$2/$5 NL

2 things that have happened lately.

1) Im on a bad run. Mostly bad run of cards but could be some bad play mixed in as well.
2) I rarely play big pots. Not sure this a problem. Just a note.

So I played this hand purposely in a way to play a big pot. I want to show how I played it compared how I (and most people) would normally play it and see what anyone has to say. I know the result so I have a pretty good idea what wouldve happened had I played it the normal way.

Its a 5 way limped pot. I have KhQd in the SB.

Normal way to play

Flop ($25) KcQc2s. I bet $20. MP and button both call.
Turn ($85) 5h. I bet $70. MP and button both call.
River ($295) As. Now I may bet/fold or check and if one of them bets I have a decision. Whoever bets may have JT or a busted draw.

The way I actually played it

Flop ($25) KcQc2s. Checked to button who bets $20. I call and MP calls

Turn ($85) 5h. I check. Now MP leads out $40. Button calls. I check raise to $180 trying to get a lot more money in the pot when Im almost certainly ahead and setting up a river shove. MP calls and button folds.

River ($485) River As. I shove for $275. The river sucks, but Im a little less worried about him having JT the way the hand played out this way. Maybe I shouldve still checked the river playing it this way though?

Thoughts on the hands played both ways and if anyone agrees that I will make more money playing it the 2nd way long term?

Like I said, I normally play it the first way, but if club comes on the turn, Im losing the same amount either way, but if it doesnt, I think I get a lot more money in the pot when Im likely ahead, playing the second way

Isn't the normal way to make a big raise preflop rather than to complete the SB vs a load of limpers? Then you can get it heads up, maybe represent something with a cbet when you miss and value bet as appropriate when you hit.

SB with a trouble hand isn't exactly the best spot to be planning on playing a massive pot.

As it was played I think MP is going to need a decent made hand or a monster draw to call your enormous turn raise. You give no read on your opponents so I can't comment on how likely you are to get more value with that turn raise sizing rather than a more normal; raise preflop, bet post flop line.

Apart from a combo draw or a handful of KXs/QXs for two pairs that you beat you just blow any other hand out of the pot. You'll get shown 43cc JTcc, ATcc, AJcc, J9cc, some stubborn AXcc or JT/43 without clubs, K5s, Q5s and maybe a few stupidly played sets of 2s and 5s.

Against the combo draws (V has 17 to 13 outs) you have 65% to 70% equity, vs his 2 pairs you have 95% equity and against his (very few) sets you have 10% equity. Therefore you should have good equity against his overall calling range and you are getting value now from his draws, which is good.

With the A on river only JT and 43 go ahead unless V a) limps AQ/AK/A5/A2 preflop and b) plays it real weird postflop. Like I said I think a competent player only calls the combo draws against that raise so that leaves only 2 combos that beat you vs 3 combos of K5s/Q5s and 2+ combos of AXcc that can make bad calls on the river. Therefore I think your river bet has some value against bad tight players and very loose very bad players but maybe loses value against loose gamblers who'll see all their draws through to river but fold anything that doesn't make a 5 card hand. Those guys will have enough offsuit versions of JT and 43 to make your river bet -EV.

I enjoyed how you did this post. It was a good way to think about a hand.

If you are never folding this river as played-- we have two things we need to consider.

1. What are we targeting for V to call-- that river sucks because I cant see any Kx type hands continuing. There arent many worse two pairs now. Definitely targeting a lot of NFD's that hit top pair on river.

2. Would Villain bomb a missed flush draw or make a play here a high frequency of the time. Obviously you shoving the river will rob V of that opportunity.

Interesting post-- I am curious to see what other responses are.

On a more personal note-- keep grinding Mike, you seem to be a really hard worker and I appreciate all your posts-- and your honesty within those posts.

daveMASS: good point about river shove preventing a bluff from villain's missed FDs. I suppose another approach to the river is a smaller bet targeting specifically AXcc...

Preflop is OK. Squeeze would be more common but limping with this sometimes to fish for a good flop is OK also. On the flop obviously leading is standard, you have top two pair but it's a somewhat wet board and you have lots of opponents. The flop check is also a useful diversification but risky multiway. I'm not sure I like doing both in a single hand, it's too creative and risky for little reward.

Turn check/raise is OK as long as your confident MP will bet again. River card is bad and the situation depends on what you know about villain. If villain likes to limp/call with AK/AQ I might give up river.

I like the river bet. Villain called the x/r on the turn getting 3.5:1. Unless he limped AK or AQ as someone else mentioned, then you're almost always ahead here. A set is gonna 3b the turn for stacks. JT is unlikely. He's either calling your river bet with 2 smaller pair or he's folding a missed flush draw (unless he calls with Ax). I don't think most villains would have the balls to make a river bluff here if you check to them if you only have $275 left.

