch of hands we are beating that he will call with.

Do we have the Ad in our hand?

With so many draws I like shipping the turn for these reasons:

1. As you said, he may call with a draw that will fold on the river. Especially combo draws like Adx (do you have the Ad?) Also, I don't know what his 3! calling range is, but I'm guessing he's probably a bit tilted and am saying it's AT+, lots of pocket pairs, probably some broadways (QT may be possible). I'm excluding sets when he just calls the flop.

2. If he has a made hand he'll call a shove with you don't want the river to scare him off.


3. On the other hand, he may call the smaller bet and fold to the shove with some hands like KQ, AJ, JJ, etc. I still tend to prefer shipping the turn. But the more I think about it the more making the smaller bet seems fine to me, I kind of like it, the difference in EV is probably marginal unless you really know your villain.

Oh just ship it in and don't overthink it. He's pissed off for losing to 22 he'll call with any semblance of a hand.

Stick it in

You want your opponents to make the biggest mistake possible. If you bet 50 you are giving him close to correctness to call with any reasonable draw, along with correct implied odds because with a 50 turn bet we ALSO commit ourselves to ANY river card.

As such, betting 50 allows the opponent to play almost perfectly.

BAD

shove turn - this causes our opponent to be in the position of making the biggest possible mistake. If they have any decent A they will most likely call, and in this spot most decent draws call, especially tilty opponents.

Gii

Hero bets $100.

He's possibly steaming and tilting. This makes it looks like you're picking on him.

Saying, "I put you all-in," like you're trying to own him will increase the chances of him calling.

Good question. No I did not have the Ad.

Not really overthinking it but I have been paying more attention to my bet sizing and have been applying this rule much more often.

I think the point of the play is to make the river call almost unfoldable.

If I bet $50 and he calls (which we can assume he either calls or shoves almost 90% of the time with a medium strength holding or better.

Then on any river, he only has $50 behind with $211 in the pot. The only chance that he folds here is if he has a flush draw that missed with no pair (which he might shove laughably).

Compare this to how often he will call a pot sized bet on the turn.... Assuming his range it is likely 40-50%.

It just seems more profitable to go with the payment plan.

Maybe not in this hand because of all of the draws, but any thoughts on its effectiveness for getting the entire remaining stack more often than shoving?

we've got less than a PSB left on a draw-heavy board that hits v's open/call 3bet range.

SHHHHHHHOOOOOVVVVVVEEEEEEE

$75

This one is a shove.

You get enormous value from AK, KQ, KT, QJ, JT, Ax, Kx, Jx, QT, AT, 98, diamonds, etc.

By the way, I would consider flatting pre-flop. But 3-betting is fine.

Also, it's really hard live and in game, but you need to work on sizing the flop bet better. This is exactly the type of spot where villain's calling range is going to be super inelastic relative to bet size. His continuing range is rich with hands he's not folding even against a 1 PSB (or more!) bet - tons of strong draws, top pair, broadway pair + draws, worse two pair, flush draws, etc. He's calling a larger bet nearly at nearly the same frequency as a smaller bet. And if you had bet, say, 45 on the flop, the turn would be the easiest all-in ever, right? And villain would be even more likely to stack off with many of his weaker hands / draws. Turn pot would be around 140 with 80 left. Ship!

The flop bet sizing is the biggest issue with the hand as played. Again, it's sometimes hard to size perfectly, but something to work on. Like I said, you want to consider a) the board + range dynamic and b) the remaining stacks to the turn.

So yeah, shove now.

By the way, two other things supporting a shove:

a) This board is incredibly dynamic, so it can change quite a bit on a river card, and
b) It's also incredibly wet, putting many draws and pair + draws in villain's range.

On this board texture, you really do need to shove. Re: dynamic board: It's a disaster when villain has Ax or two pair but folds when the river comes 4 to a straight... and it will come 4 to a straight around 16% of the time (4 J's and 4 K's). And re wet: Villain can have so many weak pairs + draws (e.g. JT) as well as flush draws that become worthless (or beat you!) if you wait for the river, and yet they'll often pay you off now as a huge dog, especially because a call ends the action and there's 1 card to come.

I would consider the smaller turn and river bet in a situation where the board is quite dry and quite a bit less dynamic and you have reason to think villain will fold to a shove but stack off to smaller bets. Take a spot where you have AK, board comes K72r. You bet, V calls, you go to the turn with 1 PSB and the turn card is a 6x completing the rainbow.

In that spot, you should probably bet smaller on turn and shove the river. You block the A scare card, so now there are only 3 scare cards to worse Kx, so only a 6% chance of a river A. Also, say villain has KT, then he only has 3 outs to beat you, also only 6%. So there are no real draws, and whoever is winning is very likely to win at the river.

But yeah, the hand you posted is totally different than that.

There was a hand posted here a few days ago with a similar-like AK spot that I described. But that hand came down slightly differently... K9x. That's enough to make it totally different. The turn also put out a flush draw, however unlikely it would be villain has a flush draw. Stacks left on the turn were also smaller, just ~80% of pot. In that case, I would shove the turn. People like to play broadway cards, and the possibility of the 48 combos of QJ, JT, QT makes it drawy enough to bet for value, and with smaller remaining stacks you get called more often.

Thanks for taking the time to respond in depth. I like this line of thinking and believe that over time this will make money over time. The more dynamic the board texture, side with a PSB. The more static go with the payment plan to get paid off more.

If you would have sized your flop bet properly we wouldn't be having this discussion...

$40 flop, shove $90 turn

/thread

By the way, awesome thread title.

Is "payment plan" a poker term? Should be!

I misread it as we had $154 left OTT (even though OP put it in brackets). With 100 the turn is an obvious shove.

We have less than a PSB... all in