I'm not sure I'd play that hand that way going forward. Suited KQ plays a lot better multiway. I think with KQ unsuited I'm looking to play smaller pots heads up.

Thank You, Sir

Without a read, hard to say if you are targeting kj or k5 with a river shove. In general, would expect river AP is x/f or x/c depending if villain capable of bluffing missed flush.

6 combos k5, 16 combos jt, lots of flush draw combos....

Also 2 pair could very likely choose to gii on the turn

Don't understand the shove at all

My bad... target nut flush draw. I think check is better as too many jt combos, but that makes it closer.

..... I played this hand purposely in a way to play a big pot....

I think I understand your frame of mind here, sometimes we get frustrated in some of our sessions and we look for an opportunity to play a big pot (and hopefully win) to almost kick-start our chip stack, confidence and image. And that's fine here, sometimes when this works it can turn around a whole session.

But I think you went too far here as played, especially the check on the turn cause if the hand would of checked thru on the turn you could of really screwed yourself (you could of cost yourself 2 goals: to play a big pot and also to win).

Best way here with your goals would have been to check raise flop big. You would be building a big pot and it would look a little fishy like you were on a flush draw/straight draw.

As far as long term which way makes most $, as always "it depends" lol; depends on your image your strengths and your opponents etc. IMO OOP lead out pot sized on flop and with this turn card pot sized bet on turn. You can't create a big win if opponents have nothing. If you lead out and all fold that's fine, you win

I think you make the most money by sometimes playing it the first way and sometimes playing it the second way. I like both approaches and they both have a lot of merit. The two things that I would suggest a different line of thought two people already pointed out, but I'll repeat them to try and build consensus or start debate:

1. I would prefer to a check raise on the flop rather than the turn. OOP you have to be VERY sure that villain is going to bet again, because so often it will check through when villain is on a draw and as possible pot control on a weaker hand. I think a flop check raise would charge the draws and allow you to set your price on the turn without having to count on villain doing part of the work for you.

2. I think the river shove might be a mistake. Certainly we're getting some inferior two pair hands to call us, but how often is AXcc calling us down here? Our line looks very strong now (c/c, c/r, shove) and any thinking opponent will realize that one pair is probably not good.

The hand I would be most worried about is A2cc. It makes sense for villain to take this line with this hand. JT seems unlikely unless it's specifically JTcc.

I find that it checks thru on the turn almost never when there were 2 callers on the flop and there is a flush draw on the board. The button is the one who bet the flop and he is going to assume that at least one of the callers is chasing the draw and will bet again with his K. Now if he bet the flop just because he was last to act and doesnt have a decent hand, then yeah, it will check thru which would suck.

IME it's more common that button bets cause last to act and is on some sort of semi-bluff with a hand that needs to improve but wants to take pot down on the flop.

What do we think about MP's range when he donks the turn? Would K5s and K2s be in there? Most certainly KQ, 22, A5cc, A2cc, possibly other flush draws, JTo, 55, AA? 43s?

If river bluff is likely, wouldn't we generate value by checking to induce? Villain will bet all the hands he would've called with (that beat us) plus the whiffed flush draws.
Smaller bet is an intriguing idea. Do you fold getting like 6:1 if he raises AI?

^ Agree with this. River shove accomplishes nothing. Folds out all hands we beat and will be called by all hands that beat us. If we are planning on getting it all in regardless then why not check? We win when he checks behind. We win when he bluff shoves and we call. We also SAVE money if gets MUBS and checks behind with a two pair that beats us or an (unlikely) played set.

Checking river seems far superior. I think you were planning on shoving most rivers but this is one of the few cards that came that changes the plan a little bit. It's good to think of this ahead of time to make the best decisions "planning the hand", etc.

I agree with this. If I check though, are you calling a shove?

If he's reasonably likely to bluff missed flush draws (the non-nut flush draws) then you'll quickly get to the equity needed to make the call. But some people never do this. If he's one of those, than it's a straightforward x/f.

Every hand I play I am trying to double up effective as my default. If I get a big flop for my hand I try to figure out how to best get it in. I like your second way of playing the hand better than the first, just because it takes the river decision away because as played the rest is going in on way or another, lol.

For your alternative method of playing the hand, I prefer check/calling by default here, while assessing who is betting into me. It hurts if they have JT but you can definitely get some players to bluff and I don't know if a missed ace high flush draw is calling your shove. Couple gross hands that could beat you are A2cc and A5cc but blah.

I generally would not expect to see 55 or 22 here. I imagine them shoving the turn to both protect their hand and realizing that you're pretty much not folding much here and that you are also never ahead of a set. Also 55 would be like a third pair hand on the flop and it's not likely to be bet or to make a call with the particular board.

TLDR;

KQ can't bet river for value profitably but it is close to break even so not a huge mistake. KQ can profitably x/c river if V bets all his 2pair+ and bluffs some of his busted flush draws. X/f river is likely a mistake unless villain V bets only A2+ and rarely bluffs busted FDs. X/c river > bet river > x/f river.



Long workings (with a hangover!):

On subject of river line: we need to know what villain is ranging hero on before we can decide what to do. Rerunning the hand from V's point of view:

You limp in from MP and see hero complete the SB. Hero could have a wide range but likely not much TT+ AJ+ KQ which would normally raise here. So hero has something like 99- AT KJ QJ JT AXs KXs T9s-32s QTs-42s (obviously depending on what V has seen hero do from SB in limped pots before).

Flop is KcQc2s. Everyone checks and button bets 20 into 25. Hero calls in SB.

V in MP now ranges hero on weak made hands and draws, middling strength and monsters shoud lead flop or check/raise so that discounts K2s, KJ, KTs, K9s and 22.

Hero's flop check/call range:
Weak made hands: K8s-K3s QJ QTs A2s 32s 42s
Draws: JT AXcc T9cc-32cc QTcc-42cc AcTx

Turn is 5h and MP leads out with a mixture of KX, turned two pair, and draws. Flop bettor on the button calls nd hero in SB check raises really big. What can hero do this with?

BTN looks to have a capped range here due to his limp preflop and only calling a half pot bet on the turn on a drawy board. BTN's strongest hand is probably KJ and he has a lot of draws in his range. MP thinks his own range looks like KX, K5s, Q5s and some draws.

Hero therefore looks like he is either;
1) turning a weak made hand into a bluff to fold KX and weak 2pair while having reasonable equity when called by draws. Something like K3dd or QThh.
2) semibluffing a big combo draw or pair+draw: ATcc A5-A2cc 32cc 43cc 54cc 65cc 53cc 75cc JTcc J9cc
3) semi bluffing bare straight or FDs
4) value raising turned two pair or a badly played set: 55 22 K5s Q5s 52s

River is As and hero bets allin for 275 into 485. V now puts hero on:
Draws that made it: JT 43cc
Draws that missed and are bluffing trying to rep JT: J9cc-53cc T9-54cc 32cc
2pair, sets and strongest AXcc: 22 55 A2s A5s K5s Q5s looking for value from V's KX/AX/QX bluff catchers.
Continuation of the pairs turned into bluffs from turn: weak KXs QXs (though some would give up or x/c river)

Hero probably x/c A8 A7 A6 A4 A3 in clubs and some 2pair+ too.

Therefore villain thinks he faces at most 14 combos of bluffs with busted flush draws, a handful of 1 pair turned into bluffs, 17 combos of straights, maximum of 13 combos of sets and 2pair, a handful of AXcc.

VI'll ain nweds to win 1/3rd of tge time on a rIver call to break even. Hero has, at most, 1/3rd bluffs in his range here. So V has to believe hero bluffs all missed FDs before he can call with a pair but since hero might be betting some AXcc V should probably fold all his KX and worse bluff catchers. Villain can only call with AXcc or better. That's 10 combos of AXcc of which 2 are 2pair that beat hero's actual hand. V also has maybe 9 combos of 2pair K5 Q5 52 that call and lose to hero's KQ. V also has the same 17 combos of straights but probably no sets. Villain probably has the same busted FDs as hero too for 14 busted draws villain might bluff with if checked to.

So KQ beats 17 combos and loses to 19 combos when villain calls. Therefore KQ shouldn't value bet the river.

If KQ checks and villain bets all his straights for value and bluffs all his FDs that didn't pair the river then KQ should call because 14/(14+17) is greater than the 1/3 breakeven threshold.

If V won't bluff enough FDs and only value bets straights and 2 pair that beat KQ then hero should just x/f the river.

If V bluffs no FDs but bets all 2pair then KQ wins 9 times and loses 19 times when it calls. 9/28 is slightly worse tan 1/3 so you don't need many bluffs to make the call breakeven.

Results:

I lost to 4c3c. I see the merit in checking the river. While playing, I decided I was shoving any river after the turn check raise. The A was probably one of very few cards that shouldve made me check instead. I probably wouldve had to call the river anyway so the result was the same this particular time.